2014 ATP BNP Paribas Masters: Predictions for the Top Stars in Paris
The BNP Paribas Masters began in Paris on Sunday, with the 16 seeded players in action from Tuesday after being given a first-round bye.
The tournament, above all, has two over-riding narratives.
The first, of course, is Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer’s ongoing battle to end the year as No. 1 on the tour.
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There are currently 850 points between the all-time greats, with 2,500 left to fight for: 1000 in Paris and 1500 at the ATP World Tour Finals in London next month.
The second revolves around London: There are currently six players fighting for four spots to join Djokovic, Federer, Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic at the prestigious end-of-season tournament.
There is now a fortnight between the Paris and London tournaments, rather than just a week as in previous years, which should make for a more reflective competition.
Below I try to make sense of all this by predicting how the top 10 seeds, in descending order, will perform in the penultimate tournament of the year.
Halloween is approaching, after all, so now seems as good a time as any for some good, old-fashioned egg-on-face.
Disappointingly for the vast majority of neutrals, the former world No. 5 has failed to qualify for the finals for the second year running.
Capable of undeniable brilliance on his day—as proven by the fact he is the only player on tour to have Grand Slam wins over all of the "Big Four" (Federer, Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray)—he has fallen behind rising stars such as Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori and Cilic this year.
Moreover, the 2008 winner has been handed a tough draw, with Nishikori and David Ferrer likely standing in the way of a semi-final placing.
Ahead of the Davis Cup final between France and Switzerland next month, Tsonga’s compatriot Richard Gasquet might be a better bet to cause an upset or two, given he is in the easier half of the draw.
Prediction: Round of 16
Grigor Dimitrov
The Bulgarian will need to go all the way in Paris to have a realistic chance of reaching next month’s finals, but he seems remarkably relaxed about the prospect of missing out, per The Sport Review: “I haven’t calculated points too much, but if I go, I go. If not? More rest for me!”
This tournament, then, feels like a chance for him to end the year in style more than anything.
He should have little difficulty in reaching the round of 16, where he will likely meet an in-form Andy Murray.
Dimitrov, however, has defeated the Scot in both of their meetings this year (including in straight sets at Wimbledon) and may prove somewhat fresher after a less intense period.
Regardless, neither are likely to advance beyond the last eight, where Djokovic awaits.
Prediction: Quarter-final
Andy Murray
Three titles in the space of a month would be a top achievement by anyone’s standards, let alone a player whose form fell off a cliff for much of the year like Murray’s.
Indeed, he has dug deep and shown real grit to all but qualify for next month's finals.
A quarter-final appearance in Paris would guarantee it, but it would take an astonishing sequence of events for him to fail to qualify for his seventh-successive finals, as Mike Dickson writes for the Daily Mail:
"Even if he was to lose his opening match, all of the following would have to happen for him to miss out on the season-ending finale in London:
Grigor Dimitrov wins tournament or David Ferrer reaches final
Milos Raonic reaches final
Tomas Berdych reaches semi-finals
Kei Nishikori reaches third round
"
Having just played in the longest match of the year against Tommy Robredo in the Valencia final, saving five match points in the process, the Scot could be forgiven for taking his foot off the gas in Paris.
The second round will be his 20th match in five weeks and a potential round-of-16 meeting with Dimitrov may prove one challenge too far.
Prediction: Round of 16
Milos Raonic
The big-serving 23-year-old has shown signs of tiredness lately and has slipped behind David Ferrer for the last spot in the race to London.
He is on the kinder half of the draw, however, and looks to have an easy first match, but with Gasquet and Federer potential opponents in the ensuing rounds, his chances of going far—and thus competing in the finals next month—don’t look particularly high, especially after his quarter-final exit in Basel last week.
Prediction: Round of 16
Thomas Berdych
The 2005 winner has been a model of consistency over the last few years and has already reached two finals this month, thrashed in China by Djokovic before beating Dimitrov in Stockholm last week.
The hard-hitting Czech should breeze through to the quarter-finals, where he will likely meet Wawrinka in a repeat of the Australian Open semi-final.
The Swiss has won the duo’s last four encounters, but Berdych is in stronger form at present and should have enough to book a semi-final meeting with Federer.
The surface may be slightly too slow for him to cause a major upset there, however.
Prediction: Semi-final
Kei Nishikori
The 24-year-old could well be the dark horse in Paris, arriving in good form having recently won the Japan Open and reached his first Grand Slam final at the U.S.
He is also looking to reach his second Masters 1000 final after losing to Nadal in Madrid in May.
Following that match, the Spaniard’s father and coach, Toni Nadal, admitted via USA Today that only injury prevented Nishikori from defeating Nadal: “We don't deserve the victory, (Nishikori) deserves it, he played better than us the whole time. We had a lot of luck today. We didn't really come back, he was hurt.”
That performance appeared to give him more confidence than any until his incredible four-set victory over Novak Djokovic in the U.S. Open semi-final last month.
A repeat meeting at the same stage here potentially awaits for arguably Asia’s biggest sporting star at present, and the timing couldn't be much better to repeat the outcome following the Serb's announcement last week that he has become a father.
Prediction: Runner-up
David Ferrer
The Spaniard arrives in Paris as the 2012 winner and last year’s runner-up, hence his seeding as No. 4.
He currently sits a marginal 25 points ahead of Raonic in the race to London and thus simply needs to match or better the Canadian’s performance in Paris to stay ahead.
Like Murray, Ferrer has devoted himself to a hectic period in order to qualify for a fifth-successive finals and should have enough in the tank to do so, even if he will almost certainly run out at some stage on the tougher side of the draw of this tournament.
Prediction: Quarter-final
Stan Wawrinka
November is a big month for Wawrinka, with not only his second finals to look forward to but also a Davis Cup final versus France.
The Swiss will thus be desperate to recover the form that saw him win his first Grand Slam earlier in the year at the Australian Open.
He is significantly aided by being in the easier half of the draw alongside his compatriot Federer and, like Berdych, should encounter few problems before potentially meeting the Czech in the quarter-final.
But, as discussed, Berdych may be too strong for him at present.
Prediction: Quarter-final
Roger Federer
The legendary 17-time Grand Slam winner may not have added to that tally this season, but he has enjoyed a remarkable year nonetheless.
He is looking for his sixth Masters 1000 final out of nine for the season, and as already much discussed, he appears to be in the easier half of the draw by some distance.
In his current free-flowing mood, he should have more than enough for any of Raonic, Gasquet, Wawrinka or Berdych on the way to the final.
Moreover, if he manages to avoid Djokovic (as I am predicting) in the final, he will significantly close the gap on the Serb in the race to end the year as No. 1 ahead of next month's finals.
Prediction: Winner
Novak Djokovic
The Serb will appear at his first tournament since becoming a father last week.
For any other player, this would surely be a distraction that would significantly increase the likelihood of an early exit.
But we all know his robotic qualities by know.
His last tournament ended in a semi-final loss to Roger Federer at the Shanghai Masters, so he will be doubly determined to ensure the Swiss does not get the better of him once more.
But it may prove a challenge too tough even for him, especially given he will likely face two of Murray, Dimitrov, Ferrer and Nishikori prior to the final, all of whom are racing to qualify for the finals.
The Serb won this tournament as well as the finals last year, but he may feel he is better off conserving his increasingly precious energy for the latter this time around.
Prediction: Semi-final
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