NFL Picks Week 9: Updated Lines and Final-Score Predictions for All Games

Week 9 of the NFL season brings a variety of lines to the table.  While there are more sizable favorites than there have been in recent weeks, opportunities exist for teams to change the increasingly set narrative that has formed over the season's first half.

Taking a look at the full 13-game slate this week, it is clear there are several opportunities for bettors to exploit some potential misperceptions surrounding the league.  A seven- or eight-game sample is prone to plenty of fluky variation, and in spotting those underlying trends, it is possible to exploit these odds.

Using the lines from Odds Shark, let's examine the lines and predict the final scores for each game, highlight three particularly intriguing matchups for bettors.

Matchup	Spread	Score Prediction
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers	NO -2.5	Saints, 28-24
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys	DAL -4	Cardinals, 30-21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns	CLE -7	Browns, 19-16
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings	WAS -1	Vikings, 20-10
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -12	Bengals, 38-13
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins	MIA -1	Chargers, 31-30
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs	KC -10.5	Chiefs, 27-13
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans	PHI -1	Eagles, 23-17
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers	SF -11	49ers, 41-17
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks	SEA -16.5	Seahawks, 40-21
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots	DEN -3	Patriots, 34-31
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers	Even	Ravens, 20-19
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants	IND -3	Colts, 34-26

Cardinals over Cowboys

In a matchup of two surprising division leaders, the Arizona Cardinals figure to hold the upper hand over the Dallas Cowboys, even with the game at AT&T Stadium.  Despite their shiny 6-1 record, advanced metrics seem to dislike the Cards, noting their shaky point differential and a reliance on an unsustainably high third-down conversion rate.

However, Arizona does create pressure with its exotic blitz schemes, which often employ heavy dime personnel with three to four safeties and three heavy 3-4 defensive linemen.  Washington exploited the Cowboys last week with an unexpected dose of pressure, sacking Tony Romo five times.  After that surprise, the Cardinals might be the worst stylistic matchup for Dallas:

The Cowboys defense is still getting by with smoke and mirrors, conceding 6.1 yards per play, 29th in the league.  Look for Carson Palmer to test the deep perimeter and stretch the diagnostic skills and range of safeties J.J. Wilcox and Barry Church. The Cardinals will hold down the Dallas offense long enough to tilt time of possession and secure the road win.

Chargers over Dolphins

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After two losses in five days, the San Diego Chargers have suddenly fallen back into the thick of the AFC Wild Card race.  The Miami Dolphins remain sneaky contenders for their first playoff berth since 2008 behind an excellent all-around defense and improved play over the past month from Ryan Tannehill.

However, Philip Rivers and the big Chargers receiving corps look like a poor matchup for the Dolphins' undersized secondary.  While Miami was able to hold the Chicago Bears' towering tandem of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery in check two weeks ago, San Diego can also threaten the seams with tight ends Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green.  Moreover, Rivers has excelled in the most critical situations, extending drives and controlling time of possession:

That third-down stat is particularly ominous for the Dolphins, who have allowed opponents to convert 44 percent of third downs at Sun Life Stadium, the fifth-worst home mark in the league.  Despite facing a daunting cross-country trip, expect the Chargers to get back on track after a pair of tough losses.

Patriots over Broncos

The weekend's premier matchup will see much of the discourse centered around Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning.  Of course, the two future Hall of Famers will not actually face each other, as the game's outcome will result from which defense possesses the better formula to stymie the other's incandescent offense.

Despite Denver's defensive resurgence, the Patriots appear uniquely well-equipped to stop the Broncos' plethora of options in the passing game.  In Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Pats have a pair of big, physical press-coverage corners who can disrupt Denver's timing-based passing game.  

With Revis likely to cover Demaryius Thomas, Browner's coverage of Bears tight end Martellus Bennett last week likely provided a preview of how New England intends to deploy him in Week 9:

Against Manning's Broncos, the Pats have generally focused on eliminating the shallow drags, digs and screens that make up Denver's menu of pet plays.  If Manning is forced to try to win on the perimeter, the advantage suddenly tilts to the home team.  

Meanwhile, Denver's defense had its issues with Antonio Gates last week.  Look for the Patriots to target T.J. Ward and Quinton Carter with plenty of two-tight end sets, as Rob Gronkowski, Tim Wright and Brandon LaFell will help the Pats keep up with Manning on the scoreboard.