State of Play: Analysis of the Euro 2016 Qualifiers After October Matches
The 2016 European Championships qualifiers stepped up a notch or two over the past week, as the international break took most teams up to Matchday 3 in their respective groups.
While there have been a few sides who have performed as expected and taken wins no matter who the opposition, so far, we have seen a qualifying campaign riddled with shock results, surprise early leaders and a number of badly flagging nations.
Here's our complete roundup of each group after the October qualifying fixtures.
Group A
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Surprise start: Iceland—joint-top with nine points and they must be dreaming of making a first major finals after going so close to reaching the 2014 World Cup.
Underperformer: The Netherlands. One win from three is nowhere near enough, and new boss Guus Hiddink is already coming under severe pressure. Turkey as well—they're bottom, with a single point to their name.
Shock result: Iceland 2-0 Netherlands and Turkey 1-2 Czech Republic.
Biggest moment: Gylfi Sigurdsson hammering in his second goal against the Dutch.
Key November fixture: Czech Rep vs. Iceland.
Czech Republic and Iceland lead the way with 100 per cent records. Netherlands (three points) are in third, the play-off spot, with Latvia (two), Kazakhstan and Turkey (both one) bringing up the rear.
Common sense suggests the Netherlands will react and recover since the top two will drop points at some stage, but the Dutch have to show much more than they have so far. Turkey look already to be out of the running.
Group B
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Surprise start: Wales. Top of the standings, unbeaten after three and with a very real chance of making their first-ever European Championships finals.
Underperformer: Bosnia-Herzegovina. After reaching the World Cup, they would have been expected to challenge for the top two here.
Shock result: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-2 Cyprus.
Biggest moment: Gareth Bale scoring the late winner to beat Andorra for Wales and kick-start his team's good run.
Key November fixture: Israel vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina
Israel and Belgium have played a game less, so Wales fans cannot get too comfortable just yet. Those two are one and three points behind the Welsh, respectively, with Cyprus in fourth. Bosnia have yet to win and Andorra, bottom, have lost every match.
Consistency and availability of top players will dictate how long Israel and Wales can maintain their starts. Belgium will likely finish first, but the next two places are up for grabs.
Group C
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Surprise start: Slovakia
Underperformer: Spain
Shock result: Slovakia 2-1 Spain
Biggest moment: Miroslav Stoch heading a late winner to inflict a first qualifying defeat on Spain in eight years.
Key November fixture: FYR Macedonia vs. Slovakia
Slovakia have won three from three, with Spain and Ukraine three points behind. Macedonia have three points, with Belarus and Luxembourg sharing a draw so far at the bottom.
Spain were, and still are perhaps, expected to top the group, so a single loss doesn't dramatically change that dynamic, but there is no doubt that they are still searching for the new iteration of themselves. Slovakia and Ukraine will really battle it out for the second automatic qualifying berth.
Group D
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Surprise start: Poland
Underperformer: Germany
Shock result: Poland 2-0 Germany
Biggest moment: John O'Shea's last-gasp equaliser for Ireland to leave Germany in fourth.
Key November fixture: Scotland vs. Republic of Ireland
Three clear groups are here within the one group: Poland and Ireland are atop on seven points each, then Scotland and World Cup winners Germany on four apiece. Bringing up the rear are Georgia on three and Gibraltar without a point.
Germany are suddenly a beatable team, and shorn of several stars through injury and retirement, they are not finding that transition easy. Three teams are vying for second place, supposedly, but those three have all made better starts to qualifying than the Germans.
Group E
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Surprise start: Lithuania
Underperformer: Switzerland
Shock result: Slovenia 1-0 Switzerland
Biggest moment: Danny Welbeck gunning down the Swiss with a brace for England on Matchweek 1, in the battle between the two fancied teams.
Key November fixture: England vs. Slovenia
England are 3-for-3 without having conceded a goal. Lithuania and Slovenia come next with two wins each. Estonia took a shock win over Slovenia early on and are just above Switzerland, in fifth, with three points each. San Marino are last, as expected, without so much as a goal.
England should walk through this group undefeated now, in spite of their dire performances. Second place was meant to be for Switzerland, therefore, but they are playing catch-up and must beat Lithuania in November. Whether Lithuania or Slovenia can show the consistency to take second rather than third is a key factor in this group.
Group F
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Surprise start: Northern Ireland
Underperformer: Greece
Shock result: Greece 0-2 Northern Ireland
Biggest moment: N. Ireland scoring twice in the last nine minutes to turn defeat to victory in Hungary.
Key November fixture: Romania vs. Northern Ireland
Whatever is going on in the European Championships qualifiers this year, it's affecting Group F more than most.
Northern Ireland are top after winning their opening three games for the first qualifying campaign ever, while Romania have awakened from more or less a 15-year slumber to take second place so far, on seven points. Finland and Hungary have four points each, Euro 2004 winners Greece have a single point in fifth and the Faroe Islands are last.
It's an open group, with apparently zero predictability over who will succeed in any given game, let alone over 10 of them. All to play for, then.
Group G
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Surprise start: Austria
Underperformer: Russia
Shock result: Russia 1-1 Moldova
Biggest moment: Moldova equalising seconds after Russia took the lead to blow the group wide open again.
Key November fixture: Austria vs. Russia
Top of the pile is Austria, unbeaten and with seven points. Russia and Sweden come next on five, having drawn against each other last week. Montenegro are one point further back, with Liechtenstein and Moldova accumulating one point each.
Montenegro will be kicking themselves for a 0-0 draw with Liechtenstein, where a win would see them second right now; they had 28 shots in the game but couldn't find the net. Russia have played two of their three games against the bottom nations and should be clear, but they continue to look ropey under Fabio Capello.
In a group with no clear favourite or standout squad, four teams are going to fight right to the end for two automatic spots and the play-off place; one will be left severely disappointed.
Group H
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Surprise start: Norway
Underperformer: None
Shock result: None...unless Italy overcoming Azerbaijan only in the final minutes, 2-1 at home, counts.
Biggest moment: Martin Odegaard coming on for Norway at 15 years of age vs. Bulgaria.
Key fixture: Italy vs. Croatia
The top two are the expected top two, with Italy and Croatia both enjoying three wins from three. In the race for third, it's advantage Norway (six points) after they beat Bulgaria (three points), with Azerbaijan and Malta both rock bottom (zero).
This group is toeing the line for once; it seems probable Italy will take top spot, though through historical showings rather than recent form, and the clash between the two next month could tell us much. Norway haven't reached a major finals since Euro 2000; the expansion of this tournament was designed to help exactly this sort of nation rediscover their international pedigree.
Group I
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Surprise start: Albania
Underperformer: Serbia
Shock result: Portugal 0-1 Albania
Biggest moment: Cristiano Ronaldo's last-second header to beat Denmark on Tuesday.
Key November fixture: Serbia vs. Denmark—plus whenever the rematch of Serbia vs. Albania might fall.
Teams are all over the place in this group: Albania top with four points from two games, along with Denmark, four points from three. Portugal have won and lost once each and sit in third. Then, Serbia have just one point—but from only one completed match so far. Bottom, in the five-team group, is Armenia, with one point after two games.
Part of the reason for the disjointed number of games is the abandoned Serbia vs. Albania fixture, which fell foul to political tensions and crowd trouble on Tuesday evening, per BBC News. A rematch, a fine, points deductions or any number of other potential outcomes makes this a difficult group to judge right now.
Portugal, meanwhile, look to be getting back on track after changing managers and kick-starting their campaign with a late win at Denmark, who themselves would have gone top had they held onto the draw and their unbeaten start. Armenia might be bottom but are still to be reckoned with, only narrowly losing to Denmark and conceding a last-minute equaliser to Serbia.
This group could be the tightest of all, with all five nations hoping for a top-three finish at worst.
