Week 6 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

Bettors can never claim that the NFL over/under lines are not ripe for the picking. 

Just as Las Vegas preys on those bettors who make silly mistakes or bet with fandom in mind, bettors can take advantage of gaffes by the oddsmakers in most areas, but especially in the realm of over/under odds.

For a brief example, look at last week, when the Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots were set at 46. One lopsided 43-17 result later, those who banked on two prolific offenses staying true to form walked away with some cash.

Below is a look at the full lines for Week 6 with some tips for each matchup.

NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	O/U Pick	Pick ATS	Reason
Jacksonville at Tennessee	TEN - 6 (N/A)	N/A	TEN	Tennessee is slowly incorporating all of its talented wideouts, meaning Jacksonville won't keep up.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay	BAL - 3.5 (43.5)	U	TB	At home, Tampa Bay has a developing pass game that will give Baltimore some issues.
Denver at NY Jets	DEN -10 (48)	O	DEN	Peyton Manning or a team with a quarterback controversy. Tough call.
Detroit at Minnesota	DET -3 (43.5)	O	DET	Detroit stops the run well and should have few issues scoring on the Minnesota defense.
New England at Buffalo	NE -3 (45)	U	NE	Tom Brady and Co. are back to effective two-tight end sets and quality play in general.
Carolina at Cincinnati	CIN -7 (43.5)	O	CAR	Carolina remains one of the better teams in the league, whereas Cincinnati is coming off a crushing loss.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	CLE -1 (47)	U	PIT	These two put together a classic a few weeks back, but Ben Roethlisberger can scrape out another win on his own.
Green Bay at Miami	GB - 3.5 (49)	O	GB	Aaron Rodgers will have few issues moving the ball down the field as long as his offensive line holds up.
San Diego at Oakland	SD -7.5 (43.5)	O	SD	See analysis below.
Chicago at Atlanta	ATL -3 (54.5)	U	ATL	Atlanta gets a major home advantage and should be able to torch a hobbled Chicago secondary.
Dallas at Seattle	SEA -9 (46.5)	U	DAL	See analysis below.
Washington at Arizona	ARI -4 (45.5)	U	ARI	Arizona's defense will force more than a few mistakes from Kirk Cousins.
NY Giants at Philadelphia	PHI -3 (50.5)	O	NYG	New York has a prolific offense at the moment and a pass rush that eats most offensive lines alive.
San Francisco at St. Louis (Mon., Oct. 9)	SF -3.5 (44)	O	SF	Austin Davis has played great, but all San Francisco has to do is ride an elite ground game to a telling victory.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 6 p.m. ET, Oct. 10.

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) at Oakland Raiders, Over/Under at 43.5

Remember, all it takes is one team to smash the over/under for bettors to rake in the cash.

This week, that team figures to be San Diego.

Behind the arm of Philip Rivers, last year's Comeback Player of the Year, the Chargers and a top-10 passing attack should have no issues racking up yardage and points against a leaky Oakland defense. Many will point out that the Raiders rank among the league's best in terms of yards allowed, but that is more a product of their opponents to date—New York Jets, Houston Texans, New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins—than anything else.

Rivers on his own rides a hot streak that suggests the Chargers are in for gaudy point totals come Sunday, as a week-by-week breakdown shows:

OPP	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	TD	INT
at ARI	21	36	238	58.3	1	1
vs. SEA	28	37	284	75.7	3	0
at BUF	18	25	256	72.0	2	0
vs. JAX	29	39	377	74.4	3	0
vs. NYJ	20	28	288	71.4	3	1

That Week 2 performance against the defending champs should speak volumes in this conversation, but Rivers will not have to do it on his own. Although the San Diego backfield has been embattled with injuries, Branden Oliver has been a pleasant surprise after rushing for 114 yards and one score last week and now gets a shot at the 31st-ranked rush defense.

Of course, it takes two to tango for bettors looking to get by on the over/under. Oakland is scary in most regards on offense, but remember that interim coach Tony Sparano actually enjoys running the football and is expected to do more of it right away.

Also of note is the return of rookie quarterback Derek Carr from injury, as Steve Corkran of the Bay Area News Group captures:

For those who prefer to digest the historical perspective for good measure, these two have surpassed the current over/under in three of their last four meetings.

Make no mistake, San Diego is the better team top to bottom and will pull out the win. An overage feels just as simple.

Prediction: Chargers 35, Raiders 17

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-9) Over/Under at 46.5

The whole "something has to give" shtick is perhaps no more true than when Dallas makes the trip to Seattle, thanks to an elite rushing offense tasked with running over an elite rush defense on the road. 

NFL on ESPN breaks it down in visual form:

The over/under here sure seems low for a bout between a pair of teams that both average a minimum of 27 points per game. Perhaps the thought process is that Tony Romo and the Cowboys will struggle in a hostile environment. While Seattle is unlike any other host, that logic ignores the fact that the offense has done some of its best work on the road this season, scoring 26 and 34 points away from home. 

Seattle does rank No. 1 against the run, but DeMarco Murray continues to defy expectations against any and all comers, having totaled 670 yards and five touchdowns on a 5.2 per-carry average.

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

On the flip side, Seattle should have no issues scoring on a Dallas defense that is leaky as usual. The NFL's No. 1 rushing attack is, as expected, led by Marshawn Lynch, who has 306 yards and three scores on just 69 attempts. Quarterback Russell Wilson continues to provide a spark in this regard, with 209 yards and a score on a 7.2 per-carry average.

"I don't think running is ever part of the game plan for me really. It just kind of happens," Wilson said, per ESPN.com. "We want to hand the ball off to Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin and those guys. If something is not there I just try to take off and get something positive and keep the drive alive."

That spread seems to be right on the money. Romo and Dez Bryant are sure to do some damage, regardless of where Richard Sherman is at, as will Murray, but the home-field advantage and improvisational skills of Wilson under center—not to mention game-breaking weapons such as Percy Harvin—will see the Seahawks to a 4-1 mark before night's end.

Prediction: Seahawks 33, Cowboys 30

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).