NFL Draft 2015: Updated Prospect Radar, Post-Week 5
It seems to often be the case that the least hyped weekends of college football end up being the most exciting, while the Saturdays full of highly touted matchups end up falling short of expectation. This past weekend was special: it didn’t only live up to its massive hype, it exceeded it.
Over the course of a weekend in which five of the teams that had been ranked in the top eight in the national polls lost games, there were many marquee prospects on display. Some, like Arizona State wide receiver Jaelen Strong, led their teams to key victories. Others, like Stanford wide receiver Ty Montgomery, struggled as their teams fell in defeat.
Nearing the midpoint of college football’s regular season, it’s become significantly clearer which draft-eligible prospects are in line to be early-round picks. While there have been some players having breakout years, there are others who simply haven’t lived up to expectations.
It’s not necessarily as clear for all of the following players. Some of them have raised their profile in previous weeks and struggled this past weekend, or vice versa. But all of these players had games during the sixth week of the college football season that scouts will be going back to take a closer look at.
Stock Up: Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State, Jr.
1 of 13
This Week: 10 receptions for 202 yards, three touchdowns
Opponent: USC
As time expired in Arizona State’s game Saturday night against USC, Jaelen Strong made college football’s biggest play of the weekend when he caught a 46-yard, Hail Mary touchdown pass in the end zone that put the Sun Devils ahead for a 38-34 victory.
Strong played the desperation deep ball perfectly. He tracked it cleanly, went up and made a clean catch in his hands while going across the goal line, making it look easy.
Although a number of USC defenders stayed grounded in the end zone and made no good effort to keep the ball away from Strong, the 6’3”, 214-pound wideout deserves a great deal of credit for his game-winning play. He doesn’t lead this only because of that catch, however, but because of his complete performance in which he accumulated a career-high 202 receiving yards.
Strong displayed long speed and big-play ability in the second quarter when he outran two defensive backs for a 77-yard catch-and-run touchdown. He consistently ran good routes that enabled him to make a number of key catches against coverage on third-down plays.
Entrenched in a tight battle with USC junior cornerback Kevon Seymour for most of the game, Strong was not always able to separate and get open. That said, he showed that he could utilize his size and strong hands to make a number of catches on plays even when Seymour was still on top of him in coverage.
Strong has limited open-field agility and isn’t likely to wow anyone with his numbers in predraft workouts, but he is a big, well-rounded target who can make plays both outside and inside. A junior college transfer, Strong has already accumulated 116 receptions for 1,736 yards and 12 touchdowns in 19 games at Arizona State.
Current Draft Projection: Round 2
Stock Up: Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn, Jr.
2 of 13
This Week: Four receptions for 144 yards, one touchdown
Opponent: LSU
Projected by some draft analysts to be the top wide receiver in the 2015 draft class, Sammie Coates’ stock went down early this season for Auburn as he was essentially a nonfactor in the Tigers’ first four games, catching just five passes for 56 yards.
That said, it had been reported that Coates was battling a knee injury, which might have played a part in his disappointing start. Either way, Coates emphatically demonstrated that he was back to his old self Saturday against LSU, as he displayed his big-play ability with a number of deep receptions in Auburn’s win.
Coates’ first reception of the game was his highlight of the night. In between two defensive backs, Coates made a clean catch approximately 45 yards downfield then pushed through contact to finish with a 56-yard touchdown on a play that showed how his combination of size and downfield speed can make him a huge weapon on long balls.
The wideout’s second grab of the game was a 38-yard deep ball against tight coverage on a trick-play throw from Auburn backup quarterback Jeremy Johnson, while both of Coates’ latter two receptions, which each went for at least 21 yards, included Coates running through two missed tackles after the catch.
At 6’2” and 201 pounds according to Auburn’s official athletics website, Coates possesses a combination of strength and speed that make him a tough player for any defensive back to defend.
If he is going to be a top prospect, he needs to display a more diversified ability to run routes. Nonetheless, Saturday was a good reminder of Coates’ playmaking ability and how much potential he has.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 1-2
Stock Down: Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford, Sr.
3 of 13
This Week: Four receptions for 12 yards, five rushing attempts for 14 yards, one kickoff return for 42 yards
Opponent: Notre Dame
Typically the star of Stanford’s offense, senior Ty Montgomery was a liability on Saturday as the Cardinal dropped a marquee midseason game against Notre Dame, 17-14.
While Montgomery actually caught four passes, he had just as many balls thrown his way that he was unable to secure for receptions. On the passes he did catch, he was unable to find any open space to make plays, and never gained more than five yards on any reception as a result.
Montgomery had a number of passes simply go off his hands for drops, but his worst play of the day came on the first play of the fourth quarter, when he allowed Notre Dame cornerback Cole Luke to bump him off his route at the catch point to establish position on Montgomery and make his second interception of the game.
There’s a lot to like about Montgomery as a receiving prospect, but he must avoid more games like Saturday’s if he is going to be an early-round draft pick. He showed none of his usual open-field playmaking ability after the catch on Saturday, while his issues with drops recurred.
Montgomery has good size at 6’2” and 220 pounds, according to Stanford’s official athletics website, but his game is more resembling that of smaller offensive playmakers. That’s all right if Montgomery is able to extend plays for big gains and catch the ball consistently, but he was unable to meet either of those requisites on Saturday.
Pro Football Focus’ Gordon McGuinness, who graded the game for PFF’s weekly College Game of the Week future, rated Montgomery’s performance Saturday at a negative-4.0, the worst of any individual Stanford player in the game.
Usually at his best as a kickoff returner, Montgomery was able to display his speed on a 42-yard kickoff return, but the senior wideout needs to contribute more on offense to realize the first-round expectations that some have for him.
Current Draft Projection: Round 2
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Stock Down: Kevin Hogan, QB, Stanford, Jr.
4 of 13
This Week: 18-of-36 passing for 158 yards, two interceptions; seven rushing attempts for -16 yards, one touchdown
Opponent: Notre Dame
Despite being bad enough last Saturday against Washington to be noted in the Stock Down category one week ago, Stanford’s Kevin Hogan sent his potential draft stock even further into regression with a worse performance Saturday against Notre Dame.
In rainy conditions that were far from ideal for quarterback play, Hogan struggled mightily to adjust.
Hogan’s deep balls floated with a dire lack of velocity, which resulted in an interception on one play and a number of other downfield pass breakups. Overall, his downfield accuracy was bad against the Fighting Irish, as the redshirt junior quarterback completed just 50 percent of his passes.
He was consistently caught staring down his targets on Sunday, and his tendency to stand sedentary in the pocket was exposed as he was sacked four times.
Hogan put together one clutch, strong fourth-quarter touchdown drive that gave the Cardinal a temporary 14-10 lead, but he otherwise looked more like a player who should go undrafted than a top prospect.
It doesn’t seem as though the play of Hogan, who also has an elongated throwing delivery that can be problematic under pressure and for the timing of his throws, has improved significantly over the past two years.
He has good size at 6’4” and 225 pounds, and he moves fairly well for a quarterback, but his flaws are going to be tough for him to overcome. His best bet looks to be returning for his final year of eligibility at Stanford and continuing to work toward developing his game, but he’s looking, despite his physical tools, to be a Day 3 draft choice at best if he does declare this offseason.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 5-6
Stock Up: Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State, Jr.
5 of 13
This Week: 20-of-26 passing for 268 yards, two touchdowns; 23 rushing attempts for 77 yards and three touchdowns
Opponent: Texas A&M
In the process of Mississippi State’s blowout victory over Texas A&M on Saturday afternoon, winning redshirt junior quarterback Dak Prescott established himself as a legitimate NFL prospect at his position.
Prescott displayed accuracy throwing the ball both from the pocket and on the run as he completed nearly 77 percent of his passes on Saturday.
He was efficient as an intermediate passer while he also showed his big arm on two perfect deep balls, one of which was caught for a 51-yard touchdown by Fred Brown and the other of which would have gone for an 86-yard score if Fred Ross didn’t drop the ball right out of his hands.
A 6’2”, 230-pound quarterback with great mobility for his size, Prescott can also run. He’s not a particularly shifty runner who will make defenders miss, but he has the strength to drive forward through defenders and be an effective power running option in short-yardage and goal-line situation.
According to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, an NFL general manager recently compared Prescott to Tim Tebow, the 2010 first-round draft pick who famously led the Denver Broncos to the postseason and a playoff victory in 2011 but has since fizzled out of the NFL due to his inability to consistently complete downfield passes.
“He’s just like Tim Tebow, but he can actually throw,” the GM told Rapoport of Prescott. “Interesting prospect.”
Interesting indeed. Prescott has made clear improvements from last season in his ability to manage the game as a pocket passer, while his physical tools make him an intriguing developmental prospect.
It would be a surprise if Prescott declared this season with a year of eligibility remaining, but he’s at least worth taking a chance on in the draft’s later rounds at this point.
Current Draft Projection: Round 5-6
Stock Up: Bo Wallace, QB, Mississippi, Sr.
6 of 13
This Week: 18-of-31 passing for 251 yards, three touchdowns; 11 rushing attempts for 32 yards
Opponent: Alabama
On a Saturday that could go down as one of the best days in college football history for the state of Mississippi, Dak Prescott wasn’t the only draft-eligible quarterback from the Magnolia State to shine on the big stage. Ole Miss senior Bo Wallace wasn’t as consistent or efficient as Prescott, but he made a number of big plays that led the Rebels to a stunning 23-17 victory over Alabama.
In the first half of the game, Wallace struggled to find a rhythm passing the ball as his downfield accuracy was off, and he also took multiple bad sacks. Down the stretch of the game, however, Wallace showed tools and passing ability that should make NFL scouts take notice.
Wallace demonstrated the abilities to throw the ball with zip downfield, fit passes between tight windows and make effective throws through pressure as he made a number of pivotal throws to both set up and complete Mississippi’s three second-half touchdown drives.
It would be a stretch to call Wallace a dynamic athlete, but he displayed that he can pull the ball down and run with it when needed in this game. He has good size for the position, listed at 6’4” and 217 pounds by Ole Miss’ official athletics website.
Wallace remains no lock to even be selected in this year’s draft, but Saturday certainly looked to be a coming-of-age moment for the senior signal-caller. He’ll draw consideration as a Day 3 draft pick if he continues to make impressive downfield throws like he did against Alabama.
Current Draft Projection: Round 7 or undrafted free-agent signing
Stock Down: Landon Collins, SS, Alabama, Jr.
7 of 13
This Week: Six total tackles, beaten in coverage on two fourth-quarter touchdown passes
Opponent: Mississippi
Two weeks ago, Landon Collins was among the potential 2015 draft prospects trending upward, and looked ready to establish himself as one of the top draft-eligible players in the country, after an outstanding all-around performance vs. Florida. The talented junior safety was uncharacteristically bad, however, in Alabama’s disappointing loss to Mississippi.
Collins was at least partially responsible for each of the two touchdowns Alabama allowed in the fourth quarter.
On Bo Wallace’s first scoring pass of the final period, a 34-yard deep ball to Vince Sanders, Collins was simply late to get his head around and allowed Sanders to streak past him to get wide open down the middle. Later, he was caught out of position and beaten to the right side of the end zone by Jaylen Walton on a 10-yard pass that ended up being the game-winning score.
Before those two plays, there was another instance in which Collins could have given up a touchdown as Mississippi tight end Evan Engram beat him going down the middle to catch a deep ball but dropped the pass right out of his hands.
Collins recorded six total tackles on Saturday, but he did not record any solo tackles within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He showed ability on the back end to chase a number of plays out to the sidelines with his range, but he whiffed on an opportunity to make a tackle in the box on an early screen pass in his direction.
His stock might not be affected significantly by Saturday’s game, as he still stands out as the best safety eligible for the 2015 draft and should be a first-round selection. He is a great athlete who has impressive ball skills and a big, hard-hitting run support safety in the box. Going forward, however, he must avoid the coverage lapses that led Alabama to its first loss of the season Saturday.
Current Draft Projection: Round 1
Stock Up: Marcus Rush, DE, Michigan State, Sr.
8 of 13
This Week: Four total tackles, two tackles for loss, one strip sack, two quarterback hurries
Opponent: Nebraska
Michigan State had a great all-around defensive performance on Saturday against Nebraska, in which it had stars emerge for big games from all three levels of its defense in the Spartans’ 27-22 win, but no one had a more impressive showing than senior defensive end Marcus Rush.
Rush and Michigan State’s other starting defensive end, junior Shilique Calhoun, completely overmatched Nebraska’s offensive tackles throughout the night. The two defensive ends brought consistent pressure regardless of which sides of the line they were playing, and made it a tough night to be in the Cornhuskers backfield.
Calhoun is the more highly touted of the two defensive ends, and he has a knack for making big plays like the 38-yard fumble return he had Saturday. But while Rush isn’t quite the physical specimen Calhoun is, he’s a more relentless player who made his impact felt significantly enough against Nebraska that he earns his second Stock Up slide of the year.
As a pass-rusher, Rush forced a fumble on his one sack of the night, while he also brought heat on the quarterback on numerous other occasions. He also had a great game defending the run, as he demonstrated strength and discipline setting the edge and stopping or redirecting runs that tried to outside him.
Through five games, Rush leads the Spartans with six tackles for loss, ranks second with 3.5 sacks and is tied for second with 21 total tackles. Off to a productive start in his senior year, Rush is proving himself as a NFL-caliber edge defender who could be a middle-to-late-round draft steal.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 4-5
Stock Down: Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska, Sr.
9 of 13
This Week: 24 rushing attempts for 45 yards, two touchdowns; two catches for 22 yards; two kickoff returns for 48 yards
Opponent: Michigan State
Ameer Abdullah has had a fantastic start to his senior year and his draft stock has had a net gain as a result—just last week, he was included in our Stock Up section after rushing for 208 yards against Illinois—but a disappointing performance against Michigan State leaves unanswered questions about the Nebraska star’s ability to run between the tackles.
Abdullah was unable to find any significant running room against Michigan State—who ranks fourth in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game—and gained less than two yards per carry in Nebraska’s 27-22 loss Saturday night.
As College Spun’s Andrew Holleran pointed out in a Twitter conversation, Abdullah’s struggles had as much to do with the dominance of the Michigan State defensive line over the Nebraska offensive line as they did anything Abdullah was doing wrong.
That said, the tight to nonexistent running lanes that Abdullah faced Saturday were a far closer representation to what he’ll see in NFL defenses than the often-porous units he racked up gaudy numbers against in the first four weeks of the year.
When Abdullah has room to make defenders miss in open space, he is electric. A shifty runner who has the strength to bounce off contact, Abdullah is a big-play threat in the open field.
The concern with Abdullah is whether he will be able to get out of the backfield consistently when trying to run inside. He is a small back, listed at only 5’9” and 195 pounds by Nebraska’s official athletics website, and his lack of size and power were apparent on Saturday.
Abdullah’s abilities to contribute as a multi-purpose runner, receiver out of the backfield and kickoff returner should make him an early-round pick, but his tape from his most recent game could create some concerns about him being an NFL feature back.
Current Draft Projection: Round 2
Stock Up: Tony Lippett, WR, Michigan State, Sr.
10 of 13
This Week: Three receptions for 104 yards, including a 55-yard touchdown; one 32-yard touchdown run
Opponent: Nebraska
Michigan State junior quarterback Connor Cook drew many rave reviews for his deep passing against Nebraska on Saturday, but while Cook had a badly inconsistent game in which he completed less than 38 percent of his total passes, senior wide receiver Tony Lippett played a big role in Cook’s downfield passing success.
Lippett put his speed on display in the first quarter, when he torched Nebraska cornerback Jonathan Rose down the left sideline to breakaway from the Cornhuskers defense to catch a deep ball and finish with a 55-yard touchdown.
The wideout made another big play in the second quarter, when he made a perfect adjustment to a deep ball between double coverage and caught a 31-yard pass turning back to his quarterback.
In the third quarter, Lippett showed his ability to create in the open field when he turned a short pass into a 18-yard gain after running through a missed tackle. Later in the same series, Lippett turned in another highlight when he showed his ability to follow his blocks and find running lanes as he took a reverse all the way to the end zone for a 32-yard touchdown run.
A relative unknown during the first three years of his Michigan State career, Lippett caught just 44 passes for 613 yards and two touchdowns in a 14-game junior season. Through five games this year, Lippett already has 525 yards and seven touchdowns on 25 receptions.
Lippett has emerged as the go-to offensive playmaker on the Spartans offense, and the 6’3”, 185-pound target has proven his big-play ability on the outside. He has legitimized himself as an NFL prospect that could continue to rise.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 4-5
Hidden Gem of the Week: Devontae Booker, RB, Utah, Jr.
11 of 13
This Week: 33 rush for 156 yards, one touchdown; three receptions for 15 yards
Opponent: UCLA
Among the week’s most stunning upsets was the Saturday night victory by unranked Utah over previously No. 8-ranked UCLA, who has far more notable, NFL-caliber talent than the Utes do. That said, the night proved to be a breakout showcase for the winning team’s junior running back, Devontae Booker.
A physical between-the-tackles runner, Booker showed Saturday that he could handle a heavy workload while finishing runs through contact. His ability to gain consistent yardage and wear down the UCLA defense played a huge role in his team’s ability to score a surprise victory.
In his first year at Utah as a junior college transfer, Booker’s 156-yard game Saturday followed up a 178-yard performance in his previous outing against Washington State. He’s emerged as the Utes’ clear feature back and should have plenty of opportunities to showcase his skills from here on out.
There doesn’t appear to be anything spectacular about Booker physically, and he’s unlikely to be an early entrant into the draft. That said, he’ll get a chance to make it in the NFL in either 2015 or 2016 if he continues to display his running strength with reliable four-quarter efforts.
Current Draft Projection: Rounds 6-7
Other Notable Performers
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In a historic offensive shootout against California late Saturday night, Washington State senior quarterback Connor Halliday broke the Football Bowl Subdivision record for passing yards with 734 on a night that he completed 49 of 70 passes and had six touchdown throws.
Putting up typically gaudy numbers in a Mike Leach offense doesn’t make Halliday more than a late-round prospect, but the numbers are certainly eye-catching. The Cougars’ best offensive prospect might actually be senior wide receiver Vince Mayle, who has great size at 6’3” and 219 pounds and had 11 catches for 263 yards and a touchdown on Halliday’s record-setting night.
Ameer Abdullah still holds the Football Bowl Subdivision lead for rushing yards this season despite his poor performance Saturday, but Wisconsin junior Melvin Gordon is only seven yards back after a 259-yard rushing performance against Northwestern. Gordon hasn’t had many chances to showcase his talent in marquee games this year, but the dynamic running back has an explosive combination of speed, agility and size that makes him the likely No. 2 running back in the 2015 draft class behind Georgia’s Todd Gurley.
Another impressive running back performance in a Pac-12 upset came from Arizona senior Terris Jones-Grigsby, who rushed for 113 yards and also gained 95 yards on four receptions in the Wildcats’ stunning win over Oregon. The last run of Jones-Grigsby’s night might have been his most impressive, as he battled his way through a glut of defenders for a nine-yard gain on 3rd-and-5 to seal victory.
Jones-Grigsby is a small back at just 5’7” and 195 pounds, but the toughness and ability to make plays as a receiver that he should Thursday could get him a look from the NFL.
It was mentioned before that Marcus Rush wasn’t the only Michigan State defender to have a big day against Nebraska on Saturday. Junior cornerback Trae Waynes, a potential first-round pick, had a couple of key mistakes but also had two interceptions and four total passes defensed.
Senior safety Kurtis Drummond had some issues in man coverage against Nebraska’s Jordyn Westerkamp, but he was all over the field as a run defender and especially excelled at attacking a number of screen passes for stops. And senior middle linebacker Taiwan Jones also had a strong performance in which he recorded 10 tackles, including three for loss.
While Saturday was a disappointing day for Alabama, one Crimson Tide player to stand out in its losing effort was senior outside linebacker Xzavier Dickson. Lined up almost exclusively over Mississippi right tackle Fahn Cooper, Dickson did an excellent job setting the edge and was also productive as a pass-rusher; he finished the game with six total tackles, including 3.5 tackles for loss and two sacks.
Dickson, an impressive physical specimen listed at 6’3” and 268 pounds, could be a quality Day 3 selection for a 3-4 team looking for depth at the outside linebacker.
NFL Draft Injury Notes
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Friday night’s game between Utah State and BYU was supposed to be a showcase of the state’s star quarterbacks, USU senior Chuckie Keeton and BYU junior Taysom Hill, but neither quarterback made it through the week healthy.
Keeton was announced earlier in the week as being likely out for the season after reinjuring his left knee, in which he tore his ACL and MCL in 2013, according to Tess Quinlan of USA Today Sports. During Friday’s game, Hill did not only have his leg fractured but also tore every major ligament in his leg, according to Jay Drew of The Salt Lake Tribune.
Both quarterbacks are dynamic dual-threats when healthy, but neither is a polished pro-style pocket passer and both now have to overcome major injury concerns. It is likely that Keeton will seeking a medical redshirt and Hill will return for his senior year.
Perhaps the most gruesome injury came when Alabama junior running back Kenyan Drake had his leg badly bent out of shape on a tackle. He was the third-string tailback for the Crimson Tide, but is an explosive athlete who has legitimate NFL potential if he can make a full recovery from his injury, which has ended his season.
Oregon defensive end Arik Armstead, an intriguing prospect at 6’8” and 290 pounds, left Thursday’s game against Arizona with a foot injury that had him in a boot Monday, according to Molly Blue of The Oregonian. Armstead told reporters Monday that he hopes to play against UCLA on Saturday.
Florida State senior running back Karlos Williams has been a disappointment this year, failing to show the dynamic rushing ability that was expected of him, and it’s getting worse as he is now expected to miss FSU’s game against Syracuse on Saturday, according to Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel. Senior wide receiver Rashad Greene, a potential second-round pick, could also miss Saturday’s game with a concussion.
Cincinnati redshirt sophomore Gunner Kiel has gotten off to an impressive start this year in his first collegiate playing season, but he suffered a chest injury on Saturday against Memphis. Bearcats coach Tommy Tuberville said Kiel, a talented player who could emerge as a top quarterback prospect in 2016, is likely to be out “a while,” according to Tom Groeschen of The Cincinnati Enquirer.
Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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