Week 7 Waiver Wire: Top Pickups and Drops

We're getting to the point in the season where the waiver wire is arguably more important than draft day. Top picks like Montee Ball, Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green sit on the injury report while the likes of Branden Oliver transform into overnight sensations.

High variance is part of what makes fantasy football so great (and so frustrating). No one thought DeMarco Murray would be the best running back in football coming into this season. No one thought a move to Baltimore would result in Steve Smith becoming, well, 2005 Steve Smith. No one thought Peyto—oh, right. Nvm. 

In that sense, that's why fans obsessing to the point of a show like The League becomes possible. Everyone has their one league they care about more than anyone else, to the point they'll express the foulest of sentiments about the people they're closest to. 

That's why people read articles like this, to ensure that foul language is coming out of envy—not pity. And that's why you should continue reading this particular article, because I'm a super smart guy and awesome and great at everything.*

(*Not really.)

Top Pickups

Own Them Now

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1. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos (5.1 Percent Owned)
2. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings (5.4 Percent Owned)
3. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (38.8 Percent Owned)
4. James Jones, WR, Oakland Raiders (46.2 Percent Owned)
5. Jordan Reed, TE, Washington (50.5 Percent Owned)

Last week I posited that Hillman could overtake Montee Ball as the Broncos' starting running back going forward. His Week 6 performance did nothing to dissuade that feeling. 

Hillman hopped into the starting lineup and turned in the best overall performance of a Denver back this season, rushing for 100 yards on 24 carries. While he didn't get into the end zone and the offensive line still had its troubles run blocking, this was a promising result against a stellar run defense.

The Jets came into Sunday with a top-10 yardage number against the run and were 11th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

With Ball's groin injury considered significant, Hillman should have another week or two to cinch the job—albeit against a couple tough front sevens. The 49ers await next Sunday before a Thursday Night Football clash with the Chargers in Week 9. Those aren't exactly the types of defenses Hillman would have preferred while auditioning, but he's off to a promising start.

McKinnon, meanwhile, appears to be on his way to the inevitable starting gig over Matt Asiata. The rookie back had 17 touches to Asiata's three and was on the field for 33 more snaps. As anyone who has watched the two knows, this has been a long time coming. McKinnon is significantly more talented and explosive than Asiata, who held the job in the post-Adrian Peterson days mostly for pass-protection purposes.

If Mike Zimmer is comfortable with McKinnon at this point, he may be the workhorse in the second half.

The absence of a star also opened the door for Sanu, who had 10 receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's tie with Carolina. Playing without A.J. Green, Andy Dalton went to the Sanu 14 times—double that of any other pass-catcher. Bob Holtzman of ESPN reported Green is expected to miss another week, this one coming against the Colts' shaky secondary.

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Sanu is a top-20 guy this week and a solid flex play going forward.

As for Jones and Reed, both occupy a similar space: guys who should have already been owned. Though most will spend their weeks fawning over Andre Holmes (about whom more anon), it's actually Jones who has been Derek Carr's most consistent target. The offseason acquisition has at least eight fantasy points in four of five games thus far and is a solid red-zone target on underneath throws.

Reed was dropped in about half of ESPN.com leagues due to injury but is already back to top-eight fantasy tight end status in his lone week back. He looked close to 100 percent, catching eight passes for 92 yards on a team-high 11 targets. More important: Niles Paul was the recipient of only two Kirk Cousins looks. Reed is the clear No. 1 tight end on an offense that appears committed to throwing the ball 35 times a week. 

As long as he's healthy, he's an every-week start.

Looking Long Term (and for Deeper Leagues)

1. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants (7.8 Percent Owned)
2. Andre Holmes, WR, Oakland Raiders (0.4 Percent Owned)
3. Brandon Bolden, RB, New England Patriots (1.8 Percent Owned)
4. Storm Johnson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (1.1 Percent Owned)
5. Jace Amaro, TE, New York Jets (1.3 Percent Owned)

When the Giants drafted Beckham in May, they envisioned him giving Eli Manning his most dynamic one-two punch at receiver since the halcyon days of Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks. Instead, it appears Beckham will merely be a Victor Cruz replacement.

Cruz will almost certainly miss the remainder of the season after suffering a torn patellar tendon Sunday night, per Dan Graziano of ESPN. Beckham didn't do much when Cruz went out, finishing with two receptions for 28 yards in the 27-0 loss to the Eagles. In his two NFL games, the LSU product has alternated between spectacular flashes and head-shaking rookie mistakes.

Teams already respect Beckham's physical talent. His downfield explosiveness has opposing defensive coordinators playing their defensive backs a step or two back to account for his top-end speed. The Giants should do a better job of taking advantage of those situations by running pick plays and quick-hit screens to Beckham in bunch formations.

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Beckham also knows he'll need to do more. Starting now.

“They brought me in, I was their first pick,” Beckham told reporters, via the Daily News' Ebenezer Samuel. “I know they already expect big things from me. But with Vic going down, I just have to play bigger.”

Holmes had had no problems playing big over the last two weeks. The former Hillsdale College standout has made nine receptions for 195 yards and three touchdowns in those games, emerging as a dangerous downfield target. For the season, the 6'4", 210-pound Holmes has averaged 17.9 yards per reception and had a 77-yard touchdown in the Week 6 loss to San Diego.

There is a chance he'll be big-play dependent going forward, but his emergence is something to keep an eye on. (Especially if Carr starts going downfield more often.)

On the running back side of things, I don't especially feel great about Bolden or Johnson. Bolden will have to contend with the whims of Bill Belichick, which has been death for anyone (HI!) who rode the Shane Vereen bandwagon heading into the season. Belichick might bring back Corey Dillon for all we know. 

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Johnson might not be good at football. Even if he is good at football, he's part of an offense filled with players who are not good at football. The Jaguars running game has been a mess all season, to the point one kinda-sorta cool 20-yard run got Johnson an extended look against the Titans. 

But, hey, Johnson and Bolden are NFL running backs who are going to receive carries in the coming weeks. In today's market, that counts for something.

Amaro is another recipient of a tepid recommendation, thanks in large part to the failings of his surrounding talent. The rookie tight end grabbed 10 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown against Denver, taking advantage of Geno Smith's increasing propensity for two-foot throws. The Jets had one play longer than 15 yards all game and continue to disintegrate before our eyes.

Perhaps Amaro can be the shining light in a dark season. With Smith throwing him the ball, though, you're much better off finding a more reliable target elsewhere.

Drop These Dudes

For Obvious Reasons

David Richard/Associated Press

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (82.2 Percent Owned)
2. Ray Rice, RB, Free Agent (68.5 Percent Owned)
3. Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers (65.5 Percent Owned)
4. Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington (74.7 Percent Owned)
5. Dennis Pitta, TE, Baltimore Ravens (62 Percent Owned)
6. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings (60 Percent Owned)
7. Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots (93.6 Percent Owned)
8. Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants (100 Percent Owned)
9. Donald Brown, RB, San Diego Chargers (70.9 Percent Owned)

Please stop owning injured/suspended/released football players. It is a bad use of your resources. It also makes me want to cry.

For Performance Reasons

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1. Toby Gerhart, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (87 Percent Owned)
2. Chris Johnson, RB, New York Jets (89.6 Percent Owned)
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Oakland Raiders (82.4 Percent Owned)
4. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (78.6 Percent Owned)
5. Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots (78.8 Percent Owned)
6. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (81.4 Percent Owned)
7. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Indianapolis Colts (71.1 Percent Owned)

We should probably rename this section, "The Curse of the Name Brand." All seven players listed are guys you've heard of before. All have had their moments of fantasy relevance, and in the case of Johnson and Jones-Drew, their all-out fantasy brilliance. Drafting one of these dudes may have even captured a league title for someone a couple years back.

This is 2014. And all of these players have performed like hot garbage.

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

There are 49 running backs with more fantasy points than Toby Gerhart. There are 41 with more points than Chris Johnson. Jones-Drew has rushed the ball one fewer time than Blake Bortles. Blount somehow seems productive when placed on this list, despite having more than 29 rushing yards once all season.

Amendola is tied for sixth on the Patriots in targets with Kenbrell Thompkins, who no longer plays for the New England Patriots. Owning Bowe in fantasy leagues hasn't been fun since 2011. Same for Nicks.

Let's play a fun game. Combined, these seven players have scored 130 total fantasy points thus far. That is three more points than Philip Rivers, who is one human being. 

This is not what one would call ideal. There is no comprehensible reason for the high ownership of those players other than they were expected to be/used to be good at football. Fantasy football is about stats, not names. It's time everyone starts acting as such.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter

All ownership percentages are via ESPN.com.