Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners: Betting Odds, Analysis and Prediction

The Texas Longhorns pulled off a big upset in last year’s Red River Rivalry game and will look to do the same thing Saturday when they meet the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The Longhorns beat the Sooners 36-20 as 13.5-point underdogs in 2013 and will face a similar spread this time around.

Point spread: The Sooners opened as 14.5-point favorites at the Cotton Bowl, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 40.2-25.9 Sooners

Why the Texas Longhorns can cover the spread

Texas did it last season and will face a similar challenge this year as a double-digit dog. The Longhorns will get an Oklahoma team in a potential letdown spot after the Sooners lost at TCU last week.

With the Sooners no longer unbeaten, they may not be as motivated to win big and impress the pollsters to stay in consideration for one of the four playoff berths at the end of the season.

Last year, Texas ran the ball all over Oklahoma with 255 rushing yards on 60 carries. The Longhorns also got interception and punt return touchdowns, so it will likely take that kind of effort on both defense and special teams to knock off the Sooners for the second season in a row.

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

While Oklahoma could possibly be suffering from a letdown following last week’s loss, that setback could also work to the team’s advantage here as the Sooners simply cannot afford to overlook Texas right now. Another upset loss would most likely end any chance Oklahoma has of making it into the four-team playoff field, and an impressive win can only help the team’s case.

The Sooners will have a different quarterback under center in Trevor Knight, as last year’s starter Blake Bell is now lining up at tight end. Bell was terrible in last year’s game, completing 12 of 26 passes for 133 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown.

Smart Pick

The Longhorns have been awful this season, much worse than last year’s edition. They could only muster one touchdown in a 28-7 home loss to Baylor last week and will be hard-pressed to score much more than that against an angry Oklahoma team.

The Sooners are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last four meetings with Texas and 7-2 versus the line in their past nine overall, so they are in much better form regardless of last week’s loss.

The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and have struggled to move the ball with sophomore quarterback Tyrone Swoopes. Look for those struggles to continue against Oklahoma here in a big win for the Sooners.

Trends

• The total has gone under in four of Texas' last five games on the road.
• Oklahoma is 5-0 straight up in its last five games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.