Week 7 NFL Picks: Predictions on Vegas' Mid-Week Betting Odds and Lines

As we enter Week 7 of the NFL season, it is clear that we don’t really know much of anything.

The New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers have looked both incredible and terrible at different points this season. The New Orleans Saints, a popular Super Bowl pick before the year began, are a measly 2-3. The Arizona Cardinals are leading the vaunted NFC West, while the Seattle Seahawks actually lost a home game.

And we may just live in a world where the Dallas Cowboys are the best team in the NFL.

It seems like the best we can do each week is offer an educated guess at the games, and that is exactly what we will do here. The mid-week betting lines for these predictions are courtesy of Odds Shark as of Tuesday afternoon.

Date	Matchup	Spread	Predicted Winner Against Spread
Thursday, Oct. 16	New York Jets at New England Patriots	NE -10.5	Patriots
Sunday, Oct. 19	Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears	CHI -3	Bears
Sunday, Oct. 19	Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens	BAL -7.5	Ravens
Sunday, Oct. 19	Tennessee Titans at Washington	WAS -6	Washington
Sunday, Oct. 19	Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams	SEA -7.5	Seahawks
Sunday, Oct. 19	Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars	CLE -5.5	Browns
Sunday, Oct. 19	Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts	IND -3	Colts
Sunday, Oct. 19	Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills	BUF -5	Bills
Sunday, Oct. 19	New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions	DET -2.5	Lions
Sunday, Oct. 19	Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers	GB -7.5	Packers
Sunday, Oct. 19	Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers	SD -4	Chargers
Sunday, Oct. 19	Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders	AZ -3	Cardinals
Sunday, Oct. 19	New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys	DAL -7	Cowboys
Sunday, Oct. 19	San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos	DEN -7	Broncos
Monday, Oct. 20	Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -3	Texans

Difficult Calls

New York Jets at New England Patriots

The New England Patriots are going to win this game, but it is a much more difficult call predicting whether they will cover the large point spread or not.

New England has won the past six regular-season home matchups against the New York Jets and is on something of a roll after a blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Everyone left Tom Brady and the Patriots for dead two weeks ago, but the future Hall of Famer dashed the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills for 653 passing yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions.

The Jets can’t say the same about their quarterback.

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Geno Smith has six touchdown passes and seven interceptions this year and sports an NFL-worst 69.7 passer rating. In two games against New England last season, Smith threw one touchdown and four interceptions and was sacked eight times.

Head coach Rex Ryan had an answer for those who want Smith on the bench, though, according to STATS LLC, via ESPN.com: “I think Geno is the best way to go right now. That’s why I’m comfortable saying he will be our starter.”

Perhaps more concerning for the Jets is the fact that the defense has gone downhill in recent outings. In fact, New York allowed 31 points the past two games and 300 rushing yards to the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos after giving up only 253 rushing yards in the first four contests.

Things got even worse when cornerback Dee Milliner was lost for the year with an Achilles injury on Sunday.

The red-hot Patriots offense is the last thing that the Jets' struggling defense needs to see. With two quarterbacks heading in opposite directions, home-field advantage and a reeling Jets defense, New England will cover the spread.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Jets 17

Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears

On the surface, picking the Chicago Bears here seems like the straightforward move.

After all, the Miami Dolphins are coming off a heartbreaking loss in the final seconds to the Green Bay Packers, while the Bears are riding high after a critical victory in Atlanta. That win moved Chicago’s record to 3-3 and kept it within a game of the Detroit Lions and Packers in the division.

Still, the realization that Miami lost the game to Green Bay shouldn’t take away from the fact that it controlled the proceedings.

The Dolphins had a 14.5-minute advantage in time of possession, eight more first downs and 24 more offensive snaps. What’s more, Aaron Rodgers and the vaunted Packers passing offense only managed to gain 4.7 yards per pass.

David Goldman/Associated Press

Miami’s defense could give Chicago an issue, especially with Olivier Vernon, Cameron Wake and Randy Starks along the line. Jay Cutler has been sacked 15 times this year, including seven the past two weeks, so Miami’s defensive ends are likely ready to start this one already.

On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins’ revamped offensive line has been critical in Lamar Miller’s emergence. Miller is averaging 5.2 yards per carry, which is third in the NFL.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is talented but not quite as consistent as the Dolphins would like, but the last time a team with a strong running attack and defense but up-and-down quarterback came into Chicago, the Buffalo Bills pulled off the upset in Week 1.

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

John Breech of CBS Sports actually predicted a Dolphins victory in this one:

"

The AFC's most unpredictable team is playing the NFC's most unpredictable team, which means something unpredictable is probably going to happen. Unpredictable would be Ryan Tannehill throwing for over 300 yards, along with three touchdown passes, two numbers that he hasn't hit all season. Dolphins 24-20 over Bears.

"

Clearly, there is reason for pause if you are simply going with the home team. For what it’s worth, the Bears are 0-2 at home and 3-1 on the road this season.

Still, the highly regarded Bears offense finally seemed to click down the stretch of Sunday’s game against Atlanta.

Chicago made a concerted effort to get Brandon Marshall involved, and Matt Forte found the end zone multiple times (much to the relief of fantasy owners). The Dolphins front seven is daunting, but the Bears have too many weapons on the outside in the form of Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett that can neutralize Miami’s push up front.

Chicago will make the necessary plays down the stretch of this nail-biter to barely cover the spread. 

Prediction: Bears 24, Dolphins 20

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