10 Critical Decisions That Will Make or Break MLB Teams' 2014-2015 Offseasons
The 2014-15 offseason has already begun for almost every MLB club, and as usual, the stakes are high. The direction that general managers take over the next several months will have lasting ramifications for their teams.
As such, we will look at 10 decisions that will make or break an organization’s offseason.
Now, these decisions could regard players set to hit free agency or revolve around a specific area of need on any given 25-man roster. The topic could also relate to a managerial decision or a front office shakeup.
And yes, one move can have a lasting impact in MLB. Look no further than the signing of Jose Abreu by the Chicago White Sox for an example.
Simply put, general manager Rick Hahn’s decision to put up a blind bid of $68 million for a player with no track record outside of Cuba (yes, we know he played in international tournaments), proved critical to the White Sox’s improvement this past season and bodes well for several years to come.
Here are 10 critical situations to keep an eye on during the 2014-15 offseason.
Will the Cincinnati Reds Trade Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos or Aroldis Chapman?
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You can blame a couple of things for the 76-86 record the Cincinnati Reds finished with.
The lineup, for example, finished 13th in the National League in runs scored (595) and 14th in hits (1,282), batting average (.238), on-base percentage (.296) and on-base plus slugging (.661). In the bullpen, the unit posted the second-worst ERA (4.11) and blew 19 save opportunities, per ESPN.com.
There were also the injuries to Mat Latos and Homer Bailey that severely impacted what the rotation was able to do. It was a mess of a season.
While general manager Walt Jocketty may not have the financial resources to be a heavy player in free agency, he does have some valuable trade chips to work with. And the decision between improving the bullpen and adding a bat will make or break this offseason.
That could mean trading Johnny Cueto. It could also mean saying goodbye to Mat Latos or Aroldis Chapman, although the latter won’t net as large of a return.
While we are not advocating for any particular direction here, John Erardi from Cincinnati.com had some interesting thoughts on trading Cueto, arguing that he could net “a hitter who is absolutely critical for helping turn this franchise back into a winner.”
In any case, Jocketty is going to want to target a corner outfielder or perhaps a shortstop. It could mean the difference between contending in 2015 and watching the rest of the division battle for a playoff spot.
Where Will the Chicago White Sox Allocate the Funds?
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As CSN Chicago’s Dan Hayes recently noted, Chicago White Sox general manager “Rick Hahn has cash to spend this offseason and it’s partly because of several team-friendly contracts signed in the past two seasons."
In particular, Hayes pointed out the contracts given to Jose Abreu, Chris Sale and Jose Quintana as being of particular value given their level of production.
In a separate article, Hayes pointed out that thanks to “reduced spending on the amateur draft and international market,” the club will save an additional $4.5 million and will likely open up next season with a payroll of around $49 million prior to arbitration.
What this all means is that the White Sox can be aggressive this offseason. But where?
In the starting rotation, where a right-hander is of critical importance? After all, there could be four lefties—Sale, Quintana, John Danks and Carlos Rodon—in the rotation next season. And if contending in 2015 is truly the goal, the team can’t be comfortable with Chris Bassitt, Hector Noesi or Scott Carroll as the only righty.
Hahn also needs to add a bat in front of and behind superstar Jose Abreu. That could be done via free agency or by facilitating a trade. Either way, it will require an increase in payroll.
And we would be remiss if we didn’t mention that the White Sox need at least two relievers, preferably lefties. It is so bad in the bullpen that Zach Putnam was the only guy who finished the 2014 season with a WHIP below 1.300.
WIll the Chicago Cubs Open Up the Coffers for Two Pitchers?
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Bleacher Report’s Jacob Kornhauser recently wondered whether the “the [Chicago] Cubs spend big this season and go for the division in 2015, or do they spend a decent amount and go all in for 2016?”
That, right there, is the decision that will make or break this offseason.
Now, while each avenue has its own merits given the availability of players this offseason and next, as well as obvious financial obstacles, the Cubs should strongly consider adding two starters this offseason.
At the top of the list is Jon Lester, of course, who has long been rumored to be a target of general manager Jed Hoyer. He has been mentioned by numerous columnists over the past couple of months, including CSN Chicago's Patrick Mooney.
But will Hoyer stop at adding Lester (if that is indeed his guy) this winter?
Well, if we take president of baseball operations Theo Epstein at his word, there is no way Hoyer will be able to add only one arm. "Our goal,” Epstein said, “in 2015 is to win the National League Central," via MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat.
Simply put, the Cubs won’t have the starting pitching to win the NL Central if they only add one top-tier arm. Sure, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks are fine pitchers, but after them, there is only supposition.
Tsuyoshi Wada may not be back. The front office will try and trade Edwin Jackson, but good luck with that. And while Travis Wood and Jacob Turner have shown flashes, there is nothing to suggest they can be a part of a playoff rotation.
If the 2015 postseason is indeed the goal, adding two legitimate starters is the only course of action.
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Who Do the Washington Nationals Turn to at Second Base?
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The way the 2014 season ended was surely a disappointment for the Washington Nationals. Losing in the National League Division Series to the San Francisco Giants after having the best record in the NL is not what anyone envisioned.
That said, the core of manager Matt Williams’ club is in good shape, with the exception of second base.
That makes general manager Mike Rizzo’s decision on the position a critical one to the club’s success in 2015.
See, Danny Espinosa doesn’t possess the offensive fortitude to complement the rest of the lineup. And with the likely departure of Adam LaRoche, getting the most out of every spot in the lineup takes on added importance.
Now Mark Zuckerman from NatsInsider.com noted that Espinosa is contemplating making a permanent move away from switch-hitting to being a right-handed hitter, where he has better numbers. But as Zuckerman points out, the change “doesn’t guarantee success.”
Other options are to bring back Asdrubal Cabrera, who was acquired at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, or swing a trade using pitching depth. For his part, Cabrera is open to returning. “I would love to stay here,” he said, adding that a permanent switch to second base wouldn’t preclude him from playing for the Nationals next year, via MASN.com’s Dan Kolko.
All told, what Rizzo does at second is the key. The Nationals were a fine offensive club in 2014, but the loss of LaRoche, coupled with poor production from whoever plays second base, could sink next year before it begins.
What Do the Pittsburgh Pirates Do Behind the Plate?
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Much has been written about the future of Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Russell Martin.
True, no one knows what is going to happen, but recent revelations cast a foreboding shadow on Martin’s chances of staying with the club. This from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman:
"The Pirates made a late attempt to re-sign star catcher Russell Martin with an offer sometime during this season, but Martin is well-positioned for a monster payday after his terrific performance and there's no indication the sides are anywhere near close.
The Pirates are said to have met on Martin in spring training, but the team ultimately decided to wait until during the season began to make a proposal. By the time they did make an offer, his value, and presumably his price, had to have gone up.
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And seeing as how there isn’t a serviceable replacement in the system or on the open market, losing Martin could be a death blow to the 2015 season. Simply put, it doesn't matter how good Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison are, losing the catcher will leave a gap in leadership and in the lineup that will be next to impossible to overcome.
To be fair, general manager Neal Huntington recently said that the team is willing to “stretch beyond our normal comfort zone” to keep the All-Star in town, per TribLive.com’s Travis Sawchik. That means there is at least a glimmer of hope something can be done.
Either way, bringing back Martin is the move that will make the offseason. Losing him to free agency will break it.
The Minnesota Twins' Managerial Decision
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Perhaps Minnesota Twins general manager Terry Ryan hasn’t been wowed by any of the candidates who’ve interviewed for the vacant manager position after Ron Gardenhire was let go. Then again, he’s only spoken with Gene Glynn, Doug Mientkiewicz and Paul Molitor, per John Shipley from TwinCities.com.
Now, Cleveland Indians bench coach Sandy Alomar Jr. and Torey Lovullo, who holds the same position for the Boston Red Sox, are supposed to interview as well, but it’s safe to say that Ryan would be wise to accelerate the process a bit.
True, choosing the wrong guy is a mistake the franchise can ill-afford to make. But with the team looking to improve on yet another 90-loss season, the first order of business is putting a coaching staff together, starting with the skipper.
And Ryan would be wise to find a guy who can reach young players while simultaneously focusing on fundamentals. In essense, Gardenhire seven seasons ago.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Twins would be wise to have a man in place by the time free agency rolls around. Finances are tight enough as it is for the club; the last thing he needs is the specter of uncertain leadership hindering his chances of landing whichever free agents he targets.
Either way, finding the right guy will not only impact this offseason, but future ones as well.
How Aggressive Will the Texas Rangers Be?
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Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels has a lot on his plate right now.
Not only is he in the midst of finding a manager to replace Ron Washington, who stepped down in the middle of the season, but he has to decide what he is going to do with a club that was decimated by injuries and ended up losing 95 games.
Frankly, figuring out what to do with his roster will be the decision that makes or breaks this offseason.
Don’t take that to mean that finding the eventual successor to Washington isn’t important. Quite the contrary. It’s just that Daniels is stuck in the worst position possible—in the middle of needing to rebuild and going for it all.
See, he has a roster laden with talent but several pieces short. Most notably, Daniels needs to add depth to the rotation and bullpen and at least one right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup.
Unfortunately, he has several contracts—Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo and Elvis Andrus—that run through 2020 (at the earliest) and are cumbersome from a fiscal perspective. He also has a farm system that is relatively thin following years of deadline deals aimed at reaching the World Series.
And as far as trading talent to improve his 25-man roster, Daniels faces an uphill battle. As Brad Johnson from MLBTradeRumors.com noted, his “trade assets are at a low point.”
It is not an enviable position to be in, and frankly, whichever direction he goes will be second-guessed.
Does Andrew Friedman Open Up a Pathway for the Youngsters?
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The team has a bullpen that is in disarray, an outfield that has too many bodies, a shortstop scheduled to hit free agency and just lost the National League Division Series to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Such is the state of affairs that Andrew Friedman inherits as he begins life as the new director of baseball operations for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The question that will be answered in a relatively short amount of time is whether or not he will oversee a slight retooling or if he will open up a path for some of the most heralded prospects in the game.
While the direction he takes is of great importance, we already know that he is not averse to making the moves he deems needed for sustained success. From the Los Angeles Times’ Bill Plaschke:
"Friedman will also have three of baseball's top prospects in outfielder Joc Pederson, shortstop Corey Seager and pitcher Julio Urias.
Beyond that small group, it seems, no Dodgers player is safe under the direction of an executive who has not been afraid to ship out high-priced stars for valuable prospects. This summer he traded Cy Young Award-winning pitcher David Price to the Detroit Tigers.
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Does that mean that he lets Hanley Ramirez walk in favor of a stopgap at shortstop until Seager is ready? What about Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford? And is Yasiel Puig on the table for the right price?
The answer to all of those questions will shape the future of the franchise for years to come. It’s on Friedman to find a way to get the Dodgers over the proverbial hump.
Do the Red Sox Go Big in Free Agency or Facilitate a Trade to Improve Pitching?
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Yes, the Boston Red Sox need to improve an offense that finished 11th in the American League in runs scored and 14th in slugging this past season. It is what they do to improve the starting rotation, however, that will determine how successful this offseason is.
General manager Ben Cherington has three options.
First, he can invest a lot of money in one of the high-priced free agents like Jon Lester or James Shields. He could also sign a couple of mid-range hurlers such as Brandon McCarthy and Francisco Liriano.
The third route is to trade one of his prized youngsters for a pitcher like Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto. Mookie Betts is one of those players.
Tim Britton from the Providence Journal has some thoughts:
"...the easiest path to acquiring that type of high-end talent would be sacrificing Betts’ future for a win-now present. You can bet opposing general managers will greet any phone call from Ben Cherington with an inquiry about Betts’ potential availability.
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As a cost-controlled 21-year-old with considerable upside and even a brief record of major-league success, he’s as valuable a commodity as there is in the game. Now it’s up to the Red Sox to figure out how best to use him.
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Another thing to keep in mind is that if Cherington trades Betts for a pitcher, he can leverage the savings and sign someone like Pablo Sandoval to play third without mortgaging the franchise.
This offseason will be defined by what path Cherington decides to pursue as he looks to go from last place in the AL East to a postseason appearance the next season—again.
How Does Billy Beane Control His Roster?
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Headlined by names like Jeff Samardzija, Brandon Moss, Josh Donaldson, Jesse Chavez and Josh Reddick, the Oakland A’s have 14 players eligible for arbitration this offseason, per Cots Contacts. They also have seven players who are scheduled to hit free agency.
That makes for a total of 21 players who had varied contributions this past season who may have played their last game for the A’s.
So general manager Billy Beane’s most important choice this offseason comes down to prioritizing where to invest his dollars in advance of another run at the AL West.
True, he leveraged much of the organization’s future with his aggressiveness this season, trading for Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester, among others. But just because the system isn’t as strong as it once was, there are still pieces in place that will form a competitive club—if Beane chooses wisely.
To be sure, he will have to make some additions. Adding some pop to the lineup, for example, is certainly in order. So is shoring up a bullpen that is likely going to lose Luke Gregerson.
Additions aside, the first order of business is making the right decisions as they relate to retention. This offseason will be remembered for what Beane does on the front end.
Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and historical statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.
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