Grading the Performance of Top MLB Prospects at the Arizona Fall League

If you love prospects, then it doesn’t get any better than the Arizona Fall League.

With six teams comprised of players from all 30 organizations, the prestigious AFL offers top prospects an opportunity to refine their skills long after the end of the minor league season.

For some players, the competition in the AFL is superior to anything they’ve previously experienced as a professional. For others, it’s a chance to prove to their organization that they’re ready to be challenged at the highest level.

But playing in the AFL after a full minor league season is easier said than done, which is why every year there’s a contingent of big-name prospects who put up disappointing numbers.

With the AFL season gaining steam, it’s time to look at the early returns from the leagues’ top 10 prospects—as determined by Prospect Pipeline’s end-of-season rankings—with each player receiving a letter grade based on his performance.

With that being said, here’s a look at how baseball’s top prospects have fared thus far in the Arizona Fall League.

Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

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2014 AFL Stats: .209/.277/.233, 2B, 4 RBI, 2 SB, 4 BB, 9 K (10 G)

Byron Buxton is still viewed as the sport’s top prospect despite missing the first half of the season with a wrist injury at High-A Fort Myers and then most of the second half after suffering a concussion in a terrifying outfield collision in his first Double-A game. There’s simply no other player who can match the 20-year-old center fielder’s combination of elite athleticism, legitimate five-tool potential and advanced secondary skills.

Buxton originally was supposed to begin the year at Double-A New Britain, which would have put him on schedule to debut with the Twins in August or September. However, given the amount of developmental time missed this season, Buxton is now trying to make up for the lost time in the AFL.

Unfortunately, Buxton’s second AFL campaign has begun slowly, as he’s batting .209 through 10 games. He actually went 7-for-21 with five runs scored in Surprise’s first five games, but Buxton is just 2-for-18 without an extra-base hit since then.

Though his performance has been up and down in the early going, a strong finish in the AFL could help Buxton get his promising career back on track headed into the 2015 season.

Grade: C

Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

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2014 AFL Stats: .292/.333/.417, 3 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 SB, 3 BB, 6 K (11 G)

Francisco Lindor returned to Double-A Akron to begin the season and held his own as one of the Eastern League’s youngest players, batting .278/.352/.389 with 22 extra-base hits and 25 steals in 88 games.

The Indians moved him up to Triple-A Columbus in July, suggesting that the 20-year-old defensive wizard might get his first taste of the major leagues in September. However, even after dealing Asdrubal Cabrera at the trade deadline, the organization decided not to call up Lindor for the season’s final month.

Lindor likely would have been fine without a trip to Arizona, but the Indians clearly wanted him to tack on an additional month’s worth of games after he played 126 during the regular season. Suffice it to say the 20-year-old switch-hitter has made the most of the opportunity so far, with 14 hits (four extra-base hits), six runs scored and two stolen bases in 11 games.

Grade: B+

Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs

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2014 AFL Stats: .190/.261/.286, 2B, HR, 8 RBI, 3 BB, 12 K (10 G)

Addison Russell, 20, missed most of the first half with a hamstring injury prior to being dealt to the Cubs in early July. However, the shortstop seemingly benefited from the change of scenery, batting .294/.332/.536 with 12 home runs, 11 doubles and 36 RBI in 50 games at Double-A Tennessee. The only thing Russell didn’t do this season was steal bases, though that should have been expected after he missed most of the first half with a hamstring injury.

Russell impressed in the 2013 AFL by hitting .282/.361/.435 in 97 plate appearances, but this year he’ll be attempting to make up for the lost time after playing only 68 games played during the regular season.

Russell is off to a slow start this time around—evidenced by his .190 batting average through 10 games—but his three hits (including a three-run home run) and five RBI in the last two games suggest the right-handed hitter is finally settling in at the plate.

Grade: C+

Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

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2014 AFL Stats: .244/.320/.400, 5 2B, 3B, 6 RBI, 5 BB, 13 K (11 G)

Corey Seager posted gaudy numbers this season at High-A Rancho Cucamonga, as the 20-year-old mastered the California League with a robust .352/.411/.633 batting line, 34 doubles, 18 home runs and 70 RBI in 80 games.

The hitter-friendly parks of the Cal tend to inflate hitters’ numbers, so it was encouraging to see Seager maintain his torrid production after moving up to Double-A Chattanooga. In his first taste of the Southern League, the 6’4”, 215-pound shortstop batted .345/.381/.534 with two home runs, 16 doubles and 27 RBI in 37 contests.

Overall, Seager amassed 75 extra-base hits and led all minor leaguers with 50 doubles. On top of that, he actually fared equally well against same-side pitchers as he did righties this season, posting a 1.065 OPS and 24 extra-base hits in 126 plate appearances against southpaws compared to a .984 OPS with 51 extra-base hits in 400 plate appearances.

After batting .181/.253/.306 last fall in 79 plate appearances, Seager began his second tour in the AFL with three extra-base hits in his first eight at-bats, but he’s batting just .184 with 11 strikeouts over his last nine games. That being said, Seager has looked better as of late with back-to-back two-hit games, and he’s already 6-for-12 with three doubles and one triple against left-handed pitching.

Grade: B

Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

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2014 AFL Stats: 3 GS, 7.0 IP, 10.29 ERA, 2.57 WHIP, .343 BAA, 6 BB, 6 K

Archie Bradley spent a majority of the season on the disabled list due to a mild flexor strain in his right elbow, but the 22-year-old was given a clean bill of health in late June and returned to Double-A Mobile, where he pitched to a 4.12 ERA with 46 strikeouts and 36 walks over 54.2 innings.

Bradley logged only 83 innings this season due to his time spent on the disabled list, so his September call-up snub wasn’t related to any concerns about his workload. Rather, Bradley’s performance this season made it clear his command, particularly his fastball command, requires further refinement. An inability to pitch off a located fastball made it difficult for Bradley to consistently execute his curveball against upper-level hitters and impeded the development of his changeup.

The right-hander’s strike-throwing issues have carried over into the AFL, as he’s struggled to pound the zone in all three starts and failed to work deep into games. Salt River’s defense hasn’t exactly helped Bradley so far, as errors have already resulted in five unearned runs with the right-hander on the mound. However, there’s still no good excuse for Bradley’s 12 hits allowed and 6-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only seven innings.

Grade: C-

Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

2014 AFL Stats: 3 GS, 6.2 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, .273 BAA, 5 BB, 7 K

Tyler Glasnow was one of the top pitchers in the minor leagues this season, as he paced the Florida State league in ERA (1.74), WHIP (1.05) and opponents’ batting average (.174) while ranking second in strikeouts (157) and strikeouts per nine innings (11.4 K/9).

The 21-year-old was especially dominant during the second half of the season, with a 9-2 record, 1.65 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 109 strikeouts over 81.2 innings (14 starts). Meanwhile, he issued just 29 walks—one more than he allowed in 42.2 innings during the first half—while holding opposing hitters to a .177 average.

Glasnow is a bad, bad man when he’s around the zone with his fastball, as the 6’7” right-hander’s huge extension toward the plate, plus velocity and consistent downhill plane make the pitch incredibly difficult to drive. It also allows him to pitch more aggressively with his slider, which is a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch when he’s able to work off the heater.

Glasnow experienced control issues in his AFL debut (0.2 IP, ER, 3 BB) but has since turned in back-to-back scoreless starts, combining for six scoreless innings during which he issued just two walks. In general, the level of competition in the AFL should be a good test for Glasnow, especially with him likely to begin 2015 in Double-A.

Grade: B

D.J. Peterson, 3B/1B, Seattle Mariners

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2014 AFL Stats: .229/.372/.400, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 8 BB, 5 K (10 G)

D.J. Peterson made quick work of the California League this season, as the 2013 first-rounder posted a .997 OPS with 18 home runs and 73 RBI in 65 games at High-A High Desert. The 22-year-old did cool off a bit following a midseason promotion to Double-A Jackson, but he still batted a very respectable .261/.335/.473 with 13 home runs, eight doubles and 38 RBI during his time in the Southern League.

Peterson is batting only .229 to begin the AFL despite hitting safely in seven of 10 contests, but half of his hits have gone for extra bases while his patient approach has produced more walks (eight) than strikeouts (five).

Though he may not remain at third base long term, Peterson’s bat is good enough to support a move to first base. And after hitting 31 home runs and 31 doubles in his first full professional season, it’s safe to say the 22-year-old has everyone’s attention entering 2015—including the Mariners, an organization that doesn’t shy away from challenging its top prospects in the major leagues.

Grade: B

Josh Bell, OF/1B, Pittsburgh Pirates

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2014 AFL Stats: .256/.333/.372, 5 2B, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 5 K (11 G)

Josh Bell, 22, made significant strides offensively this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, as the switch-hitter batting .335/.384/.502 with 33 extra-base hits (nine home runs) and an improved 43-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 84 games. Bell’s red-hot bat then carried over to the Eastern League for the final month of the season in the form of a respectable .287/.343/.309 batting in final 24 games.

Bell has hit safely in eight of 11 games to open the AFL and had a seven-game hitting streak snapped Wednesday, so don’t read too far into his .256 average thus far.

It’s also worth noting that Bell, a corner outfielder for his entire professional career, is playing first base in the AFL. The Pirates will have one of baseball’s best outfields for years to come, so it’s possible the organization is beginning to explore other ways to get his promising bat in the lineup.

Grade: B

Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox

2014 AFL Stats: .308/.325/.436, 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB, 0 BB, 13 K (10 G)

Tim Anderson held his own this season despite an aggressive Opening Day assignment to High-A Winston Salem, as the 2013 first-rounder batted .297/.323/.472 with 31 extra-base hits and 10 stolen bases over 68 games.

Anderson missed roughly seven weeks after fracturing his wrist and, after six rehab games in the Rookie-level Arizona League, was promoted to Double-A Birmingham. Anderson’s introduction to the Southern League was a smashing success, highlighted by a .364 batting average with four extra-base hits over the final 10 games of the season.

The 21-year-old shortstop got off to a rough start in the AFL, going 1-for-9 with six strikeouts in his first four games, but he’s since put together a six-game hitting streak during which he’s hitting .333 with three extra-base hits, six RBI and four stolen bases.

In general, Anderson has made more consistent contact than expected as a professional and flashed good raw power, but his raw approach and pitch recognition will require considerable refinement moving forward.

Grade: B+

Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds

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2014 AFL Stats: .353/.465/.588, 2 2B, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 8 BB, 8 K (9 G)

Jesse Winker, 21, showcased his mature approach and strong bat-to-ball skills this season by batting .317/.426/.580 with 28 extra-base hits and a 46-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53 games at High-A Bakersfield. His production fell off after moving up to Double-A Pensacola (.677 OPS in 21 games), though it likely had something to do with the partially torn tendon in his right wrist that ultimately ended his season in late July (but didn’t require surgery).

Fully healthy for the AFL, the sweet-swinging Winker has quickly proved the wrist issue is behind him by hitting a robust .353/.465/.588 with four extra-base hits and 13 RBI over his first nine games. He also has four multihit performances already and has driven in a run in six different games.

Grade: A