MLB Playoffs 2014: TV Schedule, Live Stream, Bracket Predictions for Day 4

The Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers will fight for their MLB playoff lives on Sunday as they look to avoid being swept from the American League Division Series.

Despite entering the postseason with baseball's best record, the Angels enter Kauffman Stadium on the brink of elimination. Constantly defined as a "small ball" team, the Kansas City Royals won two games in California by the strength of two late home runs.

As for the Detroit Tigers, they've learned that a marquee starting rotation doesn't always guarantee postseason success, as their bullpen imploded twice to award Baltimore the early edge.

Are the Angels and Tigers going home early, or can they fend off elimination during a pair of must-win Game 3 ALDS matchups? Sorry football, you're taking a back seat to baseball this Sunday.

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV	Series
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers	3:45 p.m.	TBS	BAL 2-0
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals	7:37 p.m	TBS	KC 2-0

Live Stream: MLB.TV (subscription required)

Day 4 Predictions

Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers (BAL 2-0)

Pitching Matchup: Bud Norris vs. David Price

Detroit's bullpen woes aren't a new problem that randomly surfaced in a short sample size. During the season, its relief corps ranked 26th with a 0.6 WAR and 27th with a 4.09 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). 

Boy, it has sure mauled the Tigers in Games 1 and 2, allowing 12 eighth-inning runs to squander two potential wins. Joba Chamberlain pitched so badly in the opening game that Baltimore fans cheered him in anticipation of his second straight meltdown, per MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince:

Fortunately for the Tigers, they're in a good position to take this one out of the bullpen's hands. Using the simple "Which starting pitcher is better?" prediction model, Detroit gets the edge by a landslide with David Price pitching Game 3.

The former Cy Young Award winner takes the hill for Detroit, inexplicably behind Justin Verlander despite the newcomer's sensational 271 strikeouts and 38 walks. He struggled at times this season, entering June with a 4.27 ERA, but his 9.82 strikeouts/nine innings (K/9), 2.78 FIP and 6.1 WAR are all career highs by a wide margin.

IP	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	BABIP	FIP	WAR
248.1	3.26	1.08	271	38	.306	2.78	6.1

If not for the familiarity bias, Price would have started Game 1. Instead, he's forced to save his new squad in an elimination game. Averaging 7.3 innings per start in 2014, he's just the man to keep this game away from the leaky bullpen. If not, Tigers, maybe don't take out Anibal Sanchez through two perfect innings for Chamberlain this time. Just a thought.

Meanwhile, Bud Norris sports a 4.80 ERA on the road and a .478 opposing slugging percentage in high-leverage situations. Buck Showalter has shown a wise willingness to use his relievers whenever he needs them rather than adhering to constructing roles, so he'll need to yank out Norris quickly at the sniff of trouble.

The runs will keep coming between the American League's two best offenses in terms of slugging percentage, but Detroit will produce more damage. Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez all registered slugging percentages of .520 or higher against right-handers this season. Norris is a righty, and not a particularly imposing one.

Prediction: Tigers 9, Orioles 4

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals (KC 2-0)

Pitching Matchup: C.J. Wilson vs. James Shields

The Angels led the league in runs scored during the season, so naturally they were outscored twice by the Royals, who hit a pair of game-winning homers after tallying a league-low 95 deep bombs through 162 games.

Ladies and gentleman, welcome to playoff baseball. It's a weird and unpredictable roll of the dice. Now it's time to predict Game 3.

Erasing a 29-year absence from postseason baseball, the Royals are making up for lost time, earning three extra-inning victories during the week. Although it's mostly coincidental, ESPN Stats & Info tracked the success of every other team that accomplished the same feat:

Given their lack of power and underwhelming plus-27 run differential, they're certainly not as good a team on paper as the Oakland Athletics or Angels. Yet here they are, one victory away from the American League Championship Series.

Eric Hosmer would probably relish that sentiment. After hitting a game-winning home run on Friday night, he described his fondness of defying the odds, per MLB.com:

Let's be clear: The Royals are not proving that power is overrated. But what they lack in offense, they make up for with defense and relief pitching. FanGraphs gives them the highest defensive WAR in baseball, and Greg Holland and Wade Davis lead a terrific bullpen that would have even more value if manager Ned Yost let either of them pitch before the eighth inning.

Harry How/Getty Images

That's the same formula they'll need to sweep the Angels behind James Shields, who for some reason is called "Big Game James" despite his 5.26 career postseason ERA. He's still a more trustworthy option than the erratic C.J. Wilson, but constantly winning one-run games against superior offenses is not a sustainable path to victory.

Mike Trout is still the best player in the world. He will easily win the AL MVP at age 23 in what was by far the worst season of his career. Given the cruel beast of playoff baseball, he's gone cold, marred in an 0-for-8 slump. Trust the bigger picture of data and count on a big day from him and the Angels as they live to fight another day.

Prediction: Angels 5, Royals 4

Note: Advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com.