Week 6 NFL Picks: Predictions on Vegas' Mid-Week Betting Odds and Lines

Week 6 of the NFL season is loaded with a number of games that can potentially come down to the final minutes.

There is no better indication of that than the fact that eight of the 12 listed point spreads on Odds Shark (as of Tuesday afternoon) were three points or less. That is what happens when some of the presumed best teams of the league play each other or when the assumed favorite goes on the road for a particular game.

There just isn’t a lot of obvious separation in many of these contests.

With that in mind, here is a look at some predictions based on Las Vegas’ mid-week betting lines, according to Odds Shark as of Tuesday, before we delve into a couple of the closer calls.

Matchup	Point Spread	Prediction (Against Spread)
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans	IND -2.5	Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans	Unlisted	Predicting a Jaguars win
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	BAL -3	Ravens
Denver Broncos at New York Jets	DEN -10	Broncos
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings	Unlisted	Predicting a Vikings win
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills	NE -3	Bills
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -8.5	Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns	CLE -1	Browns
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins	GB -3	Packers
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons	ATL -3	Falcons
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders	SD -8	Chargers
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks	SEA -9.5	Seahawks
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals	Unlisted	Predicting a Cardinals win
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -2.5	Eagles
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams	SF -3	49ers

Close Calls

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) over Houston Texans

This is a Thursday night battle (much to Arian Foster’s chagrin) between two 3-2 teams in the AFC South. With Jacksonville and Tennessee reeling, the head-to-head winner in these games has a real advantage in the division moving forward.

The Indianapolis Colts are the better team, but the fact that the game is in Houston causes some hesitation with the prediction. In fact, the home team is 4-1 on Thursday nights this year and has found the formula to take advantage of the short rest.

However, the Colts have beaten the Texans three straight times, and Indianapolis has also won nine consecutive games on Thursday nights.

Houston offensive tackle Duane Brown understands what is at stake, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com):

"

It's a huge game for us.

The good thing about the Colts is that we're very familiar with them. Of course you have a different game plan than we've had in years past, but as far as the personnel and things like that we kind of know what to expect. So that makes it a little bit easier, but it's never easy.

"

The pick here is Indianapolis, and not just because it has Andrew Luck directing the offense. The Colts defense has played much better during its three-game winning streak than it did at the start of the year, and actually has 11 sacks and nine forced turnovers during that span.

Ryan Fitzpatrick may have trouble finding many openings against the rejuvenated Colts defense, which could force Houston to be too one-dimensional.

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Of course, Luck weighs in on this prediction too, considering he leads the NFL with 1,617 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. If he can buy himself time with his mobility in the pocket against J.J. Watt and company, he can take advantage of a Texans secondary that ranks 21st in the league against the pass. That means T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne could both have big days.

The Colts will continue their historical dominance over Houston (Indianapolis holds a 20-4 all-time advantage in the series) in this one, but it will be tight for the road team. 

Prediction: Colts 24, Texans 17

Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Yes, betting on the Seattle Seahawks at home is about the surest thing in all of sports, and there is no doubt here that the Seahawks are going to win, but 9.5 points is a lot to give up to a Dallas Cowboys team that is rolling right now at 4-1.

Besides, it’s not like the Cowboys don’t have experience on the road this year—after all, every time they lace it up at home it is like a road environment anyway.

Seattle is 2-0 at home with a dominating victory to start the season over the Green Bay Packers and a thrilling overtime win against the Denver Broncos. The Cowboys are 2-0 on the road with wins over the Tennessee Titans and St. Louis Rams.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

The primary reason you cannot overlook the Cowboys in this one is the fact that they are No. 2 in the entire NFL in rushing yards per game. The offensive line is dominating, and DeMarco Murray has run like a man possessed this season.

The entire Dallas offense has benefited because opponents have stacked the box, which lets Dez Bryant get open downfield for game-changing passes.

However, Seattle is built to stop the run and is only giving up a league-best 62.3 yards a game on the ground. The Seahawks held Eddie Lacy, who is a big, physical back like Murray, to 34 yards on 12 carries and will look to do the same Sunday.

Murray, on the other hand, will try to continue his historically excellent start, as SportsCenter, NFL on ESPN and ESPN’s Adam Schefter all pointed out:

The reason we are leaning toward the Seahawks even with the large point spread is the realization that they are one of the few teams in the NFL that is strong enough in the secondary to leave the corners and safeties on an island and still stack the box against the run. The “Legion of Boom” will earn its nickname Sunday as the rest of the defense looks to contain Murray.

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Plus, Seattle is the only team in the NFL averaging more yards per game on the ground than Dallas, and they're going up against the Cowboys' 20th-ranked run defense. The Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson combination will control the clock and keep Murray off the field. 

Seattle will gradually pull away in the second half on Sunday.

Prediction: Seahawks 31, Cowboys 20

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