NFL Draft 2015: Updated Prospect Radar, Post Week 7
The first half of this year’s college football season was a disappointing one for the top quarterbacks eligible for the 2015 NFL draft. Arguably all of the signal-callers jockeying to be high first-round picks had their draft stocks dented with lackluster performances early this season.
That began to change on Saturday night, when Florida State’s Jameis Winston, Notre Dame’s Everett Golson and Oregon’s Marcus Mariota all made their cases to be top quarterback prospects with impressive performances in prime-time games.
While Winston’s Seminoles outdueled Golson’s Fighting Irish in a thrilling top-five matchup that lived up to all the hype, the play of both quarterbacks stood out. Mariota’s performance didn’t get as much attention, as his Ducks blew out Washington in a game being played simultaneously with and overshadowed by the Florida State-Notre Dame contest, but he also had his best performance of the year to date.
More details on those three quarterbacks’ games follow in a stock report that looks back at a week that included no shortage of notable performances from top draft prospects.
Stock Up: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State, RS So.
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This Week: 23-of-31 passing, 273 yards, two touchdowns, one interception; four rushing attempts for eight yards
Opponent: Notre Dame
Off-field transgressions by Jameis Winston have brought into serious question whether an NFL team will be willing to take a chance on the Heisman Trophy winner as a high draft pick, but he showed on Saturday night against Notre Dame that he’s still college football’s most talented quarterback on the field.
Throwing a bad interception while under pressure punctuated an unspectacular first half after which Florida State trailed by seven points. In the second half, however, Doak Campbell Stadium became Winston’s personal playground, as he completed all but one of his passing attempts (15-of-16) for 181 yards and a touchdown.
Winston didn’t accumulate those numbers by hitting wide open receivers and dink-and-dunk passes. The quarterback consistently fired throws into tight coverage in the middle of the field. His ball placement on many of his throws was imperfect, but the velocity he demonstrated in driving his passes to his targets stood out.
Another benefit Winston didn’t have Saturday night was that of a clean pocket. Notre Dame was able to bring pressure against Florida State’s offensive line throughout the game, but Winston displayed his ability to maneuver around the pocket, reset his feet and throw accuracy against the rush.
Having pocket presence under pressure and being able to complete passes through tight windows are among the most important skills a quarterback needs to excel in the NFL, and Winston stands above his peers in those areas.
That might not be enough for many teams to overlook Winston’s character and maturity concerns, but performances like Saturday could entice a team to still draft him high. ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported Saturday night that his play this weekend was “prompting quite a few strong reviews from NFL personnel men and a few coaches watching FSU vs. Notre Dame.”
Winston and his father both claimed this summer that the quarterback planned to return to school for his redshirt junior season in 2015, but that jig appears to be up. CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora reported Sunday that “it is virtually certain Winston is declaring [for the draft] no matter what happens in the second half of the season.”
There’s little doubt that Winston will be the most polarizing and heavily discussed prospect in the months leading up to the 2015 draft. That makes him stock susceptible to significant changes, but he might be too talented for someone not to take a chance on him in Round 1.
Current Draft Projection: Round 1
Stock Up: Everett Golson, QB, Notre Dame, Jr.
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This Week: 31-of-52 passing, 313 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions; 11 rushing attempts for 33 yards
Opponent: Florida State
Jameis Winston wasn’t the only quarterback making spectacular plays in Tallahassee on Saturday night. Notre Dame came very close to upsetting Florida State—they likely would have if not for an offensive pass interference penalty that nullified a late touchdown—and the big reason why was the playmaking ability of Everett Golson.
As has been the case all season, Golson continued to be mistake-prone on Saturday night—he threw two interceptions and had a botched snap exchange on a turnover on downs—but he also continued to display tools that make him an intriguing potential addition to the 2015 draft’s quarterback class, should he declare.
Golson continued to struggle with touch on his deep passes Saturday night, but he put his arm strength on full display. He made a number of noteworthy throws through tight windows by rifling the ball to his receivers accurately and with high velocity.
Another impressive aspect of Golson’s game is his ability to improvise under pressure and make plays on the run. His highlight of Saturday’s game came on Notre Dame’s final drive, facing a 4th-and-18, when he rolled to the right side of the field, eluded multiple pass-rushers and then, in the process of taking a big hit, lasered a throw to the sticks to wide receiver Corey Robinson for a conversion that kept the Irish fighting.
Golson still has a long way to go in his development in regards to his accuracy and decision-making, and his propensity for making mistakes actually landed him on a Stock Down slide last week. Height is also a concern for Golson, listed at 6’0” and 200 pounds by Notre Dame’s official athletics website, and it showed Saturday as he had a number of passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage.
Nonetheless, his overall body of work for this season has shown huge upside and vast improvement from 2012, the last season in which he played. By putting that potential on display against a Florida State defense loaded with NFL talent, he validated himself as one of the most promising quarterback prospects in college football, and as a potential early-round draft pick.
Current Draft Projection: Round 2-3
Stock Up: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon, Jr.
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This Week: 24-of-33 passing, 336 yards, two touchdowns; seven rushing attempts for -1 yard
Opponent: Washington
Not to be outdone by his counterparts, Marcus Mariota kept himself in the Heisman Trophy and top draft-eligible quarterback discussions Saturday with an excellent performance in Oregon’s 45-20 rout of Washington.
Mariota has made big plays with both his arm and his running ability throughout his Oregon career, but he has often had issues passing from the pocket under pressure, while his numbers have consistently been inflated by wide open throws and a system that uses mostly short passing.
On Saturday, Mariota made a number of impressive intermediate and deep throws that showed his velocity, ball placement and ability to beat coverages. All the while, Mariota looked composed in the pocket throughout the game, a game in which he did not frequently look to run the ball himself.
Mariota’s dual-threat skill set is what makes him a special prospect, but he has to be able to withstand pressure in the pocket without wilting in order to be a consistently successful NFL signal-caller. The progress he showed in that capacity Saturday, connecting on some challenging downfield strikes, was encouraging.
That same progress will have to be exhibited in future games for Mariota to prove he is making real strides as a pocket passer and didn’t simply take advantage of a defense that is underperforming in spite of its high-caliber talents. But on a night when quarterbacks stole the show, Mariota certainly didn’t lose any ground.
Current Draft Projection: Round 1
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Stock Down: Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor, Sr.
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This Week: 16-of-36 passing, 223 yards, two touchdowns; net loss of nine rushing yards
Opponent: West Virginia
While some of the other top draft-eligible quarterbacks in college football made their NFL potential clear on Saturday, Bryce Petty’s flaws were on full display, as Baylor suffered its first loss of the season, 41-27, to West Virginia.
The biggest problem for Petty in Saturday’s game was his inaccuracy on deeper throws. He attempted no shortage of long throws downfield, but he didn’t connected on many of them. As a result, he had more incompletions than completions in the defeat.
Petty didn’t show much ability to go through his progressions as a passer against West Virginia, instead locking onto initial targets and consistently misfiring on vertical throws toward covered receivers.
The typically high-scoring Baylor offense never got into its usual rhythm against the Mountaineers. Petty was sacked four times, and a couple of those sacks can be blamed on him for holding onto the ball too long.
Petty had a couple of very nice throws—a deep ball in stride along the right sideline which Antwan Goodley caught and scored or a 63-yard touchdown and a 43-yard bullet down the left side to Corey Coleman—but those were overshadowed by his many poor passing attempts Saturday, including a 4th-and-7 miss of a wide-open Goodley on what would have been a 26-yard touchdown.
There are some who believe Petty is in the mix to be one of the top quarterbacks in the 2015 draft, but it didn’t look like it against the Mountaineers.
Current Draft Projection: Round 4
Stock Up: Sheldon Day, DE/DT, Notre Dame, Jr.
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This Week: Two tackles, one tackle for loss, multiple quarterback pressures
Opponent: Florida State
The quarterbacks weren’t the only standouts in Saturday night’s Florida State-Notre Dame game. Another was Fighting Irish junior defensive lineman Sheldon Day, who showed his ability to disrupt plays from both outside and inside.
The Notre Dame defensive line mostly had its way with the Seminoles in the trenches, and Day was the main catalyst. Lining up sometimes as a right defensive end opposite Florida State left tackle Cameron Erving and other times inside as a defensive tackle, Day put his versatility and explosive athleticism on display.
The highlight of Day’s game in the fourth quarter, when he erupted through the Florida State's interior offensive line to flatten Seminoles running back Dalvin Cook for a five-yard loss.
Day didn’t make much statistical impact outside of that play, but he brought pressure on a number of other occasions, including a sack credited to his teammate Romeo Okwara. He showed an impressive ability against Erving to burst off the line and dip around the corner as a pass-rusher, while he showed that he could be violent with his hands and win with quickness rushing from the inside.
Listed at 6’2” and 285 pounds, Day has the tools to project as either a defensive end or 3-technique defensive tackle in a 4-3 defensive front in the NFL, but would ideally fit as a 5-technique DE in a 3-4 scheme.
He might not yet be a household name, but the difference he makes on the Notre Dame defensive front allows players around him to make big plays. His skill set and physical attributes project him well at the NFL, and he could be an early-round pick if he goes pro after his junior year.
Current Draft Projection: Round 2
Stock Down: Cameron Erving, LT, Florida State, Sr.
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This Week: Gave up multiple quarterback pressures, flagged for two false starts
Opponent: Notre Dame
Already knocked earlier this season after getting embarrassed by Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley, Cameron Erving’s disappointing senior season continued with a poor performance against Notre Dame.
The entire Florida State offensive line struggled in pass protection on Saturday, but especially the left side, where Erving proved to be a weak link. He got beaten by Sheldon Day for multiple pressures and also whiffed on multiple run-blocking opportunities.
Also set back by two false starts, Erving received the worst grade of any FSU offensive lineman in Pro Football Focus’ evaluation for its feature, “College Game of the Week.”
While the 6’6”, 308-pound Erving is a physical specimen who has intriguing athletic potential, he has continued to struggle in pass protection this year, particularly against speed-rushers on the outside.
Erving’s issues are technical more than physical, but his play on the field simply hasn’t lived up to his preseason hype. He hasn’t looked like a potential first-round pick or a starting-caliber NFL offensive tackle and must play better down the stretch to be an early-round draft choice.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 2-3
Stock Up: Shaquille Riddick, DE, West Virginia, Sr.
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This Week: Four solo tackles, all for loss (three sacks); one assisted tackle
Opponent: Baylor
West Virginia has had the top breakout prospect in college football this year in wide receiver Kevin White, but the breakout player of the Mountaineers win over Baylor was another previously under-the-radar senior, defensive end Shaquille Riddick.
A 2013 Football Championship Subdivision All-American at Gardner-Webb, Riddick had just one sack in his first six games at WVU, but he took advantage of a big opportunity to shine against Baylor by recording three sacks.
Riddick’s quickness, length and hand skills stood out as the 6’6”, 242-pound edge-defender caught Bryce Petty three times, each time showing a burst and a combination pass-rushing moves to blow by a Baylor blocker.
He also shut down a Shock Linwood run for a 2-yard loss to give him four stops behind the line of scrimmage for the day. The lone noteworthy blemish of Riddick’s game was a 15-yard personal foul penalty he picked up.
Riddick would have to bulk up to play defensive end in the NFL, and he might not have the strength to be a regular run-stopper up front, but his potential as a pass-rusher was clear on Saturday.
For his efforts, Riddick was named as the National Defensive Player of the Week by the Walter Camp Football Foundation.
Current Draft Projection: Round 5
Stock Up: Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma, Jr.
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This Week: 15 receptions for 197 yards, including a 47-yard touchdown; one rush for seven yards
Opponent: Kansas State
In spite of being briefly knocked out of the game late in the first half after landing hard on a camera lens out of bounds while trying to catch a pass, Sterling Shepard was still able to tie the Oklahoma school record with 15 receptions against Kansas State.
As has been the case all season, Shepard showed that he can be a weapon both as a deep target and as an open-field runner after catching passes on short and intermediate routes.
Shepard had three 20-plus-yard receptions Saturday, including a 47-yard touchdown on a play where he burned the Kansas State secondary deep and a nice leaping downfield grab over a defensive back for a 29-yard gain.
Shepard also demonstrated smooth route-running and impressive acceleration to get open on intermediate patterns. All but two of the 17 targets Shepard had Saturday were completed.
Following Saturday’s effort, he ranks third in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 911 receiving yards through seven games.
Shepard is a small receiver at just 5’10” and 195 pounds, but his combination of route-running ability, speed, toughness and agility suit him well to be an NFL slot receiver.
The junior is positioning himself to be a potential Day 2 draft pick if he declares for the 2015 draft.
Current Draft Projection: Round 3
Stock Down: Kyshoen Jarrett, SS, Virginia Tech, Sr.
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This Week: Seven total tackles, one tackle for loss; one punt return for minus-four yards; missed plays on all three Pittsburgh touchdowns
Opponent: Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh scored a trio of touchdowns in its victory over Virginia Tech, and Hokies senior safety Kyshoen Jarrett missed plays he should have made on all three scores.
Jarrett’s most egregious mistake came in the first quarter to allow a 53-yard touchdown to Tyler Boyd. After Boyd beat Hokies cornerback Kendall Fuller on a deep route to make a catch, Jarrett came in from centerfield with a chance to make a play, but took a horrible angle and essentially jumped out of Boyd’s way to allow him to score.
Later in the game, Jarrett missed tackles on both of James Conner’s touchdown runs, from 15 and 13 yards out.
Jarrett was otherwise an active presence for the Hokies on Thursday, especially against the run, but mistakes that give the opponent points are never acceptable.
While Jarrett was praised for his range after his impressive, two-interception performance in Virginia Tech’s surprise victory over Ohio State earlier this year, the tape from Thursday’s game will not look good on his resume.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 6-7
Hidden Gem of the Week: T.J. Clemmings, RT, Pittsburgh, Sr.
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This Week: Dominant effort on right side of offensive line in 21-16 win
Opponent: Virginia Tech
There was no shortage of praise on the Twitterverse for T.J. Clemmings during Pittsburgh’s win against Virginia Tech on Thursday.
Upon watching his play closely from that game, it was easy to see why.
A converted defensive tackle, the 6’6”, 315-pound Clemmings possesses a highly intriguing combination of size and athleticism. He exhibits an explosive burst off the line of scrimmage and the power to drive block defenders off the ball.
Clemmings made a number of devastating run blocks against the Hokies while he was never driven backward by a defender. Though he lost leverage at times in pass protection by leaning too far forward, he nonetheless had a strong showing in that area too.
From a technique standpoint, his acclimation to playing offensive line is still a work in progress, but he shows clear upside to be an NFL right tackle with his physical tools and powerful punch.
ESPN’s Todd McShay said Thursday that Clemmings is the “most improved player in 1-yr I’ve ever seen,” while National Football Post’s Greg Gabriel, a former NFL director of college scouting, said scouts have told him Clemmings “has become a hell of a prospect.”
Very much under the radar even heading into game against Virginia Tech, Clemmings could be shooting up draft boards and is emerging as a potential early-round pick based on his high potential.
Current Draft Projection: Round 2-3
Small School Stud of the Week: Chris King, WR, Duquesne, Jr.
11 of 13This Week: Four receptions for 113 yards, two touchdowns; one kickoff return for 12 yards
Opponent: Sacred Heart
Big performances like Chris King had Saturday against Sacred Heart have been par for the course this season for the Duquesne junior wide receiver, who has emerged as one of the best players in the Football Championship Subdivision.
Highlighted by an impressive 58-yard touchdown catch on which he had to make a spinning adjustment on a deep throw, King posted his sixth triple-digit receiving day out of the seven games he has played this season.
King has 50 receptions on the season, but in his last four games alone, he has caught 30 passes for 526 yards and eight touchdowns. For the year, he leads all FCS receivers with 915 receiving yards and is tied for the FCS lead with 11 receiving touchdowns.
It would be a surprise if King declared for the draft after his junior year, but his numbers should certainly put hom on the radar of NFL scouts. An athletic wideout, the 6’1”, 196-pound King has the physical tools and skill set that should translate to the next level.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 6-7
Other Notable Performers
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On Saturday, the aforementioned West Virginia senior wide receiver, Kevin White, and Alabama junior wide receiver Amari Cooper continued to stand out as the top two 2015 draft prospects at their position.
Highlighted by a one-handed TD grab that gave West Virginia a fourth-quarter lead it would never relinquish, White caught eight passes for 132 yards and two touchdowns and became the first receiver in the Football Bowl Subdivision this year to top 1,000 receiving yards. Not to be outdone, Cooper caught eight passes for 140 yards and two touchdowns in Alabama’s blowout win over Texas A&M.
White has emerged as a star prospect this year, but Cooper has done nothing but strengthen his position as a top talent that he had coming into the year. The debate as to which one of them is the 2015 draft’s top receiving prospect will be a good one.
Another standout for Alabama on Saturday was junior running back T.J. Yeldon. Highlighted by a 31-yard run on which he used exceptional double moves to make successive defenders miss, Yeldon put his agility and vision on display throughout the Crimson Tide’s 59-0 win and finished the day with 114 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries, along with three receptions for 45 yards.
The breakout season for Indiana junior running back Tevin Coleman continued Saturday, as he ran for 132 yards on 15 carries against Michigan State, making him the first back this season to run for triple digits against the usually stout Spartans defense. This performance was a validation of what Coleman, the nation’s leading rusher with 1,192 yards, has done against other defenses.
By comparison, Nebraska senior running back Ameer Abdullah, another top talent at the position, ran for just 45 yards on 24 carries against Michigan State earlier this month. Coleman has been phenomenal this year—he has at least 122 rushing yards and a run of 43 yards or longer in every game, while Saturday’s game was the first in which he did not score a touchdown—and it’s becoming clear that he is legitimately one of the best running back prospects in the nation.
Another standout offensive performance this week came from TCU junior wide receiver Josh Doctson, who torched the Oklahoma State secondary for 225 yards, including touchdown receptions of 84 and 77 yards, on seven total receptions. Doctson has put some big-play ability on display this year and could emerge as a significant prospect if he can build off his most recent performance.
In a tight end draft class that projects to be weak, Oregon junior Pharoah Brown could shake things up significantly if he declares. Brown put his skills on display against Washington, as he caught three passes for 99 yards, highlighted by a 66-yard play on which he caught a deep ball then stiff-armed his way through multiple defenders. A great athlete at 6’6” and 250 pounds, Brown needs to play with more consistency, but he has a big upside.
In a losing effort, Baylor senior linebacker Bryce Hager had a standout performance against West Virginia. An explosive downhill run defender, Hager put his instincts and closing speed on display, as he made 13 total tackles, including a number of stops right around the line of scrimmage. Hager is not a great pass defender, but his ability as a run-stopper makes him an intriguing middle-round draft possibility.
An impressive junior season continued for USC quarterback Cody Kessler against Colorado, as he completed 19 of 26 passing attempts for 319 yards and a school-record seven touchdowns. While Kessler still is not expected to be an early entrant into the NFL draft after his junior year, he’s played well enough this year to emerge as a likely middle-round pick if he declares.
NFL Draft Injury Notes
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Significant injuries for top draft prospects were largely avoided during this past week of college football games.
Oklahoma redshirt sophomore quarterback Trevor Knight briefly left Saturday's game against Kansas State with a shoulder injury but returned to action. Sooners coach Bob Stoops declined to provide information on Knight's injury Monday, but it would be a surprise if the Oklahoma signal-caller, who has long-term NFL potential but would be best served by returning to school for at least one more year, misses any time considering his return to Saturday's contest.
Among the players to return from injury this week was Louisville senior wide receiver DeVante Parker, a gifted playmaker who is arguably the third-best pass-catching prospect for the 2015 draft behind Amari Cooper and Kevin White. Parker had a strong return to action, as he caught nine passes for 132 yards in Louisville's win over North Carolina State.
Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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