Fantasy Football Week 6: Examining Bust Candidates to Avoid This Weekend

A bust can end an owner's week of fantasy football before kickoff.

Pop open those lineups for a second—that right there is a mine field littered with potential busts, a riddle that can only be solved through hours of homework.

Look at last week, when LeSean McCoy was outscored by Juwan Thompson, De'Anthony Thomas and 27 others at the running back position. A list such as what lies below would have suggested tempered expectations—the St. Louis Rams rank in the top 10 against backs, after all.

Like last week, let's take the leg work out of the equation. Below are a number of players who appear headed down bust street for the time being.

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (at MIN)

The upside with Matthew Stafford is top-five production. The downside, though, is the three points he scored in Week 3, or the 11 points last week against Buffalo while he was sacked a career-high six times.

Stafford's fantasy value is directly tied to the health of wideout Calvin Johnson. This week, things are not looking so hot, as Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press illustrates:

But hey, let's give some credit to the opposition this week, too. Minnesota is a strong defensive club, at least against quarterbacks. The team ranks in the top 10 this season against quarterbacks, allowing an average of just 13.8 points per game.

With Megatron hobbled as a decoy or outright missing from the lineup, Stafford is in for a rough day on the road.

Running back

Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos (at NYJ)

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

In the wake of an injury to starter Montee Ball, Denver Broncos running back Ronnie Hillman has been one of the hottest commodities in the land of fantasy football this week.

One problem—he is a top bust candidate.

Hillman inspired owners last week with 15 carries for 64 yards, good for a cool six points.

Based on some homework by ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold, though, Hillman will only see "50 to 55 percent or so of the carries to go with 55 to 60 percent of the snaps."

Touches equal production at running back, so those are less-than-ideal numbers for owners in all leagues, especially once we add in the fact that Hillman is tasked with overcoming a New York Jets defense that surrenders the sixth-fewest points to backs on average.

New England Patriots Running Backs (at BUF)

Steven Senne/Associated Press

It was all fun and games for Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley last week on Sunday Night Football during a dismantling of the usually stout Cincinnati defense.

The fun is over.

Vereen racked up 90 yards on nine carries for 10 points, while Ridley found his way for 113 yards and a score on 27 totes for 17 points. But not all defenses will fold like Cincinnati did.

That is especially the case for the Buffalo Bills, a team that ranks No. 2 overall against backs this year and has yet to allow a player at the position to find the end zone. Chicago's Matt Forte had 82 yards. Houston's Arian Foster? Eight carries for six yards. Detroit's Reggie Bush? Six carries for 13 yards.

Vereen and Ridley have two games apiece in which they scored in the double digits. One came last week in a fluky affair. There will be little room to operate against Buffalo.

Wide Receiver

Pierre Garcon, Washington (at ARI)

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Few players have been as disappointing as Pierre Garcon this season.

Just look at his list of iffy numbers one season removed from leading the league in targets:

WK	OPP	REC	YDS	TD	PTS
1	@Hou	10	77	0	7
2	Jac	1	12	0	1
3	@Phi	11	138	1	19
4	NYG	2	28	0	2
5	Sea	2	23	0	2

Garcon is a bit of an outlier on this list because he next encounters an Arizona team that surrenders the second-most points to wideouts this season. Nice, right? There are a few issues to point out, though.

For one, matchups against the potent offenses of San Diego, the New York Giants and Denver tend to inflate those sorts of numbers. Two, Garcon's quarterback, Kirk Cousins, has imploded over the course of the past two weeks, completing less than 59 percent of his passes in each contest and throwing four total interceptions.

There are things to like about Garcon this week, but the bad certainly outweighs the good.

Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers (at CIN)

MIKE MCCARN/Associated Press

While Carolina Panthers rookie wideout Kelvin Benjamin has been one of the biggest surprises of the season after a bevy of drop issues at Florida State, he remains a risky start as a boom-or-bust player.

Against a Cincinnati defense that ranks in the top 10 against the position, Benjamin is a surefire bust. Not only is it a road contest, but that aforementioned loss to New England still saw the Bengals defense surrender only six points to Patriots receivers.

Keep in mind that while Benjamin does have explosions for 15, 17 and 13 points, he also has outputs of 4 and 1 this season. In an effort to keep the Cincinnati offense off the field, it is hard to see the Panthers throwing a lot in the first place, anyway.

Tight End

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NYG)

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

For just a moment, those who predicted before the season that Zach Ertz was a fantasy breakout candidate in Chip Kelly's offense looked like prophets—he exploded for 13 points in Week 1 against Jacksonville.

In four games since, Ertz has scored a total of 14 points.

Considering he is still owned in almost 50 percent of leagues, owners still think Ertz has some value. As Paul Domowitch of Philly.com suggests, though, there are areas that hold Ertz back from more playing time:

To expect anything from Ertz against a New York Giants defense that ranks No. 2 overall against tight ends with an average of just 3.8 points surrendered per game is the same as a forfeit at the position. Better options exist, alarming upside as a receiver aside.

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats. Statistics courtesy of ESPN. Kansas City, New Orleans on bye.