MLB Playoffs 2014: Early Projections and Odds for Giants vs. Royals

The San Francisco Giants punched their ticket to the World Series on Wednesday night, setting up a Fall Classic date with the Kansas City Royals to conclude a thrilling postseason.

In a rare turn of events, a playoff game momentarily followed the established narrative. Aces Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright engaged in a Game 5 pitchers' duel, with the struggling Wainwright edging the sizzling Bumgarner 3-2 before their departures.

But come on, did you really think it would end that easily? Michael Morse hit a pinch-hit home run in the eighth, which prompted Mike Matheny to bring in Michael Wacha for his first appearance since Sept. 26 with the entire season on the line.

It didn't go well. Shocker. Travis Ishikawa, who took Morse's spot in the starting lineup, clobbered a three-run walk-off homer to send the Giants to their third World Series in five years, keeping their even-year streak alive.

Now, they'll meet the Royals, who have yet to lose in eight postseason contests. Neither squad boasts a powerhouse on paper, but one is walking away with a championship.

Let's take an early look at the newly minted World Series matchup between the Giants and Royals.

Game #	Date	Matchup	Time (ET)	TV
GM 1	Tuesday, Oct. 21	Giants at Royals	8 p.m.	Fox
GM 2	Wednesday, Oct. 22	Giants at Royals	8 p.m.	Fox
GM 3	Friday, Oct. 24	Royals at Giants	8 p.m.	Fox
GM 4	Saturday, Oct. 25	Royals at Giants	8 p.m.	Fox
GM 5 *	Sunday, Oct. 26	Royals at Giants	8 p.m.	Fox
GM 6 *	Tuesday, Oct. 28	Giants at Royals	8 p.m.	Fox
GM 7 *	Wednesday, Oct. 29	Giants at Royals	8 p.m.	Fox

Team	Odds to Win Series
Royals	10/11 (-110)
Giants	11/10 (+110)
Prediction:	Royals in 7

Live Stream: MLB.TV (subscription required)

World Series Preview

Ed Zurga/Getty Images

An 88- or 89-win team is going to walk away with the World Series crown. Neither team dominated during the season, but that changed in October.

The Giants and the Royals combined for a plus-78 run differential through the 2014 campaign. The Seattle Mariners, who missed out on the playoffs at 87-75, posted a plus-80 run margin. Even during a grueling 162-game stretch, every single game matters.

ESPN Stats & Info delivered two interesting notes about the teams set to clash next week:

Eric Hosmer acknowledged that few pundits predicted the Royals to go all the way. He expressed his enjoyment for playing the underdog to The Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough.

"It seems like this all a movie right now," Hosmer said. "Obviously, nobody counted us into October baseball. Nobody counted on us to make it this far. It’s fun proving everybody wrong."

This should surprise anyone who watched baseball before October, but the Royals brandish better power numbers than the Giants this postseason. They hit eight playoff home runs in as many games, scoring 42 runs in the process. Yes, this is the same club that hit 95 home runs in the regular season.

Meanwhile, the Giants, who ranked 10th during the season with 101 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), stepped into Game 5 of the National League Championship Series with a .303 slugging percentage. Naturally, they clinched the National League with a trio of long balls after hitting two in the previous nine games.

Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan was among the many baseball analysts marveling at the game's pure unpredictability:

Ed Zurga/Getty Images

Looking at the full body of work, San Francisco sports the better offense. Over the postseason's short sample size, however, Kansas City has displayed much better plate discipline.

One of the most aggressive offenses from April to September, the Royals pieced together an MLB-worst 6.3 percent walk rate. In the playoffs, that mark has soared to 9.5 percent.

Against one of baseball's most precise pitching staffs, they can't abandon that patient approach and resume their free-swinging ways.

Moving on to run prevention, San Francisco wields the superior rotation, led by a rolling Bumgarner and two tested veterans in Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson. Kansas City, on the other hand, holds a major defensive advantage.

Looking for a deciding factor to sway the series' outcome? Fast-forward to the later innings, as each team is harnessing a hot bullpen that can't cool off now. 

During the season, Kansas City's relief corps registered a 3.29 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and 8.65 strikeouts per nine innings compared to the Giants' 3.44 FIP and 7.38 K/9 ratio. More stellar pitching from Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland is the key to Kansas City's success.

Will destiny guide Kansas City to a storybook finish during its first playoff appearance in 29 years? No, because destiny is nothing more than a conceit lazy people use as a crutch to explain what is difficult to comprehend.

The improved plate discipline and power spark along with the league's best defense and back-end relief pitchers? Those are actual reasons to support a Royals victory. Just don't expect another sweep, as they sliced out four of those eight victories in one-run games.

Prediction: Royals in seven.

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.