Large MLB Contracts That Could Still Be Moved in Offseason Trades
When it comes to contracts in baseball, the general rule of thumb is that the larger the deal, the more difficult it is to move the player attached to it.
It makes sense, considering that the vast majority of clubs aren't in a position to make the kind of lucrative long-term investments in players that big-market clubs like those in Los Angeles and New York can.
Yet from Prince Fielder to Alfonso Soriano, Jose Reyes to Vernon Wells, players with large contracts find themselves changing teams on what seems like a yearly basis.
We'd be foolish not to expect that trend to continue as baseball's offseason draws near.
Which high-priced players could arrive in spring training wearing a completely different uniform? Let's take a look?
Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers
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Remaining Contract: Seven years, $133 million, $15 million team option for 2023*
2014 Stats: 157 G, .263/.314/.333, 38 XBH (2 HR), 41 RBI, 27-of-42 SB
Elvis Andrus took a step in the wrong direction in 2014, at the plate, on the bases and in the field. His .647 OPS ranked 18th among 22 qualified shortstops, and he led the American League in failed stolen base attempts (15).
Additionally, advanced metrics were unkind to his work defensively, grading him as well below average in both DRS (minus-13) and UZR/150 (minus-4.4).
Between his diminished production and his albatross of a contract, Andrus would appear to be one of the most immovable players in baseball. And maybe he is.
But he's also just entering what are supposed to be the prime years of his career, and the Texas Rangers have no shortage of talented middle infielders who could potentially replace him at the position.
*Option in 2023 becomes guaranteed with 550 plate appearances in 2022 or 1,100 plate appearances in 2021-22. If he's traded or claimed on waivers, that option becomes a player option. He can block trades to 10 teams beginning in 2016 and will have full no-trade protection if he's traded. Andrus can opt out of the deal after the 2018 and 2019 seasons.
Carl Crawford, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Remaining Contract: Three years, $62.25 million
2014 Stats: 105 G, .300/.339/.429, 25 XBH (8 HR), 46 RBI, 23-of-29 SB
As the non-waiver July 31 trade deadline approached, Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan tweeted that the Los Angeles Dodgers were shopping Carl Crawford, though he noted that the team would need to pick up a large chunk of the money left on his deal to facilitate a trade.
While Crawford is coming off his most productive season in Los Angeles, injuries limited him to only 105 games. That makes it three years in a row in which he's failed to crack the 120-game plateau, and as he gets older (he'll celebrate his 34th birthday in August), chances are he's not about to get more durable.
Yet you can't completely discount there being a general manager out there who believes Crawford can remain productive for at least two of the three years left on his deal—and that the cost to obtain him would be negligible if that team took on all of the money he's due.
Andre Ethier, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Remaining Contract: Three years, $53.5 million, $17.5 million team option ($2.5 million buyout) in 2018*
2014 Stats: 130 G, .249/.322/.370, 27 XBH (4 HR), 42 RBI
Andre Ethier has long been thought to be the most likely member of a crowded Dodgers outfield to be moved this winter, a belief shared by many, including Bleacher Report's Scott Miller.
But is there a team out there that actually wants Ethier?
He's a mediocre defender at all three outfield positions and is coming off the least productive season of his career, with his .691 OPS nearly 150 points below his lifetime mark of .832 heading into 2014. What power he had has disappeared, evidenced by his four home runs, and he offers nothing in the way of speed.
While moving him would require the Dodgers to either pick up all of his remaining salary or accept a package of non-prospects in return, Los Angeles cannot head into 2015 with the same crowded outfield that it operated with in 2014.
*Ethier's 2018 option becomes guaranteed with 550 plate appearances in 2017 or 1,100 plate appearances in 2017-18.
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Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Remaining Contract: Four years, $96 million, $20 million team option ($6 million buyout) in 2019*
2014 Stats: 30 GS, 9-9, 2.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 204.2 IP, 2.6 BB/9, 8.7 K/9
While his win-loss totals leave much to be desired, Cole Hamels is coming off his fifth consecutive 200-inning season, one that saw him pitch to a career-best ERA.
Philadelphia is willing to trade its ace but, despite the money left on his deal, still has a "steep" asking price attached to him, rival executives told CBS Sports' Jon Heyman.
Yet as Heyman notes, when you consider the deals that Jon Lester and Max Scherzer are likely to receive as free agents, the four years and $96 million left on Cole Hamels' contract doesn't seem nearly as big an expense as it is.
Even if we factor his 2019 option into the mix, Hamels, when compared to his free agent counterparts, is still going to cost a team less, financially at least.
While Hamels can block trades to 20 teams, the chance to pitch for a contender—Pat Gillick, Philadelphia's interim president and CEO, recently told CSN Philadelphia's John Clark (via CSN Philly's Corey Seidman) that the team isn't a contender in 2015 or 2016—might be enough for him to waive that no-trade clause.
Philadelphia is rebuilding, and Hamels is the team's most valuable trade chip. By the time the team is truly back in contention, Hamels will be in his mid-30s.
A parting of the ways this winter makes sense for all parties.
*Hamels' option becomes guaranteed at $24 million if he has 400 innings pitched in 2017-18, including 200 in 2018, and doesn't finish 2018 on the disabled list with an elbow or shoulder injury.
Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
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Remaining Contract: Two years, $50 million, $23 million team option ($10 million buyout) for 2017
2014 Stats: 153 G, .223/.310/.380, 42 XBH (23 HR), 95 RBI
As Philadelphia's disappointing 2014 campaign came to an end, reporters asked Ryan Howard whether he felt like he had played his last game as a member of the Phillies.
His response, via CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury, was telling:
"I don’t know. I have no clue what’s going to happen. ... It just hasn't been anything that’s crossed my mind. I have no clue. There’s always possibilities because it’s business or whatever, but it’s never crossed my mind. I don’t know.
Whether it’s going to be here or not, I don’t know. But I’ll be playing baseball. So my future is certain in that aspect.
"
While Philadelphia will look into dealing the 2006 NL MVP this winter, finding a dance partner figures to be difficult for multiple reasons. Not only does Howard still have substantial money left on his deal, but his production at the plate is down.
Despite hitting 23 home runs and driving in 95 runs, he ranked 22nd among qualified first basemen in OPS (.690), the lowest of his career and a number that ranked 119th among all qualified batters, between Seattle's Dustin Ackley (.692) and Texas' Leonys Martin (.689).
Additionally, he's a defensive liability, with advanced metrics placing him 17th among 18 qualified first basemen in both DRS (minus-10) and UZR/150 (minus-3.6).
In a perfect world, an American League team would be willing to take a chance on Howard as a full-time designated hitter. Whether that team exists, however, remains to be seen.
Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Remaining Contract: Five years, $107 million
2014 Stats: 150 G, .287/.346/.506, 66 XBH (25 HR), 89 RBI, 8-of-13 SB
While his return to health in 2014 found Matt Kemp producing at a fairly high level, he remains perhaps the least likely of Los Angeles' high-priced outfielders to move this winter. Teams are sure to have reservations about the money left on his deal, his recent injury history and his defense, all of which make a potential Kemp deal difficult enough to pull off.
But the degree of difficulty in working out a potential deal may not be the biggest hurdle for the Dodgers to get past. Were the Dodgers to trade Kemp, Yasiel Puig would potentially be the only dangerous right-handed bat left in the lineup, especially if Hanley Ramirez departs as a free agent.
None of that will stop the rumor mill from speculating about the former All-Star's future in Los Angeles this winter, mind you, and the Dodgers would be foolish to not at least listen when other teams call.
B.J. Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves
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Remaining Contract: Three years, $46.35 million
2014 Stats: 141 G, .208/.287/.333, 36 XBH (12 HR), 35 RBI, 20-of-27 SB
The Atlanta Braves are willing to pick up the bulk of the money left on B.J. Upton's contract or package him with another player in order to entice a team to agree to a deal. Not both, as David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution noted back in August, when the B.J. Upton-for-Edwin Jackson rumors were circulating.
That rumored deal could be revisited this winter, according to O'Brien, who says that all options are on the table when it comes to getting Upton out of Atlanta.
With a new general manager (John Hart) at the helm and the specter of increased revenue from a new ballpark on the horizon, it will be interesting to see just how desperate the Braves are to cut ties with the talented but perpetually underachieving outfielder.
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
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