Week 8 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

As the NFL approaches its halfway point, fans and bettors sit at a tricky intersection when attempting to make predictive evaluations.  

While we are starting to accumulate a robust enough sample size to make definitive long-term judgments, six to seven games is still narrow enough to allow luck to play a significant role in shrouding a team's real capabilities.

Thus, with plenty of teams favored by roughly a touchdown this week, there is enough room in the lines for savvy NFL observers to exploit some of these misconceptions.  The same logic applies to over/under lines, which can be distorted by similar small-sample-size bias issues.

Looking at each of the 14 remaining games on the slate, let's highlight the spread and over/under from each matchup via Odds Shark, while delving deeper into three of this week's best bets.

Date	Matchup	Spread	Pick Against Spread	Over/Under	O/U Pick
Sun., Oct. 26	Lions at Falcons (in London)	DET (-3.5)	Lions	46.5	Under
Sun., Oct. 26	Texans at Titans	HOU (-3)	Texans	42	Over
Sun., Oct. 26	Rams at Chiefs	KC (-8.5)	Rams	44.5	Under
Sun., Oct. 26	Vikings at Buccaneers	TB (-2.5)	Buccaneers	42.5	Under
Sun., Oct. 26	Seahawks at Panthers	SEA (-3)	Seahawks	44.5	Over
Sun., Oct. 26	Ravens at Bengals	Even	Ravens	46	Under
Sun., Oct. 26	Dolphins at Jaguars	MIA (-7)	Dolphins	42.5	Over
Sun., Oct. 26	Bears at Patriots	NE (-7)	Bears	50.5	Over
Sun., Oct. 26	Bills at Jets	NY (-3)	Bills	40.5	Under
Sun., Oct. 26	Eagles at Cardinals	ARI (-2.5)	Cardinals	48	Under
Sun., Oct. 26	Raiders at Browns	CLE (-7.5)	Raiders	43	Over
Sun., Oct. 26	Colts at Steelers	IND (-3)	Colts	49	Over
Sun., Oct. 26	Packers at Saints	NO (-1)	Saints	55.5	Over
Mon., Oct. 27	Redskins at Cowboys	DAL (-10)	Cowboys	49	Under

Seahawks vs. Panthers: Over 44.5

Seattle and Carolina were two of the top defenses in the league last season, but significant offseason personnel turnover has thinned the depth on both units.  Consequently, the Seahawks and Panthers now rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of yards allowed per play over the past three weeks.

More importantly, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton have both taken significant steps forward while bearing greater burdens, and both dual-threat quarterbacks figure to stress the opposing front seven's discipline.  Seattle's linebackers in particular have demonstrated some puzzling deficiencies in their pass-run keys, often conceding big plays over the middle due to misdiagnosed assignments.

Meanwhile, it is not difficult to imagine the Seahawks offense carving up a Carolina defense whose 2013 strength stemmed primarily from an elite front seven.  

With Greg Hardy banished and Charles Johnson underachieving, the Panthers defensive line ranks a mediocre 18th in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate.  Given Carolina's recurring woes in the secondary, that decline has made for an untenable combination:

At this point, it would not be unreasonable to assert that the offenses are the two best units in this game.

Carolina figures to exploit the Seahawks linebackers with a steady stream of multi-tight end sets and Greg Olsen seam routes, while Wilson and Marshawn Lynch should create issues for the Panthers' suddenly vulnerable front seven.  Consequently, it would hardly be surprising to see a combined score reach the 50s.

Lions vs. Falcons: Under 46.5

Though Detroit and Atlanta have been two of the most explosive offenses in recent seasons, fireworks might be in short supply at Wembley Stadium.  

The Lions' defensive transformation is well-documented, and although Drew Brees was able to carve up their secondary for three quarters last week, Detroit illustrated its legitimacy in clamping down during the fourth quarter, forcing a career-high 10 straight incompletions from Brees.

Indeed, with Detroit still a clear-cut first in FO's DVOA defensive rankings, it seems unlikely that the Falcons offense will even break 20 away from the Georgia Dome.  

Atlanta ranks 17th in total points scored on the road over the past two seasons, with a 19.6 points-per-game average that would rank 27th in the league this season.  Matt Ryan and the passing game are slumping, which could make for an ugly combination against the Lions' stellar defense:

Meanwhile, the Lions seem unlikely to push the line toward the over on their own.  

New offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has installed a lower-risk passing game intended to minimize Matthew Stafford's mistakes by calling for more quick three-step drop concepts.  Stafford is on pace for a career low in turnovers, but the Lions have also failed to score over 24 points since Week 1.

Thus, barring an uncharacteristic string of big plays, neither the Falcons nor Lions figure to experience consistent success on a per-play basis.  Coupled with the novelty of playing in an unfamiliar environment, betting the under seems like the wise play here.

Bills (+3) over Jets

The home team automatically receives three points in any line, but even accounting for that, it is puzzling that bettors see Buffalo and New York as roughly equal teams.  

The free-falling Jets have been victimized by the league's second-toughest schedule thus far, according to FO, but Gang Green is still a team with extreme deficiencies outside of an otherworldly defensive line. 

Most importantly, it is difficult to conceive how the Jets offense is going to move the ball consistently against one of the stoutest defenses in the league.  Buffalo belongs in the discussion for best defensive front seven, as it has allowed a league-best 3.2 yards per attempt while leading the league in sack percentage.  

Chris Ivory appears unlikely to gain much traction against the interior defensive tackle tandem of Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, which would place the onus on Geno Smith.  The Jets put up 25 points on New England last week by controlling the ball and setting up advantageous passing situations for Smith, but when stretched beyond those narrow confines, Smith has failed to generate many big plays this season:

Even with new toy Percy Harvin in tow, the Jets lack enough offensive weapons to challenge Buffalo's defense, which is strong through all three layers.  

So long as Kyle Orton and the offense do not experience a rash of turnovers, Buffalo should stymie the Jets long enough to cover this spread, even on the road.