Manchester United's Realistic Expectations for the 2014/15 Season
The 2014/15 season feels as if it is beginning to hit its stride, and as Manchester United prepare to face West Bromwich Albion, it seems like a good time to take a look at their chances of success.
The idea that a title challenge is not automatically assumed to be on the cards is an unsettling one for United fans. Many of the club's supporters will not remember a time in their lives when the Red Devils were not at least natural contenders for the league title.
This season, however, most would accept that the Premier League is not a realistic target for United. The decimation of the team's confidence after David Moyes' disastrous tenure and the pressing need to refresh an ageing squad has led to a radical overhaul.
That overhaul is clearly not complete. It would be unreasonable to have expected the summer transfer activity to have addressed every one of United's needs, but in truth, it went a long way to starting the process.
In assessing United's chances for the season ahead, it seems reasonable to look at each area of the squad and briefly assess its strengths and weaknesses.
Defence
Sir Alex Ferguson's last great side had the centre-back partnership of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic at its foundation. Between them, they continued to provide a significant contribution to the team's success, even though they had stopped playing together regularly.
With Patrice Evra also leaving in the summer, United's defence was stripped of an enormous amount of experience. The acquisitions of Luke Shaw and Marcos Rojo have begun the rebuilding process.
The injury problems of the central defenders who remained at the club have continued this season, and this is the key weakness in this area of United's squad. The unexpected successes of Tyler Blackett and Paddy McNair as deputies have been a boon.
If a back four get the chance to regularly play together—assuming Louis van Gaal does not revert to a back three—it will boost United's chances of success significantly, but that looks like a huge “if” in the face of all those injuries.
Midfield
The diamond midfield, designed by Van Gaal to accommodate United's abundance of quality attackers, has been reasonably effective so far.
However, there is an enormous reliance on three of United's six new signings in midfield. If Daley Blind, Ander Herrera and the magnificent Angel Di Maria can remain injury free, then United's midfield will be a match for most teams in the league.
However, although there is plenty of squad depth in this area in terms of quantity, the quality of those second-choice options leaves much to be desired.
Attack
In Wayne Rooney, Juan Mata, Adnan Januzaj, Robin van Persie and Radamel Falcao, United have an embarrassment of attacking riches. Maintaining their form and confidence may be a challenge, given the lack of opportunities for squad rotation, but United have the best collection of attackers in the league, especially when Di Maria is included in the mix.
It is clear that there is a lack of balance in the squad, which has been addressed to some extent by the summer signings.
If United could put out their first-choice XI every week, the league title would once again be a realistic goal. That is, of course, not likely to happen. If Blind and Herrera are injured for a run of games at the same time, United's fluency will plummet. If Di Maria succumbs to injury, United's ability to link defence and attack will suffer hugely.
United are too reliant on too few players to be realistic title contenders.
Chelsea's exceptional start to the season, Jose Mourinho's vast experience and the well-balanced squad at his disposal has made them look like title contenders. Manchester City have started to hit their stride, and Sergio Aguero's four-goal haul against Tottenham Hotspur is a scary indicator of his return to form and fitness.
United's most realistic goal is third place behind those two clubs (irksome as it is to admit). Arsenal's start to the season has been less than impressive, although they will no doubt mount a run of form at some point.
United and Arsenal share similar issues around squad balance, although I would argue United's collection of attacking players is better than Arsenal's, particularly at centre-forward.
Liverpool's poor start to the season will, presumably, be addressed at some point. It is clear that they are struggling to incorporate their new players, but it is too soon to write off their challenge for a Champions League place.
Third in the league, a good FA Cup run and a couple of decent additions in the January window would represent a successful season for United and seems a realistic expectation.
Finishing outside of the Champions League places is a possibility and would be disastrous, but given the improvements in recent United performances, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.
United fans will be hoping that next season's realistic expectations feature a run at the Premier League title and that the two years in which that was not the case will soon be a distant memory.
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