Handicapping the Early World Series Odds for the 2015 Season
The 2015 World Series is only 350-something days away.
Between now and then there will be an offseason of free-agent signings and trades, spring training, a 162-game regular season, a couple of wild-card games, the division-series round and the championship-series round. Suffice it to say that just about anything can happen between now and Game 1 of the 2015 Fall Classic.
Even from this ridiculously early perch, it's still clear to see that certain teams are better positioned than others to win the title next season. What follows is a rundown of that landscape from the teams that should already be focused on 2016 and beyond to the squads that have the best World Series odds of all.
There's also room for a couple of clubs that could be dark-horse contenders in 2015 and another team that just won't go away.
The Teams That Should Be Looking Toward 2016 and Beyond
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The Odds: 100-1 (1 percent)
The crazy part about baseball is that you just never know what's going to happen.
Who would have thought during the summer that the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals would make it to the World Series?
As unpredictable as baseball is, the following five teams simply don't have the talent to compete for a ring in 2015:
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
- Minnesota Twins
- Philadelphia Phillies
Out of this group of five, the Diamondbacks appear to have the brightest immediate future. The D-backs dropped 98 games in 2014, but chief baseball officer Tony La Russa is now calling the shots in the desert.
Dave Stewart has been installed as the club's new general manager, and La Russa has all sorts of World Series pedigree. La Russa managed the Oakland Athletics to a title and picked up a pair of rings with the St. Louis Cardinals. Adding a fourth with Arizona would be yet another remarkable achievement to add to his already-Hall of Fame resume.
The Dark Horses
2 of 5The Odds: 40-1 (2.4 percent)
The New York Mets have what every team in baseball is looking for: talented young starters.
In fact, the club has so many arms that GM Sandy Alderson might just be able to trade one this winter in order to bring in an impact bat or two. Bill Madden of the New York Daily News suggests that the team could kick the tires on the Boston Red Sox's Yoenis Cespedes.
Quietly, the Mets finished tied for second place in the NL East in 2014. If the team manages to upgrade the dismal offense without severely weakening the pitching staff, a 2015 wild-card spot could be in New York's future. From there, who knows what could happen.
The Miami Marlins are another NL East squad that falls into the dark-horse category. Whether the Fish factor into the playoff chase next season hinges on the health of Jose Fernandez. The right-hander, who is rebounding from Tommy John surgery, told The Associated Press via ESPN.com that he was feeling "incredible" after a throwing session in the beginning of October.
Fernandez isn't scheduled to return until the middle of the season, but he's not sticking to any precise time line.
"Maybe later, maybe before. Who knows?"
Along with Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins have two of the most dynamic players in baseball.
The Team That Always Finds a Way
3 of 5
The Odds: 15-1 (6.25 percent)
Aside from a low-profile move to pick up Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean didn't do much of anything at the trade deadline. As the veteran executive explained via ESPN's Mark Kreidler, he simply didn't think his team was good enough to justify selling off valuable prospects.
"I don't know how close we are to winning a division title or a wild card. We haven't played too well."
Instead of going in the tank, the Giants proceeded to laugh in the face of everyone who had counted the team out before October even began and won a third World Series in five years.
By now, the lesson is clear: With Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy pulling the strings, the Giants are always in contention.
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The Best Team on Paper
4 of 5The Odds: 10-1 (9 percent)
With a rotation of aces, the Washington Nationals were perfectly set up for a big October run.
Unfortunately for the club, that didn't happen.
The NL East winners dropped the opening two games of the National League Division Series to the Giants at home and ended up playing just four playoff contests before Washington's season came to a crashing halt. After missing out on the postseason altogether in 2013, the Nats are rapidly earning a reputation for underachieving.
Even though it's difficult to argue with that assessment, there's still a lot to like about the squad in 2015. From Stephen Strasburg to Jordan Zimmermann to Doug Fister to Gio Gonzalez, all the aces remain.
There's also no question about whether Bryce Harper will show up in the postseason. Along with Miguel Cabrera, Harper is just one of two players age 21 or younger to ever go yard three times in a single series, per ESPN Stats & Info.
The Top Contender
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The Odds: 8-1 (11 percent)
Everyone knows the script.
An expensively assembled Los Angeles Dodgers squad is picked to win it all, and then a less talented team takes a two-by-four to the Dodgers' playoffs dreams. In each of the past two postseasons, the St. Louis Cardinals have played that role.
2015 could be different.
Ned Colletti has been relegated to the role of senior advisor, and Andrew Friedman is now the president of baseball operations in Los Angeles. One of the top priorities for Friedman will be to rebuild a bullpen that utterly failed the team in 2014. Aside from that, he'll have to figure out who will play shortstop and how to get rid of overpaid underachievers like Andre Ethier.
The team will also have to hope that Clayton Kershaw can translate his unreal regular-season form into the playoffs.
Note: All videos courtesy of MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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