2014 ATP World Tour Finals: Breaking Down the Race to London as It Heats Up
The ATP Race to London has watched the best 11 players in men’s tennis battle for eight slots to qualify for November’s year-end World Tour Finals. And while the final picture of contestants is becoming clearer, there is plenty of madness in three upcoming tournaments (Basel, Valencia, Paris) before everything is settled.
What we do know is that five players (Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Stanislas Wawrinka, Marin Cilic) have already qualified. The first four have amassed at least 4,800 points, ahead of the 4,545 projected to make this year’s cut.
Marin Cilic, currently at 4,150 points, has nevertheless qualified by virtue of his U.S. Open title, because he is certain to be the highest Grand Slam winner to finish between No. 8-20. The 26-year-old, bearded Croatian just grabbed the Moscow title, and his decision to pull out of Valencia is irrelevant for the Race to London.
Who else is ready to join the party, and what other X-factors could alter the line-up card for London?
Kei Nishikori
1 of 7
Kei Nishikori is a refreshing sunrise in the ATP tour, flashing his vast array of colorful groundstrokes and angles. His intensity has toughened, and he has brightened the tour with all-courts speed, defense and versatility.
Nishikori, No. 5 in the Race to London, has all but grabbed his reservation for November. He would be in for sure with another 280 points, but may not need another point unless the perfect storm occurs for multiple players just below the cut line.
The Japanese superstar is deserving of this accomplishment after a torrid few weeks in September-October that saw him finish as the U.S. Open runner-up and grab titles in Malaysia and Japan. He also won Memphis and Barcelona last Spring and was runner-up at Madrid. Only Djokovic, Federer and Nadal can boast as many as four titles in 2014.
He is one of the most interesting players to watch on tour, reminiscent at times of the attacking intelligence of former American legend Andre Agassi. Of course, he must build on bigger results if he is to one day win a major or two. He would love to even get on board with a Masters 1000 trophy.
Tomas Berdych
2 of 7
King of the also-rans, Tomas Berdych is nevertheless reliable and consistent enough to go deep in majors and compete for mid-level tournaments. Fresh off his second title in 2014 by defeating Grigor Dimitrov at Stockholm (and damaging the Bulgarian’s own fading hopes for London), he is also on the inside track to London.
Berdych has a nice opening in the bottom of the bracket in Valencia, and might only be opposed by a more desperate Andy Murray or David Ferrer in the finals. A win at Valencia or strong showings at Valencia and Paris get him in for sure.
Perhaps Berdych has been The Invisible Man in the chase for London. He won Rotterdam and his best result was his four-set semifinal loss at Australia. Yet, here he is making his push to be good enough in a deep field of contenders. He’s a proven commodity with at least big-play potential that could do damage at London—that is if he doesn’t realize he is playing big matches.
Andy Murray
3 of 7
Unless Nishikori and Berdych are virtually shut out, it appears that four players are fighting for the eighth and remaining slot for London. Meet Andy Murray, two-time Grand Slam champion and the distant fourth member of the ATP’s recent Golden Age of contemporary champions.
Yes, Murray has been counted out before, but here he comes again, scrapping his way back into the mix. He, like Berdych, just won his second title of 2014, and it may be that his surprising (second) appearance at Roland Garros’ semifinals could be the points difference that propels him to London. Thank the clay, Murray.
Besides Berdych, Murray was the other huge winner this week, avenging his Shanghai loss to David Ferrer by winning Austria. It was a showdown we anticipated last week, and Murray not only helped his own cause but knocked back Ferrer (now trails Murray by 110 points) and leaped Milos Raonic (now trails Murray by 135 points).
For sure, the patrons at London would love to see Murray roar into the UK capital on a competitive upswing, but this must be earned in Valencia and Paris. He could see Ferrer again in the semifinals of the former, and he may need a huge performance in the latter to ensure that he will be wearing black tie to the photo-shoot and banquet in November.
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David Ferrer
4 of 7
Maestro of the B-brackets and tireless traveler, David Ferrer lost his one-set lead to Andy Murray in the Austrian final. For now, he is on the outside looking in at Valencia and Paris like a kid with his fingers pressed up against the cake store’s display window.
It’s the perfect setup for another comeback, something that Ferrer has built his career upon doing. Getting into the Valencia final this week would move him past Murray and give him a chance to move ahead of Berdych, or at least pull within striking range of him with Paris still on the board.
Ferrer may not emerge out of the battle royal, simply because he is clustered around other strong contenders late in the year. But don’t bet against him. He is one veteran that is determined to play and compete at every chance he gets. He will not look back on his career with any regrets about his effort.
Milos Raonic
5 of 7
A couple weeks ago, the bullet-serving Canadian looked like a sure shot to get into London. He has the power to dominate indoors courts and the youth and energy to outlast veterans like Murray, Ferrer and Berdych.
Or not.
Raonic got ill after his long Tokyo final loss to Nishikori a few weeks ago. He lost a few days later to Juan Monaco at Shanghai, and then was bounced out of Moscow’s first round to qualifier Ricardis Berankis.
Fortunately, there is time for Raonic to recover and win at Basel and Paris. He gets the easier draw in the Nadal half (no disrespect to Nadal, but the Spanish superstar has been ailing for months and currently has more on-court questions to answer than one of his media sessions), and may need at least a finals appearance to set up his last ditch effort at Paris.
Grigor Dimitrov
6 of 7
Though Grigor Dimitrov may as well be tennis’ version of The Human Highlight Film (credit to NBA retro-superstar Dominique Wilkins who first earned this moniker), he may have faded from contention after losing his defense of Stockholm to Berdych.
He might have to win Basel, which means going through Roger Federer in the quarterfinals, and then running through Wawrinka and Raonic (or Nadal) to collect 500 points. And this still would not be enough. He would need at least a finals appearance at Paris to get in, unless other stars align.
It’s a tough blow if he doesn’t get in. He won three titles, which matches Cilic and Wawrinka, but of course they had bigger crowns. But this is still more titles than Murray, Berdych, Ferrer and Raonic, the latter two with only one title apiece. Throw in Dimitrov’s Wimbledon semifinal, his Australian Open quarterfinal and two Masters 1000 semifinals, and it’s a tough resume to throw out.
But points are points and Dimitrov can still win his way into London. If you like long odds and believe he is ready for a streak, it just might happen. Just don’t put up the farm.
X-Factors
7 of 7
All of which lead us to many other possibilities. The Race to London may not be decided the way we think.
Injuries or illness can blank one or more of the remaining contestants. Or they could knock out one of those who has already clinched.
Suppose Nadal decided to pull out of London to undergo his surgery for appendicitis. This is not unreasonable considering the mysterious nature of this condition, his considerations to recover for Australia in January and his career history of pulling out of tournaments because of injuries.
Recently, Nadal told Sky Sports (h/t to Tennis.com) that “I will try to do my best (to be in London) but I cannot say, I do not know a hundred percent.”
Or maybe Djokovic decides to be with his wife, Jelena Ristic, for the birth of their baby, projected to be in early November. Djokovic maintained that he will be playing tennis, according to his statement in early October in International Business Times: "We are expecting it to happen in about a month. I'm supposed to play Paris and London. Nothing particularly changes in terms of tennis schedule."
If Nadal or Djokovic decide to withdraw, another opening to London would be available for one of our borderline candidates.
It’s far from over right now.
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