49ers Red-Zone Offense Taking Steps in Right Direction
One of the primary issues the San Francisco 49ers have faced in the 2014 NFL season has been the lack of offensive production in the red zone.
Coming into Week 6, the 49ers had converted just 44.1 percent of red-zone appearances into touchdowns—good for 25th in the league.
"Found the 49ers red-zone playbook http://t.co/nxb4Ob9lj4
— Tre9er (@Tre9er) October 9, 2014"
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After falling behind 14-0 to the St. Louis Rams on Monday Night Football, San Francisco would need a little more production out of the offense when it came to converting their all-too-frequent field goals into seven points.
That chance came in Week 6.
On the surface, San Francisco's red-zone efforts against St. Louis do not quite indicate that the 49ers have completely turned the page in this area. But at least we can see some signs that San Francisco is moving in the right direction.
The 49ers scored one touchdown out of two red-zone attempts in Week 6—an 11-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Colin Kaepernick to wide receiver Anquan Boldin at the 9:58 mark of the third quarter.
The play itself was as creative as it was exciting.
Does this suggest that San Francisco is in line to improve in this critical area?
In this article, we break down the 49ers' efforts to increase their red-zone production. While their approach is far from perfect, signs are pointing to a gradual improvement in this crucial aspect of their offense.
The Remaining Negatives
It would be nice to suggest San Francisco's red-zone woes have all but disappeared. But this is far from the case.
The 49ers scored just once out of two red-zone trips in St. Louis. After the 31-17 victory, San Francisco still has just eight red-zone touchdowns on the season. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has received most of the criticism for the 49ers' struggles in this area so far.
The extent of justification for this criticism will remain up for debate, but Roman does have to bear some of the blame for a failed red-zone appearance in the fourth quarter.
San Francisco found itself with a 2nd-and-goal at the Rams' 2-yard line with 7:05 remaining. From that point, Roman called three straight runs up the middle with rookie back Carlos Hyde as the ball-carrier.
None succeeded.
Let's take a look at San Francisco's final attempt—a 4th-and-goal try that would have given the 49ers a 30-14 lead.
On this fourth-down attempt, Hyde attempted to rush right up the middle—in similar fashion to the previous two 49ers attempts. McDonald motioned to the left of San Francisco's offensive line. A Rams defender followed him, revealing man coverage on the outside.
But St. Louis did a great job of stuffing any openings along San Francisco's O-line, which prevented Hyde from penetrating sufficiently enough to cross into the end zone.
The 49ers subsequently turned the ball over on downs.
Let's think about the play-calling for a second here. Assuming McDonald had a slight edge in momentum as he moved in motion, one might think that a play-action fake to Hyde might have set up for a potential pass play to McDonald at the left side of the end zone here.
The Rams were already guessing a run play at this point, so we could assume that McDonald would have been in single coverage. Instead, McDonald's motion did little more than just draw a defender toward the center of St. Louis' defense on the snap.
Roman obviously did not call a play to take advantage of this possibility. Perhaps this was due to the second-year tight end's woes in the receiving game—influenced further by his costly first-quarter fumble that resulted in a Rams touchdown, which was a primary negative from San Francisco's effort according to Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area.
What is more important is the fact that Roman called three straight running plays up the gut. All were stuffed. Perhaps a well-designed screen or properly executed play-action pass would have caught the Rams defense off guard.
With hindsight our only guide, speculation will likely continue.
Focusing on the Positives
The aforementioned drive is not the only time Roman and the play-calling were too predictable.
Remember that one drive in Week 3 against the Arizona Cardinals? Similar play-calling resulted in almost the same exact results.
But let's not jump on the anti-Roman bandwagon just yet. We have to give credit where it's due.
St. Louis sold out to stop the run in Week 6 according to Christian Gin of Examiner.com—the results of which held San Francisco's vaunted rushing attack to an average of just 3.0 yards per attempt during the contest.
On top of that, Hyde was supposed to be a power back capable of punching balls into the end zone on such plays. While he should still develop into this type of runner, the simple fact remains that he just could not get it done on this play.
We can second-guess the decision-making all we want, coming up with a variety of different answers, but let's shift our focus to the call before Hyde's three-straight rushing attempts up the middle.
If you watched the game, you'll know what this author is talking about. Kaepernick attempted a pass to McDonald—or No. 1 tight end Vernon Davis, depending on how you look at it.
Davis and McDonald ran into each other, and the ball dropped for an incomplete pass on the 1st-and-goal try at the Rams' 2-yard line.
McDonald is highlighted at the top of the screen. He moved behind the Rams defense toward the right side of the end zone. Davis ran an outside route toward the same corner. After a play fake, Kaepernick rolled out to his right and attempted the pass to this opening in St. Louis' defense.
Both McDonald and Davis converged on the ball, but the play-calling was sufficient enough to confuse the Rams defense. Look at how wide-open both tight ends were in this situation:
Unfortunately, San Francisco's tight end tandem ran into each other, and the pass was incomplete.
So why should we list this as a positive?
First, we shouldn't expect that Davis and McDonald will suffer from this same sort of miscommunication moving forward. Either tight end could have come up with the reception had the other been called off.
More importantly, this was the correct call in this situation, and Kaepernick found an open receiver at the right moment.
The failure to execute properly is a setback, but at least the pieces were in place to suggest that Roman's play-calling got it right at this point. It's hard to suggest anything else.
But this particular play does not highlight the 49ers' improvements in the red zone as much as this next selection.
In the third quarter, Kaepernick was able to connect with Boldin for an 11-yard touchdown reception.
Let's take a look at the nuts and bolts behind this critical grab.
Boldin lined up to the left of San Francisco's line. He moved toward the center of the end zone then cut back toward the outside. Kaepernick fakesd the handoff and rolled out to his left.
With a Rams defender converging, Kaepernick delivered a soft pass toward Boldin (Boldin had since made his move behind St. Louis' defense).
Boldin was able to haul in this pass, which was delivered just over the reach of Rams cornerback Janoris Jenkins.
Take a look at the play in real time.
Kaepernick is dangerous when moving outside the pocket. Niners fans already know his ability to extend plays, and this is a perfect example.
However, the play fake set up the pass. Jenkins was out of position just enough to allow Kaepernick to find his man. While Kaepernick's rocket arm has already received plenty of attention over the course of his career, the element of a touch pass comes into focus.
It's nice to see that development.
This is the sort of play-calling we should hope for moving forward. While not all opposing defensive backs will bite on this type of play, it at least takes advantage of the 49ers' tendencies to run the ball frequently and often.
Defenses will continue to respect San Francisco's ground game, especially in red-zone appearances. This sort of creativity and execution can help culminate in touchdown drives and not the many field goals upon which the 49ers have relied for much of 2014.
Moving Forward
It's a small sample size, but we can certainly speculate that defenses will continue to guard against the 49ers' tendencies to run the ball frequently in red-zone appearances.
While Roman and the offense should not abandon this approach entirely, it would be wise to mix things up frequently enough to force opponents to guard against a variety of plays. We've seen some positive results against a defense that was dead set against halting Kaepernick and the 49ers offense.
San Francisco will need to continue this trend as it prepares for a tough road matchup against the Denver Broncos in Week 7.
On top of the correct play-calling seen on Monday Night Football, it would be nice for the 49ers to mix in a few more different looks. Perhaps Roman would be willing to dial up some properly executed screen passes to the outside. Slants, hook patterns and post routes may also allow San Francisco to exploit some weaknesses in opposing defenses.
Ultimately, the overall improvement within the red zone will fall upon the proper play-calling from the coaching staff and the ability of the players to execute it properly, but if the 49ers can sustain the improvement gained in Week 6, the offense will be that much better off as the season rolls on.
The weapons are there. The opportunities will be.
All that remains is for San Francisco to seize them properly.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers' news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterMcShots on Twitter.
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