Tomorrow's All-Stars: Predicting the 10 Best Relief Pitchers in 5 Years
Bullpens make all the difference in October.
That's why the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers are sitting at home and one of the main reasons why the Kansas City Royals are still rolling along.
That takes us to the next stop in this five-part series known as "Tomorrow's All-Stars." This week, the series combs through the minor leagues to find the pitchers who will be the most dominant relievers in five years' time.
Some of the pitchers who crack the top 10 are still starters in the minors and could just land in the rotation at the big league level. However, if they are sent to the bullpen, they'll be downright electric.
A Quick Look Back
1 of 13
Back in the spring, Part 1 of the series dug through the minor leagues to find the most promising catchers and infielders of the future:
Last week, in Part II, the series started up by taking a look at the aces of the future:
A Word on the Criteria
2 of 13The idea behind this series is to focus on the prospects.
That means you won't see Craig Kimbrel or Dellin Betances on this list, as both have already established themselves as All-Stars. You won't find any pitchers on this list who have already made their major league debuts, as they've been excluded from consideration.
Of course, relievers like Kimbrel and Betances will likely still be excelling in five years' time. So, here's a rundown of some of baseball's top bullpen arms who would have made the grade if they had met the criteria.
- Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
- Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
- Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
- Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
- Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Honorable Mentions
3 of 13Before we get started with the top 10, here are some of the pitchers who just missed the cut:
- Derek Law, RHP, San Francisco Giants (featured in video above)
- Bobby Wahl, RHP, Oakland Athletics
- Andrew Mitchell, RHP, Chicago White Sox
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10. Chris Oliver, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
4 of 13Age: 21
Highest Minor League Level: Class-A Short Season
2014 Stats: 0-2, 8.66 ERA, 9 G, 3 GS, 17.2 IP, 25 H, 23 BB, 10 K
The Track Record
After the Philadelphia Phillies selected him in the fourth round of the 2014 draft, Chris Oliver split his first summer as a professional pitching as both a starter and a reliever. Based on the early results, the bullpen appears to be where Oliver's future lies.
In his first professional action, Oliver had considerable issues with his command, issuing 23 walks in 17.2 innings of work. However, the right-hander does have the stuff that will allow him to overwhelm hitters late in the game. According to Eric Bacharach of MLB.com, Oliver is capable of throwing his fastball in the mid-90s.
When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues
Oliver still has lots of climbing to do. The 21-year-old is likely to begin the 2015 season with Philadelphia's Low-A affiliate. If the Phillies have Oliver focus exclusively on working in relief, he could reach the high minors by the end of 2016 and the big leagues by the end of 2017.
9. Jimmie Sherfy, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
5 of 13Age: 22
Highest Minor League Level: Double-A
2014 Stats: 5-1, 4.59 ERA, 48 G, 7 SV, 49 IP, 40 H, 23 BB, 68 K
The Track Record
The Arizona Diamondbacks selected Jimmie Sherfy in the 10th round of the 2013 MLB draft out of the University of Oregon. The right-handed reliever is cruising through Arizona's system, as the 22-year-old ended his first full season as a professional pitching in Double-A.
The biggest problem spot for the right-hander is his less-than-precise command. Sherfy issued 23 free passes in 49 frames, while splitting the 2014 season between High-A and Double-A. As is the case with nearly every other pitcher on this list, Sherfy has demonstrated a knack for producing swings-and-misses. In 2014, the righty posted 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings.
When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues
After putting up a 4.97 ERA in 37 Double-A appearances, Sherfy is likely to return to the Southern League for the start of 2015. A strong first half of the season in the upper minors could result in Sherfy factoring into the D-Backs' bullpen equation after the the 2015 All-Star break.
8. Zech Lemond, RHP, San Diego Padres
6 of 13Age: 21
Highest Minor League Level: Double-A
2014 Stats: 2-3, 3.43 ERA, 12 G, 8 GS, 42 IP, 40 H, 5 BB, 36 K
The Track Record
Zech Lemond knows all about pitching in high-leverage situations.
The right-hander, who the San Diego Pardes added with their third-round pick in the 2014 draft out of Rice University, set a school record with 14 saves in his final season. According to Jim Callis of MLB.com, Lemond can hit 96 mph on the radar gun and has an impressive curveball.
Lemond began his first year as a professional in Class-A Short Season, but that's not where he ended it. The Padres sent the righty to Double-A at the end of August, and Lemond had no trouble responding to the challenge. In his only appearance in the Texas League, Lemond worked four scoreless innings of relief, allowing just a single hit.
When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues
Considering that the Padres pushed Lemond to Double-A just months after he was drafted, he's definitely on the fast track. Lemond could make an impact out the big league bullpen as early as next summer. Of course, if the Padres decide to use him as a starter in the minors, then his timeline will be much slower.
7. Michael Cederoth, RHP, Minnesota Twins
7 of 13Age: 21
Highest Minor League Level: Rookie ball
2014 Stats: 4-2, 3.56 ERA, 11 G, 10 GS, 45.2 IP, 41 H, 18 BB, 42 K
The Track Record
A closer at San Diego State University, Michael Cederoth worked as a starter in his first go-around in the minor leagues. The Minnesota Twins selected Cederoth in the third round last June, and the right-hander posted a respectable 3.55 ERA in Rookie League over the summer.
While he's in the rotation for now, Cederoth would be devastatingly effective working out of the bullpen. The 21-year-old stands 6'6" and can crack 100 mph during brief outings, per MLB.com.
When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues
Just how quickly Cederoth arrives at Target Field will be determined by whether the Twins keep him in the rotation or eventually shift him to relief. Considering that he's likely to start next season in Low-A, Cederoth probably won't reach the major leagues until 2017. Of course, a move to the bullpen full-time would accelerate his rise.
6. Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco Giants
8 of 13Age: 21
Highest Minor League Level: Rookie ball
2014 Stats: 6-7, 3.79 ERA, 23 G, 22 GS, 90.1 IP, 78 H, 61 BB, 111 K
The Track Record
Like so many others on this list, Kyle Crick has all sorts of talent but doesn't always know where his pitches are going to end up.
That was definitely the case in 2014, when the 21-year-old dished out 61 free passes in 90.1 innings of work. Crick spent the past season pitching in the rotation for the San Francisco Giants Double-A club, but it's difficult to see starting in his major league future.
With big strikeout numbers in the minors and the ability to throw gas, Crick has the potential to be a lights-out reliever at AT&T Park.
When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues
Crick is on track to begin the 2015 season with San Francisco's Triple-A affiliate. If the Giants decide to send him to the bullpen, Crick could help the big league squad as soon as next summer.
5. Nick Howard, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
9 of 13Age: 21
Highest Minor League Level: Low-A
2014 Stats: 2-1, 3.74 ERA, 11 G, 5 GS, 33.2 IP, 28 H, 11 BB, 23 K
The Track Record
Nick Howard has quite the resume when it comes to getting outs in the late innings.
In 2014, the right-hander set an ACC and University of Virginia record with 20 saves, according to Mark Giannotto of The Washington Post. As Giannotto explains, Howard went from throwing 95 mph to 98 during his final season in college.
After the Cincinnati Reds selected Giannotto with the No. 19 pick in June, the team sent the pitcher to Low-A, where he posted a 3.74 ERA in 11 outings, including five starts.
When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues
If the Reds want to use Howard strictly as a reliever, there's a chance he could rise all the way to the big leagues by September of 2015. However, since he has so much talent, he'll get the chance to pitch in the minor leagues as a starter first.
4. Nick Burdi, RHP, Minnesota Twins
10 of 13Age: 21
Highest Minor League Level: Low-A
2014 Stats: 2-0, 2,66 ERA, 20 G, 5 SV, 20.1 IP, 13 H, 10 BB, 38 K
The Track Record
Nick Burdi had a point to prove after he fell into the second round of the 2014 draft.
"They're getting one of the most determined people in the whole draft," Burdi told Jeff Greer of The Courier-Journal. As Greer explains, the University of Lousiville closer had expected to go in the opening round, but Burdi had to wait until the Minnesota Twins selected him at No. 46 instead.
The 21-year-old had a ton of success in his first minor league action. Burdi was 5-for-5 in save opportunities and posted an unreal 16.8 K/9 ratio while splitting the summer between Low-A and High-A.
When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues
Burdi should start the 2015 season in Double-A, and it's not out of the question to think that the right-hander could earn a September call-up to end the year.
3. Jacob Lindgren, LHP, New York Yankees
11 of 13Age: 21
Highest Minor League Level: Double-A
2014 Stats: 2-1, 2.16 ERA, 19 G, 25 IP, 12 H, 13 BB, 48 K
The Track Record
Jacob Lindgren is known as "The Strikeout Factory," according to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. That's a well-deserved nickname considering the kind of numbers the left-hander put up after the New York Yankees selected him in the second round of the June draft.
While rising from rookie ball to Double-A, Lindgren racked up 48 punchouts in 25 innings of work. The lefty also limited the opposition to a .135 batting average.
When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues
The way he's flown through New York's farm system, it wouldn't be shocking if Lindgren won a spot in the bullpen for Opening Day 2015.
2. Tyler Beede, RHP, San Francisco Giants
12 of 13Age: 21
Highest Minor League Level: Class-A Short Season
2014 Stats: 0-1, 2.93 ERA, 6 GS, 15.1 IP, 16 H, 7 BB, 18 K
The Track Record
The San Francisco Giants have big plans for Tyler Beede.
The club landed the right-hander with the No. 14 overall pick in the 2014 draft and handed him a $2.6 million signing bonus, per MLB.com. While Beede started his professional career in the rotation, that's not necessarily where he'll end up in the big leagues.
"If the command doesn't improve dramatically, he's a reliever at the next level," explained Keith Law of ESPN (Subscription required).
Beede has plenty of time to prove that type of prediction wrong. Then again, a career as a high-leverage reliever wouldn't be the worst outcome either.
When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues
Considering that the Giants invested a first-round pick on Beede, he'll get his shot at sticking in the rotation. That means the righty won't arrive in the big leagues until the end of the 2016 season at the earliest.
1. Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
13 of 13Age: 18
Highest Minor League Level: Rookie ball
2014 Stats: 0-2, 7.13 ERA, 9 G, 4 GS, 17.2 IP, 24 H, 13 BB, 26 K
The Track Record
The Milwaukee Brewers snapped up Kodi Medeiros with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2014 draft. Upon signing, the left-hander was immediately sent to the Arizona Rookie League for his first minor league assignment. In the desert, Medeiros didn't have much success locating his pitches, as he allowed 13 walks in 17.2 innings.
In addition to his issues with command, the lefty's low arm slot has also led to rumbling that he could be destined for a relief role, as Andrew Gruman of Fox Sports Wisconsin notes. Even Medeiros knows that the bullpen could be in his future, as he remarked via Gruman.
"Some scouts say they like my style, they think I'm a starter, and some people think I'm better off as a reliever."
Medeiros' performance will ultimately answer that debate, but the safe bet is that the Hawaiian ends up as a highly valuable late-inning reliever.
When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues
Like Tyler Beede, Medeiros is a top pick who will get plenty of chances to prove he can start in the minor leagues. Since the Brewers drafted him out of high school, Medeiros will likely need three full seasons in the minors.
Note: All stats courtesy of MLB.com. All videos courtesy of MLB.com and YouTube.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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