Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 7: Choosing Top Fantasy Football Locks and Flops

Nearing the midway mark of the 2014 NFL season, the contenders and pretenders are beginning to distinguish themselves ahead of Week 7. A similar phenomenon is occurring in fantasy football, where it's becoming clearer which stars can be trusted to deliver big numbers.

There is an omnipresent, unpredictable element to fantasy that makes setting lineups full of tough judgment calls every week. Matchups largely dictate decisions, but they don't always play out as expected.

In examining the top locks and drops in this week's edition of start 'em, sit 'em, we will take a closer look at some marquee fantasy names and what to expect from them given their specific circumstances.

Start 'Em

Position	Player	Opponent
QB	Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts	vs. Cincinnati Bengals
RB	Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks	at St. Louis Rams
WR	Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens	vs. Atlanta Falcons
TE	Jordan Reed, Washington	vs. Tennessee Titans
D/ST	Cleveland Browns	at Jacksonville Jaguars
K	Dan Bailey, Dallas Cowboys	vs. New York Giants

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is emerging as an unstoppable force. After a discouraging 0-2 start, the light has gone on for the top overall pick of the 2012 NFL draft.

Luck leads the No. 1 scoring offense in football and has thrown for a league-high 1,987 yards and 17 touchdowns. Those stats compare rather well with his noteworthy predecessor, per ESPN's John Buccigross:

The visiting Cincinnati Bengals sport a defense that has struggled since a Week 4 bye.

In the first year without longtime defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, Cincinnati finds itself ranked 22nd against the pass and 29th versus the run. Absent a consistent rushing attack, Luck's brilliance should continue with another monster fantasy performance in Week 7.

The defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks are off to a 3-2 start, with losses to two 5-1 clubs in San Diego and against Dallas last week. America's Team roughed up the reputedly physical Seahawks, so look for bruising running back Marshawn Lynch to return to form on the road when facing St. Louis' 26th-ranked run defense.

Lynch had 61 yards on just 10 carries in Week 6. In the loss to the Chargers, he had just six rushing attempts. That's a combined 16 carries, and Lynch hasn't dipped below 17 carries in any of Seattle's three wins.

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

With the Seahawks seeking to find an offensive rhythm, look for play-caller Darrell Bevell to reestablish the team's run-first identity by unleashing "Beast Mode" onto the Rams. Bevell himself spoke out on the issue on Thursday, per The News Tribune's Gregg Bell (h/t NFL.com's Kevin Petra):

"

The fantasy owners ... I'm not a fantasy owner. I don't care about anyone's (fantasy) points. But I do care about us winning the game. And Marshawn is a huge key for us winning the game. And we do -- and I -- have to do a better job of giving him the ball.

[...] You go to the three games we win, we are up in the 60-play range. The two games we lose, we are in the 40-play range. It's just not enough. All our guys are very talented. We want to have all of them involved. 

"

As a result of Seattle's prospective, run-heavy game plan, inexperienced opposing QB Austin Davis will be forced to challenge the "Legion of Boom" secondary—a defensive backfield that is also hungry to bounce back.

The Atlanta Falcons are 31st in total defense and are traveling to Baltimore to face the Ravens. That bodes well for Steve Smith's chances to thrive, especially with Joe Flacco oozing with confidence coming off a five-TD performance last week.

Field Yates of ESPN notes how explosive Smith has been amid his Ravens renaissance:

Jordan Reed played just his second game of the season for Washington in Week 6 and caught eight passes for 92 yards on 11 targets. Young QB Kirk Cousins should continue relying on Reed as a matchup nightmare safety blanket of sorts, giving the dynamic pass-catcher double-digit targets against Tennessee.

The Washington Post's Mark Bullock feels Reed will evolve into an elite player in time:

Week 7 presents a good opportunity for Reed to bolster his reputation against an opponent that concedes the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends in ESPN.com standard leagues.

After a rocky start to the year, something clicked for the Cleveland Browns defense in Week 6's 31-10 win over Pittsburgh.

That trend ought to continue against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have conceded the most sacks and have a promising but turnover-prone rookie signal-caller in Blake Bortles.

ClevelandBrowns.com's Kevin Jones has noticed how strong the team gets the deeper they allow foes to get:

Jacksonville doesn't have a viable running game, while Cleveland's is among the best. That should keep the Browns fresh to face Bortles, who will likely press into a few mistakes in directing a one-dimensional offense.

Kickers are often a wild card, but Week 7 should see Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey thrive against the New York Giants. Bailey has put up double-digit points in ESPN.com standard leagues in four of Dallas' past five consecutive victories.

Sit 'Em

Position	Player	Opponent
QB	Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears	vs. Miami Dolphins
RB	Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals	at Oakland Raiders
WR	Greg Jennings, Minnesota Vikings	at Buffalo Bills
TE	Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers	vs. Kansas City Chiefs
D/ST	Carolina Panthers	at Green Bay Packers
K	Greg Zuerlein, St. Louis Rams	vs. Seattle Seahawks

As nice as the numbers look for Jay Cutler in 2014—fourth in passing yards, fifth in TD passes and a 97.4 passer rating—he has still been prone to turnovers.

This stat from NFL.com's Gil Brandt bears relevance:

Cutler has thrown two interceptions in three of six starts, and the Chicago Bears encounter the Miami Dolphins in Week 7. Although there are a slew of weapons at Cutler's disposal, he has to deal with a ferocious, Cameron Wake-led pass rush and a stalwart secondary that's eighth against the pass.

Miami's scoring defense is in the bottom third, yet Cutler's continual inclination to force passes will hurt his fantasy stock in this instance.

Andre Ellington has a nagging foot injury. It hasn't kept him out of the lineup. The Oakland Raiders seem like a good matchup on paper, yielding the third-most rushing yards of anyone this season. However, Raiders QB Derek Carr had a coming-out party in Week 6 by tossing four TDs in a near upset of the Chargers.

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

This could turn into a shootout since Carr is facing Arizona's last-ranked pass defense that can't pressure the quarterback. Ellington may make a modest impact in the passing game—just not on the ground as the raw statistics would suggest.

Rookie Minnesota Vikings passer Teddy Bridgewater was sacked eight times in Week 6's loss to Detroit. Now he matches up with a Buffalo Bills unit that ranks behind only the Lions in sacks, so Minnesota's former Pro Bowl receiver Greg Jennings, while the best option at Bridgewater's disposal, is bound to flop on Sunday.

Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus does raise an interesting point if fantasy owners want to get risky and trust the Vikings' line, though:

Other than a monster, three-TD showing in Week 2 against Seattle and two scores against the New York Jets in Week 5, Chargers star Antonio Gates hasn't been a surefire TE1. He has 11 receptions in the past four games after racking up 13 in the opening two.

Gates is in a heated AFC West battle with the Kansas City Chiefs, who have yielded just seven receptions to tight ends in the past three games and have a coach in Andy Reid known for being sharp after a bye week.

Stay away from the Carolina Panthers' D/ST until further notice. They travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers and have been a shell of their elite 2013 selves, allowing an average of 34 points per game in the past four contests.

As strong of a leg as Greg "The Leg"/"Legatron" Zuerlein is praised to have, the St. Louis kicker is going to encounter a buzz saw of a Seahawks team at the Edward Jones Dome this weekend. Zuerlein likely won't be in any position to make kicks, because the Rams might not score but a garbage-time touchdown.