NFL Week 9 Picks: Final Predictions and over-Under Odds Before Thursday Night

After a week spent looking back on the first half of the NFL season, it's time to kick off the second half. Week 9 gets underway Thursday night with a key NFC South clash between the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers.

It should be an entertaining game, but it's a tough one from the over-under point of view. That's mostly because of the Saints' splits (3-0 at home, 0-4 on the road). New Orleans knows it must step up in these situations to make the playoffs, but it's hard to have confidence in exactly how it will play out.

Ultimately, there are better options on the board for Week 9. Let's check out the complete slate on tap, starting with Thursday's contest, along with predictions for each matchup. That's followed by a deeper dive into the top choices.

Week 9 Over-Under Picks

Date	Road	Home	Line	Pick
Oct. 30	Saints	Panthers	48	Over
Nov. 2	Buccaneers	Browns	43.5	Under
Nov. 2	Cardinals	Cowboys	48	Under
Nov. 2	Eagles	Texans	48	Over
Nov. 2	Jets	Chiefs	42	Under
Nov. 2	Jaguars	Bengals	43.5	Over
Nov. 2	Chargers	Dolphins	44	Over
Nov. 2	Redskins	Vikings	44.5	Under
Nov. 2	Rams	49ers	43.5	Under
Nov. 2	Broncos	Patriots	55	Under
Nov. 2	Raiders	Seahawks	43	Over
Nov. 2	Ravens	Steelers	47.5	Under
Nov. 3	Colts	Giants	50.5	Over

Top Selections

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Under)

The line for this game is somewhat inflated. The Steelers just put up 51 points in a game in which Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 yards, and that's fresh in everybody's mind. But the trends from this intense rivalry point toward a low-scoring game.

When the two teams played in Week 2, there were 32 total points. The last time one of their clashes reached at least 48 points was in the 2010 playoffs. The last time that happened in the regular season was in 2007, despite the fact that these teams face off twice per year.

While the defenses aren't on the same level they were on five years ago, they haven't completely fallen off, either. Both sides still rank in the top half of the league in yards allowed. Chris Bradford of the Beaver County Times notes that Mike Tomlin was particularly impressed with the Ravens' red-zone defense:

In recent years, it hasn't mattered what has happened in other games. When these two squads face off, it's usually a hard-fought game without a ton of points. The first meeting of the season kept that trend alive, and the second will likely do the same.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants (Over)

Indianapolis was on the receiving end of Pittsburgh's aforementioned 51-point outburst. The poor defensive effort ended the team's five-game winning streak and exposed some weaknesses in the secondary.

One thing that's always important to consider when making over-under picks is pace. Both these teams like to play fast. The Colts are averaging 74 plays per game, tops in the league, and the Giants also rank inside the top 10 at 65 plays per game.

So the game is likely to feature a lot of throws from Andrew Luck and Eli Manning. That's also good news for the over, as the Colts (21st) and the Giants (25th) have both struggled to slow down opposing aerial attacks so far this season.

All told, it seems like the only scenario that will see this game stay under is if the Colts are able to build a huge lead before halftime and then slow it down in the second half. Expect a strong enough performance from the Giants after their bye to prevent that and push the game easily over.

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots (Under)

The latest meeting between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady is much like the rest. The general consensus is that it will be a shootout with two of the best to ever to play quarterback going back and forth for 60 minutes.

Not so fast. Both the Broncos and the Patriots feature solid defense. Denver ranks fourth in yards allowed and sixth in sacks. New England ranks 12th in yards allowed, second against the pass and ninth in sacks.

Furthermore, the early forecast from the Weather Channel calls for temperatures in the 40s with winds above 20 mph. That suggests the teams will rely more heavily on their run games. That's not uncommon for meetings between these teams, as pointed out by Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com.

"Yes, since the start of the 2006 season, these two teams have played eight times, including twice in the playoffs, and the team that has pounded out more yardage in the run game has won six of the games," Legwold wrote.

Yes, Manning and Brady are playing at an extremely high level. But they are also smart. They aren't going to take any unnecessary risks against tough defenses, especially if the weather is poor. There will be a fair number of points scored, but the high line makes under the safer pick.