NFL Picks Week 7: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

An early look at the NFL Week 7 slate suggests that football fans should see plenty of late drama from Sunday's action.  At the time of publication, just one game featured a spread of over a touchdown: the Thursday night game between the reeling New York Jets and the New England Patriots.  

Even with a growing sample size that should illuminate more about each team, any attempts at  prognostication this week will be extremely difficult.  This holds particularly true for some of this week's featured matchups, which figure to see the heaviest action from bettors.

Supplementing our analysis with input from national experts, let's outline the current odds for Week 7 and project each matchup, with three highlighted games receiving further attention.

Matchup (Spread)	Time (ET)	Pick ATS
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10)	8:25 p.m. (Thu.)	Patriots
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)	1 p.m.	Ravens
Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins (-6)	1 p.m.	Titans
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at St. Louis Rams	1 p.m.	Seahawks
Cleveland Browns (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars	1 p.m.	Browns
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3)	1 p.m.	Colts
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-6)	1 p.m.	Bills
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (-3)	1 p.m.	Bears
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-2.5)	1 p.m.	Lions
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-7)	1 p.m.	Packers
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-4)	4:05 p.m.	Chargers
Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Oakland Raiders	4:25 p.m.	Cardinals
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7)	4:25 p.m.	Cowboys
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-7)	8:30 p.m.	Broncos
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)	8:30 p.m. (Mon.)	Steelers

Lions (-2.5) over Saints

Leon Halip/Getty Images

The Detroit Lions have teased with their potential for years, but behind a defense that has blossomed into the league's best, the Lions appear to have more staying power in 2014.  After shutting down Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in their last home contest, the Lions will face an equally stiff test against Drew Brees' Saints offense, which still ranks 10th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.

One thing that will aid the Lions is the likely absence of All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham.  Graham sprained his shoulder in New Orleans' last game against Tampa Bay, and early reports suggest that he is unlikely to suit up Sunday.

Of course, Detroit might not have its own incandescent offensive weapon in Calvin Johnson.  ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein reported that the Lions could sit Megatron until Week 10 as he continues to recover from persistent foot injuries.  However, as MassLive.com's Kyle Meinke suggests, the Saints' struggling secondary could provide the antidote Matthew Stafford and Co. need to get going:

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But New Orleans also won't pose the same kind of defensive challenge as some of the outstanding defenses Detroit has already faced, such as Buffalo, Carolina and the New York Jets.

The Saints rank 23rd in overall defense -- second worst among any of Detroit's opponents to date -- and have generated just six sacks. For comparison: Detroit's George Johnson has four all by himself.

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The Saints lack a true perimeter threat, and with Graham out, it seems unlikely that the likes of Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks will make much headway against DeAndre Levy and Glover Quin, Detroit's stalwarts up the middle in coverage.  Look for the Lions to attack the Saints' lead-footed linebackers with screens and in-breaking, short passes to Golden Tate, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. The Lions will earn their fourth win in five games.

Giants (+7) over Cowboys

At first glance, this looks like a curious pick.  The Giants have yet to beat a team with a current record over .500, and after a 27-0 shellacking at Lincoln Financial Field last week, New York appears ill-equipped to stop the hottest team in the NFL.

Nonetheless, this seven-point spread feels a bit high.  As OddsShark.com (via Bleacher Report) notes in its analysis of this game, bettors relying on that recent momentum have pushed this line too high toward Dallas, making the Giants a smarter bet:

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Dallas just beat the defending champs, while New York just got shut out and lost one of its best players. But are the Cowboys ripe for a letdown? And might the Giants be in line for a rebound?

This is one of those rivalries where the records don't matter, and the line on this contest might get pushed toward Dallas. So the smart money in this spot might reside with New York, plus the points.

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While the Cowboys defense can no longer be dismissed after how thoroughly it controlled the line of scrimmage against the Seahawks last week, Dallas still concedes 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 29th in the league.  But the defense has survived because the offense's possession-oriented philosophy means that Cowboys opponents have averaged the third-lowest time of possession per game.

The Giants, who rank ninth in time of possession, possess the ability to reverse that trend.  Dallas rightfully deserves to be favored after five consecutive victories, but New York's familiarity with its NFC East rival makes this a deceptively difficult game to predict.

Broncos (-7) over 49ers

The Broncos have appeared impregnable since their narrow Week 3 loss against the Seattle Seahawks.  However, as Peyton Manning closes in on Brett Favre's all-time touchdown record, the 49ers represent one team that has stifled the future Hall of Famer in past encounters.

Of course, history is not entirely relevant when evaluating San Francisco's current defensive personnel. With the likelihood that Patrick Willis will miss this contest with a sprained toe, the Niners are going to be depleted against Denver's prolific offense.

Even with defensive backs Perrish Cox and Antoine Bethea exceeding expectations thus far, linebackers are crucial to combating Denver's passing game because of the myriad screens, middle hooks and mesh concepts the Broncos utilize.  It is not difficult to envision Manning manipulating raw middle linebackers Chris Borland and Michael Wilhoite in Willis' stead.

With the game in Colorado, expect Denver's hurry-up offense to exploit a Niners defense that will be missing its central organizer and fulcrum.  Even with this line moving up, the Broncos look like solid favorites Sunday night.