NFL Week 9 Picks: Game-by-Game Over/Under Predictions

Bettors who enjoy life on the wild side are sure to love NFL Week 9 offerings from Las Vegas, including some very tricky over/under spots that create plenty of pause.

Over/under selections are normally a way to break even for bettors. The spread and actual winners can create plenty of losses, but straightforward point totals are normally much easier to predict, which creates some financial padding.

Then again, Week 9 is a dandy. Most lines are modest at best when it comes to totals thanks to the up-and-down nature of the league this season. This creates a risk at what was once a bit of a safe zone, so deeper thought than normal must be put into over/under calls.

As always, those who invest the time will put themselves at a serious advantage against the house.

NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	O/U Pick	Pick ATS	Reason
New Orleans at Carolina (Thurs., Oct. 30)	NO -3 (48)	O	NO	Two teams headed in opposite directions on a short week favors the one with momentum.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland	CLE -7 (44)	U	CLE	Cleveland is much, much better than Tampa Bay, which says a lot about both.
Arizona at Dallas	DAL -4 (N/A)	N/A	DAL	Dallas is the best team in the league right now and has an offense that will abuse one of the worst pass defenses.
Philadelphia at Houston	PHI -2 (48)	U	PHI	As long as Philadelphia totes a balanced attack, the Eagles can win.
NY Jets at Kansas City	KC -10 (41.5)	U	KC	Next question.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati	CIN -13.5 (43)	O	JAC	Cincinnati seems to play up and down to the competition this year. The spread is entirely too large.
San Diego at Miami	MIA -1 (44)	O	SD	San Diego remains one of the best teams in the league and will turn things around against a struggling Miami offense.
Washington at Minnesota	WAS -1 (N/A)	N/A	MIN	Minnesota has a stingy defense that can take advantage of a miserable quarterback situation.
St. Louis at San Francisco	SF -10 (44)	U	STL	St. Louis always shows strongly in divisional battles, if not pulls off an upset.
Denver at New England	DEN -3.5 (55)	O	DEN	See analysis below.
Oakland at Seattle	SEA -15.5 (43)	O	OAK	The Raiders are bad, but nobody should pretend the Seahawks inspire this much confidence after a miserable stretch.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh	EVEN (47.5)	U	BAL	See analysis below.
Indianapolis at NY Giants (Mon., Nov. 3)	IND -3.5 (51)	O	IND (Outright)	Indianapolis has a strong defense that will slow Eli Manning and Co.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 11 p.m. ET, Oct. 28.

Breaking Down Toughest Over/Under Calls

Denver (-3.5) at New England

When Tom Brady and Peyton Manning get together, the scoreboard has a way of lighting up. 

Then again, these are not the same old teams around the two legendary quarterbacks, either. Brady's New England Patriots actually rank No. 2 overall in the league with an average of just 210.9 passing yards allowed per game.

One of the major reasons that one of the league's best pass defenses comes from Foxborough is a corner by the name of Darrelle Revis, who is primed and ready to go for the heavyweight AFC bout, as captured by Christopher Price of WEEI.com:

On the flip side, Manning's Denver Broncos actually tout the league's best rush defense, which allows just 72.4 yards per game. John Elway and his staff made a few additions this past offseason to create the strong defense, such as players like Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward.

Team	Pts/G	Yds/G	TO Margin
Denver	32 (1)	398.4 (6)	+4
New England	29.8 (3)	363.1 (10)	+11

The improved defenses would help explain why the over/under seems a bit low, especially when one considers that both teams combine to average better than 60 points per game.

New England has scored 43, 37, 27 and 51 points in its last four games, and in that same span Brady has thrown 14 scores to no interceptions. Denver has scored 41, 31, 42 and 35 in its last four, while Manning has thrown 14 scores to two interceptions.

The two are evenly matched, but it is quite clear over is the way to go. Denver seems an obvious pick to win outright with the team as a whole looking more dominant as of late—New England is a few weeks removed from beating the New York Jets by just two points—so expect both for maximum financial gain.

Prediction: Broncos 35, Patriots 30

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Al Behrman/Associated Press

Bettors have been down this road before. 

The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers met back in Week 2, which saw the Ravens emerge victorious, 26-6. For those keeping track for over/under purposes, that is 32 total points, about par for the course for these two bitter AFC North rivals.

As Steelers coach Mike Tomlin points out, via ESPN.com's Scott Brown, Ben Roethlisberger's offense was unable to convert when it mattered most:

Now, the Steelers have scored 30 and 51 points in their last two games, but look at the two before that—just 10 points in a loss to Cleveland and 17 in a win over lowly Jacksonville.

	ATT	YDS	AVG	TD
Le'Veon Bell	141	691	4.9	1
LeGarrette Blount	50	243	4.9	2

In short, the Steelers are quite erratic, which is horrific news against the Baltimore defense. Roethlisberger and Co. are at their best when the ground game, led by the effective duo of Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount, find consistent success.

Against the league's No. 7 overall run defense, that does not figure to be an option on Sunday Night Football.

Bettors have to know that this will be a gritty, low-scoring affair. Baltimore has been better defensively and has already proven game against this Steelers offense, so expect a clean sweep and a final total well below what Las Vegas has on the table.

Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 17

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay and Tennessee on bye.