Arizona Fall League 2014: Stock Watch for All the Biggest Prospect Names
If you love prospects, then it doesn’t get any better than the Arizona Fall League.
With six teams comprised of players from all 30 organizations, the prestigious AFL offers top prospects an opportunity to refine their skills long after the end of the minor league season.
For some players, the competition in the AFL is superior to anything they’ve previously experienced as a professional. For others, it’s a chance to prove to their organization that they’re ready to be challenged at the highest level.
But playing in the AFL after a full minor league season is easier said than done, which is why every year there’s a contingent of big-name prospects that put up disappointing numbers.
Having already looked at the early returns from the leagues’ top 10 prospects, we’re expanding our coverage this week to highlight every top-50 prospect—as determined by Prospect Pipeline’s end-of-season rankings—participating in this year’s Arizona Fall League, including those players that have already seen their fall campaign come to an end for one reason or another.
With that being said, here’s a look the latest stock movements for all the big-name prospects in the 2014 Arizona Fall League.
Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros
1 of 12
2014 AFL Stats: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 4 BB, 14 K (4 GS)
Mark Appel finally showed the promise that made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 draft (and the No. 8 pick in 2012) after moving up to Double-A Corpus Christi, as he pitched to a 3.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 38-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39 innings.
Appel’s second-to-last outing easily was the best of his brief career, as he struck out 10 batters over eight scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and one walk. After his unexpectedly successful final month of the season in Double-A, Appel continued to resuscitate his prospect stock with a strong showing in the AFL.
Appel didn’t yield a run over his first three starts, allowing four hits and three walks in 12 innings during that span, but the right-hander was tagged for three runs on five hits in five innings in his latest outing against Peoria.
Overall, opposing hitters are batting just .158 against Appel this fall.
Stock: Up
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds
2 of 12
2014 AFL Stats: .348/.446/.630, 2 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 9 BB, 12 K (12 G)
Jesse Winker posted a 1.006 OPS in 53 games at High-A Bakersfield to open the season, but his production fell off after moving up to Double-A Pensacola (.677 OPS in 21 games), likely due to the partially torn tendon in his right wrist that ultimately ended his season in late July (but didn’t require surgery).
Fully healthy for the AFL, the sweet-swinging Winker has quickly proved the wrist issue is behind him by leading Surprise with a .348 batting average, .630 slugging and 1.077 OPS while also tallying six extra-base hits and 14 RBI in his first 12 games.
Stock: Up
Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox
3 of 122014 AFL Stats: .275/.313/.373, 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 4 SB, 2 BB, 16 K (13 G)
Tim Anderson’s introduction to the Southern League was brief but successful, as he batted .364 with four extra-base hits in 10 games to conclude the regular season. In general, Anderson made more consistent contact than expected and flashed good raw power in his first full season, but his raw approach and pitch recognition will require considerable refinement moving forward.
The 21-year-old shortstop got off to a rough start in the AFL, going 1-for-9 with six strikeouts in his first four games, but he’s since hit safely in seven of the past nine games with a .282 batting average, three extra-base hits and six RBI, but also 10 strikeouts, during that time frame.
Stock: Up
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Josh Bell, OF/1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
4 of 12
2014 AFL Stats: .220/.304/.320, 5 2B, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 6 K (13 G)
Josh Bell hit safely in eight of 10 games to open the AFL and even put together a seven-game hitting streak, but the switch-hitter has cooled off as of late with three hits in his last 22 at-bats.
It’s also worth noting that Bell, a corner outfielder for his entire professional career, is playing first base for the first time in the AFL, which sheds light on the four errors he’s committed in 13 games.
For more on those errors, here’s MLB.com’s Tom Singer:
"They've been fielding -- rather than throwing -- errors, due to his unfamiliarity with the position. In a recent game, for instance, he muffed an easy grounder about 15 feet off the line as he tried to glove it while already making his move toward the bag -- unsure of whether the pitcher could get there in time.
"
The Pirates will have one of baseball’s best outfields for years to come, so it makes sense for the organization to begin exploring ways to get Bell’s promising bat in the lineup.
Stock: Holding Pattern
Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals
5 of 12
2014 AFL Stats: 9.2 IP, 2.79 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 4 BB, 15 K (3 GS)
Though injuries delayed Zimmer’s season debut until mid-August, the right-hander was able to work his way up to Triple-A Omaha earlier this month to pitch out of bullpen in the Pacific Coast League playoffs.
Zimmer underwent surgery to remove bone chips in his right elbow after his 2012 professional debut but appeared healthy throughout 2013 until August, when he was shelved with shoulder tightness. The same injury delayed his start to the 2014 season, while a subsequent lat injury suffered while rehabbing cost the right-hander a crucial year of development.
Zimmer looked sharp in his first two AFL starts but left his third outing, on Oct. 21, after only one inning after re-injuring his right shoulder. On Monday, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweeted that the right-hander likely was headed for shoulder surgery, but Zimmer’s MRI came back clean on Tuesday, per Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star. If he were to undergo surgery during the offseason, it’d likely be a “minor arthroscopic procedure.”
Stock: Down
D.J. Peterson, 3B/1B, Seattle Mariners
6 of 12
2014 AFL Stats: .191/.321/.319, 3 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 9 BB, 10 K (13 G)
D.J. Peterson is batting only .191 to begin the AFL and is 3-for-21 over his last five games, but he’s still shown good power, with four of his nine hits going for extra bases, and his nine walks compared to 10 strikeouts highlights his patient approach against quality pitching.
Peterson’s bat is good enough to support a move to first base—his likely position at the highest level—and after hitting 31 home runs and 31 doubles in his first full professional season, it’s safe to say the 22-year-old has everyone’s attention entering 2015.
Stock: Holding Pattern
Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
7 of 122014 AFL Stats: 9.2 IP, 0.93 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 6 BB, 13 K (4 GS)
Tyler Glasnow experienced control issues in his AFL debut (0.2 IP, ER, 3 BB) but has since turned in three consecutive scoreless starts, combining for nine scoreless innings during which he’s struck out 12 batters compared to only three walks. In general, the level of competition in the AFL is proving to be a good test for Glasnow, a test he’s quickly passing with flying colors.
Glasnow is a bad, bad man when he’s around the zone with his fastball, as the 6’7” right-hander’s huge extension toward the plate, plus velocity and consistent downhill plane make the pitch incredibly difficult to drive. It also allows him to pitch more aggressively with his slider, which is a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch when he’s able to work off the heater.
All signs point to the 21-year-old right-hander opening the 2015 season in Double-A.
Stock: Up
Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
8 of 12
2014 AFL Stats: 11.0 IP, 6.55 ERA, 2.18 WHIP, 7 BB, 8 K (4 GS)
Archie Bradley’s strike-throwing issues from the regular season carried over into the AFL, as he struggled to pound the zone in his first three starts and failed to work deep into games. That being said, Salt River’s defense didn’t exactly help Bradley in those games, as errors resulted in five unearned runs with the right-hander on the mound. However, there still wasn’t a good excuse for Bradley’s 12 hits allowed and 6-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only seven innings.
Thankfully, Bradley’s latest start was a step in the right direction, as the 22-year-old right-hander fired five scoreless innings on Oct. 24 against Glendale.
"It's something that I've been working for, to have a start like that where things kind of rolled together and clicked for me," Bradley said, via William Boor of MLB.com. "I've been searching for a start like that, working my tail off. For it to come together today is a good feeling."
According to Boor, Bradley surrendered two hits and a walk in the first inning but settled in to face the minimum nine hitters over his final three innings of work. However, he also notes that Bradley, over those final three frames, was aided by a pickoff at first base while catcher Peter O’Brien threw out three attempted base stealers.
Stock: Holding Pattern
Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
9 of 12
2014 AFL Stats: .268/.349/.446, 6 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 7 BB, 17 K (14 G)
After batting .181/.253/.306 last fall in 79 plate appearances, Corey Seager has began his second tour in the AFL with eight extra-base hits in 14 games and is batting .268 overall.
Seager, 20, has been especially hot of late, with a .500 batting average, two doubles, one triple and three RBI during his current five-game hitting streak. He has looked better as of late with back-to-back two-hit games, and he’s also batting .500 (7-for-14) with five extra-base hits against left-handed pitching.
Stock: Up
Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
10 of 12
2014 AFL Stats: .196/.260/.348, 2B, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 3 BB, 13 K (11 G)
Addison Russell impressed in the 2013 AFL by hitting .282/.361/.435 in 97 plate appearances, but this year he headed to Arizona attempting to make up for the lost time after playing only 68 games during the regular season.
However, Russell’s second stint in the AFL has already come to an end, as the Cubs decided to shut down the highly touted prospect after only 10 games.
Russell didn’t put up impressive numbers during his brief time in the desert, but the 20-year-old shortstop went out in style with hits in his final three games, including a two-run home run in his final at-bat.
Stock: Up
Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
11 of 12
2014 AFL Stats: .267/.313/.417, 4 2B, 3B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB, 3 BB, 6 K (14 G)
After batting .276/.338/.389 with 31 extra-base hits and 28 stolen bases in 126 games between the Double- and Triple-A levels, Francisco Lindor likely would have been fine without a trip to Arizona. However, the Indians clearly wanted Lindor to tack on an additional month’s worth of games, suggesting that he could be in the mix to take over at shortstop next spring.
The 20-year-old switch-hitter has basically picked up where he left off in Triple-A, with 16 hits (six extra-base hits), eight runs scored and two stolen bases in 14 games. He's also hit safely in five of the past six games.
Stock: Holding Pattern
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
12 of 12
2014 AFL Stats: .263/.311/.298, 2 2B, 6 RBI, 5 SB, 4 BB, 12 K (13 G)
Byron Buxton originally was supposed to begin the year at Double-A New Britain, but he ended up missing the first half of the season at High-A Fort Myers with a wrist injury and then most of the second half after suffering a concussion in a terrifying outfield collision in his first Double-A game.
Given the amount of developmental time he missed during the regular season, the Twins sent Buxton, the sport’s top prospect, back to the Arizona Fall League.
Unfortunately, Buxton’s chance to get back on track once again has been derailed by an injury, as the 20-year-old outfielder exited Monday’s game after jamming the middle finger on his right hand while diving for a ball in the outfield, according to a tweet from LaVelle E. Neal III. Buxton is set to undergo an X-ray on his hand, and he’s highly unlikely to return this fall even if the tests come back clean.
Buxton had been heating up prior to the injury, with a .429 batting average and three stolen bases in his last three games.
Stock: Down
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