Week 6 NFL Picks: Latest Betting Odds, Vegas Spreads and Projections

The NFL has turned into the best reality show on television. It's no longer about domination by any individual team but surviving and advancing to the next week. If there's a theme for the top games of Week 6, it's proving that what we've seen thus far is for real. 

Great teams are able to find ways to win when they don't play their best. Look at the way Seattle played in Washington on Monday night. Russell Wilson was brilliant, but no one else would say it was the greatest game the Seahawks have played. Yet they did enough to win and keep pace in the NFC West. 

As we start taking an early look ahead to Week 6, it's go time. The first month of the season is over, so we have seen some separation between the top and bottom of the league. Now, it's time to put distance between the great teams and the good ones. 

Matchup	Pick
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Houston Texans	Colts, 24-17
New England Patriots (-3) at Buffalo Bills	Patriots, 27-23
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)	Bengals, 26-21
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1)	Browns, 28-24
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Miami Dolphins	Packers, 31-20
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (NL)	Lions, 23-21
Denver Broncos (-9.5) at New York Jets	Broncos, 35-17
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Ravens, 27-24
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (NL)	Titans, 28-20
San Diego Chargers (-8) at Oakland Raiders	Chargers, 27-10
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)	Falcons, 34-31
Washington at Arizona Cardinals (NL)	Cardinals, 26-24
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (NL)	Seahawks, 30-23
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)	Giants, 28-24
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at St. Louis Rams	49ers, 23-16

Key Games

New England Patriots (-3) at Buffalo Bills

Stephan Savoia/Associated Press

Raise your hand if you had the Patriots and Bills fighting to be atop the AFC East standings after five weeks? New England is used to being in this position, but the way it's gotten here has left a lot of viewers numb. 

The Patriots are hard to figure out. They put up 43 points against Cincinnati one week after giving up 41 to Kansas City and two weeks after scoring 16 against Oakland. That win over the Bengals was more than just another game, as Rob Gronkowski said afterward, via NFL Network's Albert Breer:

New England's test isn't to win one game but to start stringing together victories. A good way to follow up an impressive win is to beat a Buffalo team that's struggling on offense. Kyle Orton took over at quarterback last week against Detroit, throwing for 308 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

The key for the Patriots will be to contain Sammy Watkins, who had seven catches on a career-high 12 targets last week, and holding the Bills' struggling rushing attack (20th in the NFL) at bay. Bill Belichick's defense ranks third against the pass, so Orton will have his hands full.

Brady isn't going to throw for 292 yards and two touchdowns every week at this stage of his career with limited weapons, but if he's using Rob Gronkowski and Tim Wright more often, this offense will be crisper than it was in September.

Patriots 27, Bills 23

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (NL)

Jeff Gross/Getty Images

When was the last time the Dallas Cowboys were thought of as a physical team? It's been a drastic transformation for this team, but the Cowboys are winning with a power running game and beating up their opponents. 

Unfortunately, they are tasked with going to the toughest road environment in the NFL against a Seattle team that looks more dynamic on offense thanks to the development of Wilson and a healthy Percy Harvin. 

Also, despite their 4-1 record, the Cowboys haven't completely escaped their past. The defense is much better than it was last year, but Dallas is still allowing 369.8 yards and 20.6 points per game. The four wins have come against Tennessee, St. Louis, New Orleans and Houston. 

You can only beat the teams on your schedule, but three of those four teams missed the playoffs last year, and the Saints defense this year looks the way Dallas' defense did last year. 

DeMarco Murray is the great equalizer because a running game can hide a lot of flaws, as it allows a team to control the clock and opens up play-action passes. The problem with that is the Seahawks have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (62.3). 

Unless the Cowboys are able to break through that Seattle wall up front, they are going to need Tony Romo to win the game.  

For the Seahawks, Wilson is proving to be more dangerous with his legs than ever. Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk pointed out how well the Seattle quarterback was running against Washington on Monday night:

How do you stop a guy who is running all over defenses like Wilson did against Washington and in overtime against Denver two weeks ago? When you add in that he's also completing 70 percent of his passes, opponents have no chance right now. 

The Cowboys will put up a good fight, but the Seahawks are the best team in football. 

Seahawks 30, Cowboys 23

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Even though the Eagles enter this NFC East showdown with a 4-1 record, doesn't it seem like they are fighting an uphill battle? They are playing a bend-don't-break style that is working for now but can lead to problems as the season goes on. 

Chip Kelly can do a lot of great things with an offense, but it's hard to go anywhere with a defense that is giving up 406.2 yards and 26.4 points per game. Closing games is the problem, as St. Louis showed by climbing back from a 27-7 deficit in the third quarter with a chance to win on the final drive. 

Philadelphia's offensive line hasn't been right all season, but does that entirely explain LeSean McCoy's struggles?

Darren Sproles plays behind that same line and is averaging 6.9 yards per carry, so there's a lot more going on than we know. 

On the other side, the Giants suddenly look like the team that won two Super Bowls instead of the one that started this year 0-2 and committed six turnovers. Eli Manning's comfort level in this new offense continues to grow. He has completed 66.3 percent of his passes this year, which would easily be the best mark of his career. 

New York's offense got an added boost against Atlanta last week with the debut of Odell Beckham Jr., who caught the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Week 5 win.

Before we declare the Giants all the way back, let's remember their hot streak has come against Washington and Atlanta. The Eagles defense isn't any better than those teams, so expect the good times to continue in New York. It's just telling us more about the opposition than the Giants. 

Giants 28, Eagles 24

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@adamwells1985