NFL Picks Week 7: Odds Advice on Weekend's Largest Spreads

NFL bettors will notice that Las Vegas seems to be down on its luck.

The list of Week 7 spreads is interesting, to say the least. No longer do spreads larger than a touchdown pepper the slate—not after all parties have been repeatedly burned by a chaotic season that has the parity-supporting folks beating their chests.

There are already no undefeated teams in the NFL, and just two teams have yet to win a game. Those teams, Oakland and Jacksonville, are a threat each and every week, too, thanks to some explosive rookie quarterbacks.

Below, let's look at the full weekend slate and pick out a few of the bigger spreads to detail.

NFL Week 7 Picks against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Cincinnati at Indianapolis	IND (-3)	CIN	Cincinnati seems poised for a rebound, as the offense continues to roll without key contributors.
Carolina at Green Bay	GB (-7)	CAR	Carolina will keep this one close, but bank on another miracle from Aaron Rodgers when it matters.
New Orleans at Detroit	DET (-2)	DET	Detroit has an elite defense and an offense, even without Calvin Johnson, that can exploit New Orleans.
Miami at Chicago	CHI (-3.5)	CHI	Chicago's offense is going to give Miami more than it can handle.
Seattle at St. Louis	SEA (-7)	SEA	See analysis below.
Tennessee at Washington	WAS (-4)	WAS	Tennessee will have no issues moving the ball regardless of who lines up under center.
Minnesota at Buffalo	BUF (-6)	BUF	The Buffalo defense should have few issues taking advantage of a rookie quarterback.
Cleveland at Jacksonville	CLE (-6)	CLE	Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the league at the moment, so expect a comfortable win.
Atlanta at Baltimore	BAL (-7)	ATL	In what may turn into a shootout, Matt Ryan can keep his team in it. An outright win is another conversation entirely.
Kansas City at San Diego	SD (-4)	SD	San Diego might just be the best team in the league, and expect Charger QB Philip Rivers to shine at home.
NY Giants at Dallas	DAL (-7)	DAL	See analysis below.
Arizona at Oakland	AZ (-4)	AZ	Carson Palmer is back and looks great. Bad news for a reeling Oakland team.
San Francisco at Denver	DEN (-7)	DEN	Peyton Manning against a top-flight defense is still Peyton Manning. Denver's own defense is starting to look elite, too.
Houston at Pittsburgh (Mon., Oct. 20)	PIT (-3.5)	HOU	Pittsburgh is reeling and will not be able to counteract a defense led by J.J. Watt.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 5 p.m. ET, Oct. 18. 

Notable Large Spreads

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at St. Louis Rams

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks are no longer trustworthy in the minds of bettors.

The unthinkable happened last week that characterizes this season quite well—the defending champs took a rare loss at home, albeit against one of the NFL's best, Dallas.

Week	Opponent	Result
3	vs. DAL	L, 34-31
5	at PHI	L, 34-28
6	vs. SF	L, 31-17

Now, St. Louis is no Dallas, but the Rams have looked quite strong in recent weeks against some of the league's best overall teams, including those Cowboys.

Rams coach Jeff Fisher continues to get strong play from quarterback Austin Hill, who has tossed seven scores in his last three games to help the team be a top-10 passing attack. It helps that wideout Brian Quick is finally starting to turn out as the staff hoped, as his 332 yards and three scores this season leads the team.

Quietly, the Rams defense ranks in the top 10 against the pass, too. Wilson is certainly aware of the challenges the underrated unit presents, per the Seahawks on Twitter:

There is cause for concern with Wilson managing just 126 yards and an interception last week against what is supposed to be a weak Cowboys defense, so a road contest may cause some serious issues for a passing attack looking for a rhythm. 

Then again, if the Seattle coaching staff elects to run Marshawn Lynch more than just 10 times (he still gained 61 yards), he should have no issues propelling his team to a win against the No. 26 rush defense.

Expect the champs to get back to basics on the road, stifle a one-dimensional offense and eventually pull ahead comfortably.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Rams 14

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7)

For a few weeks, Eli Manning and the New York Giants had the look of a team that could steamroll any defense in the league. A light bulb seemed to go off, and the team won three straight by a minimum of 10 points.

Things came brutally back to Earth last week in a 27-0 shaming at the hands of Philadelphia, though. Not only did the offense post a goose egg on the scoreboard against a divisional opponent, it lost No. 1 wideout Victor Cruz for the season, too.

Unfortunately for the stumbling Giants, Dallas just so happens to be one of the NFL's hottest teams, and the aforementioned defense actually ranks just outside of the top 10 in terms of pass defense. While there is reason to be positive about these Cowboys, Steve Levy offers some words of caution:

Still, it is difficult to imagine DeMarco Murray cools off anytime soon. It has been a breakout year for Murray, who averages 4.9 yards per carry thanks to 785 yards and six scores on 159 totes. It has made the life of quarterback Tony Romo rather simplistic, hence his completing a career-high 68.6 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns to five interceptions.

Considering Murray was able to roll through Seattle in an upset of the Seahawks for 115 yards and a score, he should have few issues against a New York defense that ranks 17th against the rush and 24th against the pass.

Down a starting running back with Rashad Jennings out until November, without Cruz and coming off a devastating loss, the Giants will not have the ammunition or defenses to handle the surging Cowboys.

Prediction: Cowboys 34, Giants 24

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).