Pac-12 Football: Ranking the Job Security of Pac-12 Coaches
With the month of November still in front of us, the temperature of each Pac-12 coach's seat is liable to change at least a few degrees over the next five weeks. Whether that's a little bit cooler or a little bit warmer all depends on how the teams play, but it's safe to say not everyone has a deadbolt lock on their job.
Relative to other conferences, though, the Pac-12 has a bunch of coaches who have virtually zero chance of getting fired. Ranking those coaches isn't easy, so one way to look at it is by thinking about where they would stand if their teams lost every remaining game.
Over half of the coaches would still have a job, while some might be left updating a resume. While that might not be the fairest way to judge job security, temperatures heat up quicker in some towns than others. If Colorado loses the rest of its games, Mike MacIntyre will probably be okay. If Oregon does the same thing, Mark Helfrich might be in trouble, but that's the nature of college football, especially when your program has built such a strong reputation.
Also factored into the equation here is the remaining schedule. You have to take into account the road ahead and factor that into how secure jobs are for every coach.
We're ranking them from twelve on down to one in order of the most secure to the least secure. Will anyone be fired at the end of the season, or will this be the first year in recent memory with zero coaching changes?
12) Rich Rodriguez, Arizona
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Rich Rodriguez entered the 2014 season with a cool seat in terms of job security, and at present he sits on a block of ice. That's how well things have gone for his Arizona Wildcats, who are now 6-1 on the season with an excellent shot at winning the Pac-12 South.
Should his team win out, you're also looking at a potential playoff birth for Arizona, which will have beaten Oregon on the road, UCLA, Utah, Arizona State and maybe that same Ducks team in the conference championship game. Quarterback Anu Solomon has been as poised as any signal-caller in the country, despite being just a redshirt freshman, and some credit has to go to Rodriguez.
The other aspect of his job security lies with the fact that the current success is the result of a very young team. Solomon and running back Nick Wilson (also a freshman) are joined on offense by a wealth of sophomore wide receivers. One of the best defensive players to date in the league has been linebacker Scooby Wright. Rodriguez has things rolling in Tucson, and his job is as safe as they come.
11) Todd Graham, Arizona State
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Arizona State coach Todd Graham took over for Dennis Erickson and built the Sun Devils into a serious contender in the Pac-12, even reaching the conference title game in 2013. His job isn't necessarily less secure than Rodriguez's down the road, but he'll have a few more questions to answer next season without players like D.J. Foster and Jaelen Strong on offense, and Damarious Randall on defense.
Nevertheless, both the present and future are extremely bright in Tempe, and despite teams like USC and UCLA reeling in talent and looking poised to become nationally relevant at any moment, Graham has the Sun Devils in position to once again win the division.
They'll have to get by Utah first (and Arizona later), but few would have predicted the current scenario back in August. Arizona State had just lost guys like Will Sutton and Carl Bradford to the professional ranks, and though the offense looked scary, on paper the Sun Devils looked like a team poised to finish third in the division (at best). One hiccup against UCLA was followed by a string of impressive victories—and Graham is one of the chief reasons for their good run of form.
10) Sonny Dykes, California
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At 4-4, Cal is having an average season by most standards. But compared with the Bears' disastrous one-win campaign in 2013, things are clearly moving in the right direction. Losses at Arizona and to UCLA were by a combined six points, and the 59-41 loss to Oregon was competitive for much of the game.
Numbers don't always tell the whole story, but they're a pretty good indicator of the Bears' current trajectory. In 2013, they averaged 23 points on offense and gave up almost 46 points per contest on defense. They now score 41 per game and give up roughly that same amount, meaning both sides of the ball have improved.
We're not going to pretend that allowing more than 40 points per game is a good thing. We also won't say Cal's narrow escapes against the two worst teams in the conference—Washington State and Colorado—weren't worrying. However, quarterback Jared Goff looks like a future NFL starter and Dykes' system is really starting to hit its stride. If the improvement is any indication, Dykes should be in Berkeley for the long haul.
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9) Steve Sarkisian, USC
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By most measurements, USC has underperformed in 2014, but there are several factors to consider when you look at Steve Sarkisian's job security as the head coach.
To begin with, the roster is absolutely loaded with top-notch talent and remains at fewer scholarship players than every other team in the league. When you add in another handful of blue-chip recruits, Sarkisian will have a full depth chart to work with (although using that as an excuse for losses is unfair to the teams that beat the Trojans).
The second, albeit slightly less important reason is that it's his first year as the coach. Even at schools like USC, coaches in their first season are given a longer leash. USC is two last-minute touchdowns and a head-scratching effort at Boston College away from being undefeated, and close should count for something when you talk about what a team is capable of. USC can and should be better, but Sarkisian's job is pretty secure at the moment.
8) Kyle Whittingham, Utah
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Before the season, Utah coach Kyle Whittingham was sitting on a warm seat that threatened to become hot if the Utes were unable to top the mediocre 5-7 record of the previous two campaigns. But Whittingham flipped the script and now leads a team that is 6-1, with wins over both USC and UCLA.
The only reason he's listed in front of Steve Sarkisian as having a slightly less-secure grip on his job is the road ahead, where the Utes will face Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona in succession before ending the year at Colorado. This team will likely win a couple games, but it wouldn't be entirely shocking to see the Utes drop four of the final five, which would end the year on a sour note.
But in looking at the positives, the defense is allowing just over 21 points per game and the offense has found its workhorse running back in Devontae Booker. Quarterback Travis Wilson has played pretty well and backup Kendal Thompson has shown glimpses of strong play, suggesting a smooth transition in the offseason. It could be a tough November, but Whittingham is nowhere near a hot seat entering the final month of the season.
7) Chris Petersen, Washington
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We're now at the sixth coach on the list, but don't let that fool you into thinking that somehow Washington coach Chris Petersen doesn't have a firm grip on his job. He does, in part due to a defense that may be the second best in the conference behind Stanford, but also because (like Sarkisian) Petersen is in his first season.
The Huskies have struggled as of late, and the offense has been atrocious without any standout running backs and some extremely inconsistent quarterback play from Cyler Miles. But the defense, a weakness for years, has been remarkable outside of a couple games. Youngsters like John Ross at wideout and Lavon Coleman at running back also help peel back the curtain on a smooth road ahead.
The Huskies end the season with games against Colorado, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State and Washington State. Three wins would mean an eight-win season, and fans can live with that. Petersen is safe because it's his first year and he has a strong reputation. Fans probably wanted to see a little more so far, but it's what he does in year two that will determine his future.
6) David Shaw, Stanford
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Every year for the past four years, Stanford has been lauded as a national championship contender, but they always seem to come up short. Sometimes, like in 2011, it's not by much. This year, the Cardinal are off the mark by a mile.
No, this isn't a 2-6 team with the wheels off, but the Cardinal are just 5-3 with conference losses to both USC and Arizona State. The Sun Devils in particular thumped Stanford 26-10 in a game that put the dreadful Cardinal offense on display for national jeering.
Quarterback Kevin Hogan seems to have regressed throughout his career—which is a shame, given that the defense is as good as any, allowing just over 12 points per game. If Stanford can beat Oregon for the third straight season and win out to capture the north, Shaw will be fine. If it suffers another couple of losses, Shaw could be facing some very different questions entering 2015 than he has in years past.
5) Mark Helfrich, Oregon
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Oregon fans will never be completely satisfied with a head coach not named Chip Kelly unless he wins a national championship, and that's just the nature of the beast for Mark Helfrich. After a home loss to Arizona, the sky was falling in Eugene until the team recovered with wins over UCLA, Washington and Cal.
With the new playoff format allowing four teams to have a shot at a title, the Ducks are in perfect position to secure a bid should they win out, which means Helfrich is safe for the moment. But the loss to the Wildcats proved that he's never completely secure in the eyes of fans, so can you imagine what defeats to Stanford and Utah would do?
It's not an unreasonable scenario, but with the way the Ducks are playing, it isn't likely to happen. Given how the team has bounced back from the tough loss—not to mention the dominant win over Michigan State—it's clear that Helfrich knows what he's doing. Because of that, his job isn't going to go anywhere. At Oregon, however, that thought could change in a matter of weeks, which puts Helfrich at No. 5 in our rankings.
4) Mike MacIntyre, Colorado
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We've finally reached the point in our presentation where the hot seat actually exists and the coaches have something very real to prove the rest of the way. At Colorado, it's obvious Mike MacIntyre has put together a more talented version of the Buffaloes than we're used to seeing, but he's only got narrow wins over Massachusetts and Hawaii to show for it.
After winning four games last year, dropping back down to two isn't the best look. With remaining matchups against Washington, Arizona, Oregon and Utah, it's hard to see more than one more victory at the very most.
This could easily be a four-win program after looking at overtime losses to both Cal and UCLA, and MacIntyre's excitement late in the game against the Bruins was infectious. No matter what happens, he's probably not going to get fired. But a losing team like the Buffaloes can't really afford to start a downward trend again—and that could be what's happening here.
3) Jim Mora, UCLA
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The idea that Jim Mora might soon be facing job scrutiny was laughable two months ago, but now it's very real. The 2013 Bruins went 10-3 and had all the makings of a national championship contender entering 2014.
Despite just two losses to their name, the Bruins have struggled in every game (except for a great effort at Arizona State), and more defeats are almost certainly on the way with games against Arizona, Washington, USC and Stanford.
The talent and momentum suggested a team that would at least win the Pac-12 South, but now it could finish as low as fifth place in the division. For as much charisma as Jim Mora exudes, the shtick gets old when it's accompanied by losses. A team with quarterback Brett Hundley and all that talent on defense should be better, and though Mora is yet another coach who's probably safe this year no matter what, he too is starting to feel the pressure.
2) Mike Leach, Washington State
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The main thing Washington State coach Mike Leach has going for him is that he's at a school all too familiar with losing in recent years. He also coaches an exciting brand of football that has showed promise on a handful of occasions each year.
Last year it even led to a bowl appearance, but Leach's Cougars have been a major disappointment thus far in 2014. Aside from a crazy, come-from-behind victory at Utah and narrow, somewhat controversial defeat to Oregon, Washington State has been flat-out bad (not to mention the defense, which has been particularly hideous).
When you have a quarterback in Connor Halliday who's already thrown for 3,800 yards and 32 touchdowns and your record is 2-6, something is wrong. Leach has a safe job at the moment, but he's staring at 2-10 and the approaching graduation of his starting quarterback. If solutions aren't found in the month of November or shortly into the 2015 campaign, Leach's days—however exciting they may be at times—will be numbered.
1) Mike Riley, Oregon State
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Five years ago, Mike Riley looked like a coach who would be in Corvallis for the rest of his days, and any mention of a hot seat was probably about a row of Reser Stadium bleachers caught in the summer sun. Riley, despite being No. 1 on this list, may actually be the least fireable coach in the Pac-12 due to a contract that adds on a year every time the Beavers hit six wins and go to a bowl game.
It's currently extended through 2021, but how long can Oregon State fans watch Oregon dominate the northwest while their Beavers toil back and forth between bad seasons and mediocre ones? Last year, the team went 7-6 and it was almost as if it had been invited to the Super Bowl. Of course, it also had the combination of Sean Mannion and Brandin Cooks. Cooks is now in the NFL, while Mannion has been bad and the defense goes from somewhat competent to hapless every other week.
John Canzano thinks real pressure on Riley may be the only answer to getting back to being a Rose Bowl contender (via the above link):
"I'd like to see if Riley approached his job differently if he had 18 months remaining on his contract. I'd like to see him tested with the kind of heat that built him into the molten coach he is today. That would be some sociological experiment.
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It may not come down to that, however. If the Beavers struggle to once again reach six wins while watching the Ducks play in the Pac-12 title game, Riley should finally be feeling the heat.
All stats via cfbstats.com
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