Roy Halladay: Is He Worth the Price of Aquisition?

For a moment, his name has finally eclipsed Brett Favre's in references from the media. This, of course, may change should Favre make another comeback in the next week.

But in the baseball world, one name looms larger than the rest as the 2009 non-waiver trading deadline begins to loom large.

That name is Roy Halladay.

Any baseball fan who knows anything about the game has heard of Halladay—one of the most dominant and, so far as we know, clean players of his era. Halladay toils every fifth day for the Toronto Blue Jays, who would likely be playoff contenders in any other division.

The Blue Jays, however, are currently entertaining offers for their ace, who they cannot hope to retain after next season when he finally hits free agency. They are asking for a great deal in return, which has eliminated all but a few clubs from the running.

The question, however, is whether or not Halladay is worth the price placed on him by Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi.

After looking at Halladay's career numbers (142-69 with a 3.46 ERA, 12 shutouts, 1,400 strikeouts in 12 seasons), its hard to imagine him not being worth a top prospect or two.

This year, Halladay is 11-3 with a 2.73 ERA, one shutout, and 113 strikeouts in 18 games. Those also are excellent numbers.

But could appearances be deceiving?

Halladay has been remarkably durable, but he finally made a trip to the disabled list this season. He's now as old (32) as his jersey number as well.

Something else to consider: He's pitched almost 2,000 innings in those 12 seasons. 

Eventually, every pitcher's arm goes dead. Will Halladay's?

All of those things are relatively moot compared to the economics of trading for a guy like Halladay.

Halladay's current deal is a four-year, $40 million deal signed in 2006. The deal has a value over $14 million per season and runs out after next season, when he will earn $15.75 million.

Therefore, any team that engineers a trade for the pitcher affectionately known as "Doc" will have one immediate concern: Signing him long-term.

The Blue Jays, who don't really seem to have their hearts in trading their staff ace, handicapped any potential trade partner by forbidding them from negotiating an extension with Halladay before a trade is consummated.

That means that whoever makes the move will be running the risk that Halladay will be nothing more than a year and a half rental. 

It's no wonder why all but two or three teams have been eliminated from the sweepstakes.

Another major risk is the haul that Toronto is demanding in return. From all accounts, the Blue Jays are looking for at least two top prospects, and names such as Phillies stud Kyle Drabek have been mentioned.

Anyone who remembers what happened to Montreal when they traded for Bartolo Colon knows how dangerous it is to send away top-level talent for a proven starter.

Any package for Halladay would have to be similar to—if not exceed by—the package Montreal put together for Colon (Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Lee Stevens).

Ask Omar Minaya if he'd make that deal now.

If Philadelphia, now considered the front runner for Halladay's services, and General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. make that kind of deal, will they look back in seven years and regret it?

To be fair, Halladay is probably much more likely to succeed in Philadelphia than Colon was in Montreal.  

But is it worth the risk to move heaven and earth to get him?

In my humble estimation, if there was more of a guarantee that the team would be able to retain Halladay for many seasons it would be worth it.

If Philadelphia or another team can convince Toronto to negotiate an extension before making a trade (perhaps by agreeing on a package contingent on him signing a long term pact), then I would say the deal is worth it.

Halladay probably has the best chance of reaching 300 wins of any active pitcher. He also has a great set of career statistics and health records. 

If no one can convince Toronto to let negotiate with Halladay before a trade is completed, then I don't believe I would be willing to risk the farm system for a year and a half of any player.

This story line has, and will, obviously be the most interesting as we near the trading deadline. 

My personal feeling is that Halladay won't be dealt under the current conditions set by J.P. Ricciardi. 

But if something changes to make it easier, I think it is without question that someone will step in and get an ace.