Fact or Fiction on All of MLB's Hottest Free-Agency, Trade Rumors

As the 2014 World Series nears its dramatic conclusion, there are machinations at work behind the scenes across MLB.

In fact, it has been a busy week in both leagues.

Surgeries have been performed, exposing one organization to even more uncertainty this offseason. Other players who were once thought to be on their way out of town are suddenly being discussed as the long-term answer. And then there is the elephant in the room: Joe Maddon walked away from the Tampa Bay Rays.

Let’s take a look at those stories and more.

Here is the latest installment of fact or fiction regarding some of the recent rumors around MLB, starting with the best hitter set to hit free agency.

Is It a Foregone Conclusion That Victor Martinez Gets Four Years?

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Some time ago, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine posited that the contract Victor Martinez signed this offseason was going to be for around $45 million over three years.  

That number may not be accurate anymore. Per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, the Detroit “Tigers will extend the qualifying offer to the switch-hitting Martinez, according to people familiar with their plans, but he will decline and try to repeat the term he received four years ago.”

Truth be told, Martinez holds all the cards.

He is by far the most accomplished hitter on the open market. True, the 32 home runs he hit this past season will be hard to replicate, but he has always been able to get on base and is known for hitting in the clutch.

Verdict: Fact

Martinez will indeed sign for more than three years, but the caveat here is that it may not be with the Tigers. As Heyman noted, “the length of the deal could be a sticking point if he insists on four years.”

In other words, financial matters may preclude Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski from being able to tack on an additional year.

And make no mistake: There will be a fourth year, but not because it is a sage fiscal move. After all, Martinez will be 36 in December, and signing a player until he is almost 40 (for potentially $15 million per) is a risky move.

No, Martinez will get an additional year because that is what will separate one club’s contract offer from another.

Miguel Cabrera's Injury Forces the Detroit Tigers to Sign Victor Martinez

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Miguel Cabrera underwent surgery last week to clean up his ankle. That much was planned, as it had been troubling him for some time.

What was not planned, however, was that while performing the procedure, doctors also had to “repair a stress fracture in the navicular bone near the top of his right foot,” per MLB.com’s Chris Beck. The injury could jeopardize Cabrera’s status for the beginning of the 2015 season and impacts what direction general manager Dave Dombrowski takes this offseason.

What does this mean for Victor Martinez, though?

Fox Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi thinks it means that the Tigers have “to become more aggressive in their efforts to woo back Martinez, their team MVP this year (even more so than Cabrera).” After all, Morosi argues, the club can’t win without both Cabrera and Martinez.

That may be short-sighted.

See, as Morosi correctly notes, the Tigers are going to have to carefully watch Cabrera’s workload moving forward. And that likely means more time at designated hitter—which is the only position Martinez can play.

How, then, does it make sense to sign Martinez to a four-year deal only to have no spot to play him when Cabrera returns, assuming that the two-time MVP is limited in his ability to play first base?

So will Cabrera’s uncertain future force general manager Dave Dombrowski to sign Martinez at any cost?

Verdict: Fiction

If anything, Cabrera’s status nudges Dombrowski in the other direction—and he has options.

There are targets like Adam LaRoche, for example, set to hit the open market who hit left-handed and can play first base and DH. Perhaps signing LaRoche, who is a year younger than Martinez, to a four-year deal makes more sense.

Billy Butler is another choice should the Kansas City Royals opt not to pick up his $15 million option. And there is always the chance that Dombrowski will swing a trade for a first baseman.

Joe Maddon Will End Up with the Chicago Cubs

Brian Blanco/Getty Images

When Joe Maddon opted out of his contract with the Tampa Bay Rays last Friday, many immediately identified the Chicago Cubs as not only his likely destination, but the best situation for him.

ESPN Insider Buster Olney (subscription required), for example, wrote that “Maddon is not the manager of the Cubs yet, but in the same way that Hillary Clinton is not a 2016 presidential candidate yet,” before adding that if Maddon ends up on the North Side, “he will be one more elite piece to the growing monster that other teams see forming.”

David Haugh from the Chicago Tribune (subscription required) argued that Maddon should be Theo Epstein’s No. 1 priority. “Sure, the Cubs have a manager in Rick Renteria,” Haugh wrote, “but Renteria still is learning a job Maddon has mastered, and rare are the opportunities to hire somebody at the top of his profession who fits in the Cubs organization like ivy on an outfield wall.”    

Verdict: Fact

Like the pursuit of Jon Lester, there are too many things that make sense for this to not be true.

The Cubs respect what Renteria did in 2014, but Maddon is a soothsayer. He is the type of manager that can mold the young prospects and bring the veterans together, building a winning franchise in the process.

Expect the front office to do whatever it takes—including personnel input—to make Maddon the manager for the foreseeable future.

Are the San Francisco Giants Changing Course Regarding Pablo Sandoval?

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Nick Cafardo from The Boston Globe dropped a couple of incendiaries not too long ago.

For one, he noted that Pablo Sandoval “has told friends Boston would be a preferred destination” should he reach the open market. He also added that “according to a team source, the [San Francisco] Giants don’t feel comfortable offering more than three years,” but that “all signs point to the free agent eventually getting a five-year deal.”

You don’t need to be able to read tea leaves to surmise that Cafardo didn’t expect Sandoval to don a Giants uniform next season.

Things may have changed.

“Without an obvious internal replacement at third base,” Fox Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi wrote following Game 4 of the World Series, “it’s hard to imagine they’ll let Sandoval leave—even if he asks for a deal similar to the one [Hunter] Pence received.”

And for the record, the contract extension Pence signed toward the end of the 2013 season was for $90 million over five years. That is a far cry from shying away from more than a three-year commitment to Sandoval.

Verdict: Fact

Exceptional postseason performances have an expected consequence. Namely, they drive up value on the free-agent market and solidity to the player’s current club just how valuable he is.

With his performance during the regular season (.279/.324/.415, 16 HR, 73 RBI) and this postseason (.338/.386/.431, 5 RBI, 6 2B), Sandoval has once again demonstrated to the front office, the fanbase and his teammates just how valuable he is.

Any predisposition to taking a hard line at three years is now off the table. There is no way Sandoval is going anywhere. It doesn’t hurt that Sandoval truly enjoys where he is at, saying, “I love my team, and I love the fans,” per Morosi.

Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and historical statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.

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