Power Ranking College Football's 1-Loss Teams
The College Football Playoff selection committee is set to release its first public poll this week. To echo the sentiments of colleague Adam Kramer: Good luck. Chaos has been in abundance this season, and that doesn't look like it's going to change with several important games upcoming in the next month.
However, the playoff picture should become at least a little clearer around that same time. There are 17 one-loss teams in the latest Associated Press Top 25; that number is going to decrease, perhaps dramatically, before the season ends.
That's not to say the playoff selection process will be easy, but it shouldn't be as convoluted as it is now. Which one-loss teams are in the best position to make that four-team field? Which ones aren't? We try—emphasis on try—to find some clarity below.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
We've divided the one-loss teams into three categories based on their likelihood of playoff contention as of today: Contenders, teams that need help and teams on the outside looking in. Many of these teams control their conference destiny or have key games coming up to impress the committee. Others, however, are on the outside looking in and need a lot of help.
Keep in mind that the teams mentioned below are only the one-loss teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25. Also, this is all but certainly subject to change.
| Team | Record | Kercheval's Power Ranking | AP Rank |
| Auburn | 6-1 | No. 1 | No. 5 |
| Notre Dame | 6-1 | No. 2 | No. 6 |
| Ole Miss | 7-1 | No. 3 | No. 7 |
| Alabama | 7-1 | No. 4 | No. 3 |
| TCU | 6-1 | No. 5 | No. 10 |
| Oregon | 7-1 | No. 6 | No. 5 |
| Michigan State | 7-1 | No. 7 | No. 8 |
| Kansas State | 6-1 | No. 8 | No. 11 |
| Arizona State | 6-1 | No. 9 | No. 15 |
| Baylor | 6-1 | No. 10 | No. 12 |
| Georgia | 6-1 | No. 11 | No. 9 |
| Ohio State | 6-1 | No. 12 | No. 13 |
| Arizona | 6-1 | No. 13 | No. 17 |
| Nebraska | 7-1 | No. 14 | No. 14 |
| Utah | 6-1 | No. 15 | No. 18 |
| Duke | 6-1 | No. 16 | No. 24 |
| East Carolina | 6-1 | No. 17 | No. 21 |
Contenders
Auburn
The Tigers have one loss—38-23 at Mississippi State, the No. 1 team in the country. That's nothing to be ashamed about. Additionally, Auburn has an early-season win over Kansas State. Though neither side played its best football that night, the win looks better as the year goes on. K-State is 6-1 and atop the Big 12 standings.
Auburn's remaining schedule is brutal: at Ole Miss, at Georgia and at Alabama. Auburn could also potentially be an intriguing two-loss team based on its schedule. That plays right into head coach Gus Malzahn's comments that there could be a "good chance there will be two teams from the West, or at least two teams from the SEC, to make the Final Four."
Notre Dame
Notre Dame had a bye in Week 9, so the theme for the Irish is the same as the week before. There's not a real marquee win for this team so far; the best is a 17-14 squeaker against Stanford. All the same, Notre Dame looked excellent in a 31-27 loss to Florida State.
A loss is a loss, but at the same time, not all losses are created equal. Without "rewarding" Notre Dame for losing, we should also be nuanced enough to know that the Irish showed they can play with anyone.
There's one standout game remaining on Notre Dame's schedule: a Nov. 8 trip to Arizona State. Interestingly, Notre Dame tried to get out of that game with the Sun Devils because of other scheduling obligations with the ACC. However, the game was kept, and it could be the difference between the Irish getting into the playoff and not.
Ole Miss
Like the rest of the top half of the SEC West, Ole Miss is still very much alive in the divisional, conference and playoff picture. A 10-7 loss to LSU is a setback, but not a season-killer. Games against Auburn and Mississippi State, both at home, will provide opportunities for the Rebels to get back in the four-team field.
There are concerns about the offense, especially if the Rebels are hurt along the offensive line. Laremy Tunsil left the LSU game with a pulled right bicep, according to Hugh Kellenberger of The Clarion-Ledger. Other key players, like defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche and safety Cody Prewitt, are banged up as well.
Alabama
Since losing to Ole Miss in early October, Alabama has been on a roll—so to speak. A one-point win over Arkansas aside, Alabama has won its last two games by a total of 93-20. Granted, Texas A&M and Tennessee aren't the best opponents, but the Tide are taking care of business and looking good doing it.
Alabama's final month of the season is tough, going to Baton Rouge to play LSU before heading home for two games against Mississippi State and Auburn. The Tide do not have a divisional tiebreaker against Ole Miss but are still in decent position for a possible playoff spot.
TCU
One of the most dramatic turnarounds from 2013 isn't just a great story. Rather, TCU has a real shot of winning the Big 12 and potentially grabbing a playoff spot. The 82 points scored by the Frogs on Saturday against Texas Tech were eye-opening, but this offense has been putting up video game numbers all year.
The Frogs don't control their Big 12 destiny, as they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with Baylor. If TCU and Baylor win out, it creates an interesting situation at the top of the Big 12 as far as a playoff spot is concerned.
Oregon
Oregon is a fascinating team in the playoff discussion. On one hand, the Ducks have one of the more impressive nonconference victories (Michigan State). On the other, this team seems particularly vulnerable. Only recently has the offensive line shored up, but the defense is still questionable. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is a Heisman contender—perhaps the favorite—but what about the guys around him?
ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit has Oregon as one of his four playoff teams. If the Ducks win out and win the Pac-12, they'll likely be assured a spot.
Michigan State
Upon further review, reports of the Big Ten's death were premature. Michigan State has rallied since an early-season loss to Oregon to win six straight, the most impressive of which came against Nebraska. However, the Spartans' most important game comes in two weeks at home against Ohio State. Beat the Buckeyes and win the Big Ten, and Michigan State will be in the playoff conversation.
Would the Spartans be automatic, though? Strength of schedule may be a negative factor.
Kansas State
The Wildcats may not be the sexiest team in college football. They may not score the most points. But they are well coached and typically get better as the season progresses. As of Sunday heading into Week 10, K-State sits atop the Big 12 standings and has just one loss—to Auburn. Winning out is likely the only way the Wildcats have a shot at the playoff. That means beating TCU, West Virginia and Baylor on the road.
Need Some Help
Arizona State
The good news is that Arizona State controls its Pac-12 South destiny. Games against Utah, Notre Dame and Arizona will provide plenty of chances for the Sun Devils to impress the playoff committee. That said, there's an anchor holding this team back: A 62-27 loss to UCLA in September. The Bruins are 6-1, but perhaps the ugliest 6-1 team in the country. Getting housed like that isn't a good look.
Baylor
Like just about everyone else, Baylor would need to win out to have a shot at the playoff. However, let's say the Bears run the table and finish 11-1. The lone loss would be to West Virginia, which, barring a collapse by the Mountaineers, isn't bad. However, there are no marquee nonconference wins for Baylor. Beating TCU and, hypothetically, Oklahoma and Kansas State is solid. Is it enough? It may depend on what the rest of the landscape looks like.
Georgia
With so much focus on the SEC West, the East division has gone under the radar. Georgia controls its destiny at 6-1, but it has a bad loss to 4-4 South Carolina. Without a doubt, it would have to win the SEC to have a chance at a playoff spot. But even then, Chris Dufresne of the Los Angeles Times tweets an interesting possibility: Would Georgia still be left out in favor of an SEC West team?
Ohio State
Like Arizona State, Ohio State has a "yeah, but" holding it back ever so slightly: a Week 2 loss at home to Virginia Tech. The Buckeyes have improved since then, while the Hokies have gone belly up. It's not Ohio State's fault Virginia Tech hasn't played well, so the committee may focus more on the Buckeyes if they're playing their best football at the end of the year. There's still only one marquee game on the schedule: Nov. 8 at Michigan State. Suffice it to say that's a must-win.
On the Outside Looking In
Nebraska
The Huskers are emerging as a favorite to win the Big Ten West, but their best win to date, and maybe for the remainder of the year, was against Miami. This is similar to Georgia in the SEC East.
Arizona
Arizona is one missed field goal kick away from being undefeated and in a completely different part of the conversation. The Wildcats close out the season against Utah and Arizona State, so there are some opportunities to creep back into a legitimate playoff conversation.
Duke
It's going to take winning the entire ACC—against Florida State and only Florida State in the championship game—for Duke to sniff a playoff conversation. There's simply too much ground to make up and the schedule down the stretch is relatively soft.
Utah
The Utes are, ever so slowly, becoming a fascinating team to keep an eye on. However, it has a bad loss to Washington State in which it allowed the Cougars to come back from 21 points down to win 28-27.
East Carolina
The Pirates are a popular group-of-five team to play in one of the six major bowls, but a playoff berth seems all but officially out the window.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
