NFL Picks Week 5: Odds and Over-Under Advice Before Sunday Kickoff

Sunday's slate of Week 5 NFL battles includes a jam-packed schedule that features everything from conference-heavyweight showdowns to hotly anticipated divisional clashes.

With the season a quarter of the way through, we're beginning to figure out where several teams are heading. But just as evident are the teams nobody can really figure out thanks to polar-opposite performances from week to week.

Anybody who spends his or her Sundays watching madness unfold on the gridiron knows just how unpredictable the NFL can prove to be week-in and week-out. With that said, a number of matchups in Week 5 jump off the page as definite bets worth taking.

Here's a last-minute rundown of Sunday's odds and over-under picks.

Matchup (Spread)	Over/Under	Spread	Prediction
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-1.5)	46	CAR (-1.5)	CHI 27-24
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (Even)	44	Even	CLE 20-16
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)	47.5	PHI (-7)	PHI 31-17
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-4)	50	NYG (-4)	NYG 27-23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-11)	48	NO (-11)	NO 34-20
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-7)	47	DAL (-7)	DAL 21-17
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-7.5)	43	DET (-7.5)	DET 27-14
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3)	48.5	IND (-3)	IND 24-20
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars	47.5	PIT (-7)	PIT 31-16
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-9)	48	DEN (-9)	DEN 28-24
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)	44	SF (-5.5)	SF 28-24
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-7.5)	43.5	SD (-7.5)	SD 31-27
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (Even)	46	Even	CIN 28-18
Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) at Washington Redskins	45	SEA (-8.5)	SEA 35-24

Note: Odds via OddsShark.com, last updated 9 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 3

Best Bets for Week 5

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (Even Spread)

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Just when the New England Patriots started to show that they might have what it takes to mask their deficiencies, they were exposed worse than ever on Monday Night Football. While they'll have to overcome a short week, the rested Cincinnati Bengals come to town.

The Bengals head to Gillette Stadium a perfect 3-0 and coming off a Week 4 bye that allowed players like wideout A.J. Green, linebacker Sean Porter and more to nurse injuries and come back healthier. Considering Green caught six balls for 102 yards against the Titans, there's no telling what he'll do while healthy for Week 5. 

With a looming matchup with Patriots corner Darrelle Revis, though, Green might have his work cut out for him—even if Revis won't admit to reporters that he's taking up the task of covering Green:

"

It’s a team effort on defense. It’s not one individual on defense, and that’s how you’ve got to look at it. Whatever is best for the defense, game planning-wise, to help us win, that’s what we’re going to do. The goal out of this is getting a win. It doesn’t matter if I’m inside, outside, if I’m coming off the edge. We’re just trying to get a W.

"

Revis' arrival in New England has helped the Patriots become the league's top passing defense through four games, but the same impact hasn't been felt stopping the run. The Patriots rank a lowly 23rd in rush defense, giving up nearly 130 yards on the ground per game.

Against the smash-and-dash duo of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill that has looked like a daunting two-headed rushing attack, that could get even worse.

Of course, Tom Brady has shown over time that he can keep the Patriots in games with complete teams such as Cincinnati. But he's facing some of the biggest struggles of his career and is surrounded by a receiving corps and an offensive line that has been a far cry from mediocre to start out 2014.

Add that to the task of having to face the NFL's top-ranked defense, and returning home shouldn't bring a return to the win column for New England.

Bet: Bengals (Even)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-11)

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Shockingly enough, the Buccaneers and Saints are tied at the bottom of the NFC South through four games. But Sunday's matchup will be the beginning of the end of that.

The Bucs come in off a surprising 27-24 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend, making some late magic to pull off Lovie Smith's first victory as Tampa Bay's head coach. Meanwhile, the Saints continued playing terrible football on the road in a 38-17 loss at Dallas.

But a return to the Superdome—and a meeting with one of the NFL's worst teams—are reasons to believe the Saints can get back to their winning ways.

The Saints were a perfect 8-0 at home last year and are 1-0 there in 2014, and Drew Brees should like his chances against a hapless secondary. The Bucs rank 28th in pass defense and have allowed the highest opponent passer rating of all 32 teams. 

Meanwhile, Brees and Co. still rank third in the league with 294 yards passing per game despite a lowly 1-3 record.

New Orleans' secondary isn't much better (28th in pass defense), but face a Bucs passing offense that is last in the NFL. Other than occasional deep balls to Vincent Jackson or Mike Evans, it's hard to envision the Bucs coming close to matching the Saints' offensive output.

It's a lopsided spread, but not one to shy away from—even after the Bucs shocked the league a week ago.

Bet: Saints (-11)

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (Over/Under: 44)

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

The Kansas City Chiefs were already hard to get a read on. Then Week 4 happened, and a Monday Night Football blowout of the Patriots suddenly moved the 2-2 Chiefs from considerable regression to perhaps a return to the postseason. 

Speaking of teams few can get a read on, the 49ers also sit at 2-2. After threatening to fall to 1-3 at home against the Eagles in Week 4, they rallied to victory and avoided what would have been a shocking start to 2014.

Sunday's game will not only decide which playoff team from a year ago will fall below .500 but also serves as a homecoming for Alex Smith. Despite proving himself by taking the Chiefs to the playoffs in his first season there, he'll be looking to show the 49ers that they gave up much more than a game-manager.

Of course, the 49ers defense (seventh against the pass, second against the run) just recently shut down the Eagles' potent offense. But the Chiefs have scored a combined 75 points in their last two games and finally have Jamaal Charles back making plays. Bleacher Report's Russell S. Baxter noted Charles' success in nearly every game he suits up:

The Chiefs should be able to eclipse the 20-point mark considering their recent success, but no Eric Berry and injuries across the defense makes one wonder if Kansas City will be able to stand up to San Francisco. The Niners have gotten away from their ground-and-pound attack at times, but the Chiefs give up five yards per carry (28th in the league) and are considerably banged-up up front.

With one of the lowest over-under lines of the weekend, the Chiefs and 49ers will easily top 44 points between them. It won't be a shootout, but these offenses have shown over recent weeks that they're awfully tough to stop on the ground.

Bet: Over

Note: All stats per Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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