The Tipping Point: Our Understanding of NFL Reality Will Turn on Week 6 Results

Every NFL season is a thriller novel.

There's fast-paced action, tales of incredible feats, good guys, bad guys and countless sub-plots of betrayal, failure, loyalty and redemption. Each new season is a sequel to the one that came before. Like an epic fantasy series with dozens of installments, though, we always have that little bit at the beginning of the book that carries over from the last one.

Right about this time every year, the narratives we remember from the season before are ragged and tattered. All of the record projections and power rankings we read over the summer are full of holes, and reality is about to rip it all apart and write the next chapters while we look on and cheer.

Right now, before the Week 6 games, fans of underachieving teams are pinching themselves, sure it's a bad dream and they'll wake up soon. Fans of overachieving teams are hoping the dream never ends. Fans of teams floating around .500 (and after five weeks, most teams are) still have no idea what to make of it all.

With many of these teams going head-to-head in this week's matchups, we're about to find out a whole lot about what's really happening in the NFL.

Kidding Themselves?

In the NFC East, the most unlikely story might be that of the 4-1 Dallas Cowboys. After another disappointing 8-8 season in 2013, they're off to a winning start.

In Week 6, though, they travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field, where they'll almost certainly lose (because nearly every team does). However, if they somehow escape Seattle with a win, it'll be a major shakeup of the NFL landscape.

The New York Giants are 3-2, and no less surprisingly so. After stumbling out of the gate, quarterback Eli Manning is playing the best football of his career, and the Giants have more than doubled up on their last three opponents combined.

They'll be facing the Philadelphia Eagles, tied with the Cowboys at 4-1—but instead of routing all of their recent opponents, the Eagles have been surviving close shaves with a host of unlikely big plays from all three units of their team. This from a team that was supposed to continue second-year head coach Chip Kelly's turnaround and become a power in the NFC.

Can the Giants extend their newfound dominance to blowing out divisional rivals at home in big games? Or will the Eagles' luck continue to bail them out?

The Cincinnati Bengals have been one of the best teams in the AFC for each of the past few seasons, but quarterback Andy Dalton has repeatedly faltered in big games. After a very hot 3-0 start, the Bengals collapsed in Week 5 on the road against the New England Patriots.

In Week 6, the Bengals host the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have some explaining to do, too. After going 12-4 last season and bowing out early in the playoffs, they're 3-2 and just one game ahead of the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. The Panthers boasted the second-best scoring defense of 2013, but so far in 2014 that unit ranks just 18th, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.

If either of these teams are going to get back to where they were, let alone take the next step toward the Super Bowl, they'll each have to beat the other.

Pinching Themselves

A few NFL teams came into the season thinking they'd be playoff contenders like always, but instead are contending with the uncomfortable reality that they're not playing well.

For Rex Ryan and the New York Jets, operatic levels of drama are always involved. General manager John Idzik added quarterback Mike Vick, tailback Chris Johnson, wide receiver Eric Decker and tight end Jace Amaro to his speed-starved offense, and signal-caller Geno Smith was given every opportunity to show he'd improved. Add in Ryan's always-strong defense, the thinking went, and the Jets should have no problem contending for a playoff berth.

Instead, the Jets are 1-4, all alone in the basement of the AFC East. They're just two games behind both the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills, but the difference between 1-4 and 3-2 feels a lot bigger than "just two games behind."

The Jets play the Denver Broncos in Week 6, and a win would be a massive surprise. At the time of this writing, Oddsshark.com lists the Jets at 10.5-point underdogs. Owner Woody Johnson recently told Dom Cosentino of NJ.com he doesn't "look at" Ryan's job as a playoffs-or-bust situation—but at 1-5, New York will be a long way away from the playoffs.

The New Orleans Saints were many analysts' pick to win the NFC (including yours truly), but as it stands after Week 5, they're just 2-3, and only one game above the cellar-dwelling Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South.

USA TODAY Sports

The high-flying Saints offense isn't quite there. They're currently ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring with an average of 26.4 points per game, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.

The real story, though, has been the defense. After being the fourth-hardest defense to score against in 2013, it has been the fifth-easiest to score on in 2014. After racking up 49 sacks last season, the Saints are now on pace for just 19 this year.

All three of their division rivals play in Week 6 while the Saints have a bye; when they go back to work they face a brutal six-game run. If the Panthers win on Sunday, the Saints will have to pick up two games on them with six winning teams waiting for them on their schedule: the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers, Bengals and Baltimore Ravens—and the Panthers in Carolina.

No Idea What's Going On

The Cleveland Browns have proven they can play with anybody—or at least, fall way behind and miraculously make it close at the end against anybody. One of those teams is the Pittsburgh Steelers, an ostensibly more talented team that needed every second on the clock to beat the Browns back in Week 1.

Is quarterback Brian Hoyer secretly the most clutch fourth-quarter quarterback on Earth? Or are teams merely putting it in the cooler against the Browns and trying to flip it back on far too late? Can the Browns offense and defensive secondary put up a good first half so they don't have to make up the whole game in the closing minutes?

The Steelers have been schizophrenic, handling the Panthers with aplomb one week and losing to the lowly Buccaneers the next. At 3-2, they're just a half-game behind the 3-1 Bengals for the AFC North division lead—but they're just a game ahead of the Browns, bringing up the rear at 2-2. If they win, they could be all alone in first place. If they lose, they'll be all alone in last.

Two other teams trying to figure out exactly where they stand will face off in Atlanta, where the Chicago Bears will take on the Falcons. Both teams have the talent to score points when they want to: The Bears hung 28 on the 49ers while winning in San Francisco, and the Falcons rocked the Buccaneers 56-14 in Week 3.

Yet both teams' defenses are in the bottom third of the NFL in points allowed, and both teams are sitting at a disappointing 2-3.

It's plausible both teams are in the toughest stretch of a nine- or 10-win campaign in their closely fought divisions. However, it's also plausible these teams are going to lose a lot of close games en route to a six- or seven-win season.

Beating the Falcons on the road would put the Bears right back in the mix for the NFC North title; losing may put them two games behind the Lions and Packers (both three-point road favorites, per Oddsshark.com). Depending on the rest of the division, the Falcons could be tied with the Panthers for first place, or tied with the Buccaneers for last.

The Tipping Point

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

The results of this weekend are going to reset the storylines for the rest of the season. We'll have a far better idea of where every team stands, how every division stacks up and what the stretch run to the playoffs will look like.

Fans will start flexing their muscles, and television networks will start flexing their schedules, as we learn whether teams like the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals are heading back to the playoffs after missing out last season.

Other fans will get their paper bags out and start poring over the work of Bleacher Report's NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller. Fans of teams like the Kansas City Chiefs are hoping they're not in that group.

No matter what happens this weekend for any of the NFL's teams, our collective suspension of disbelief will be shattered. Win, lose or draw we'll be left to deal with the NFL's new reality.