NFL Predictions Week 5: Last-Minute Picks and Advice for Sunday's Schedule

The 2014 NFL season is only entering its fifth week, but there have already been too many surprises to count.

Trying to forecast NFL games has always been a bit of a fool's errand, but the task seems even more perilous this year. The only sure thing so far has been near-anarchy.

Of course, none of that will ever stop people from trying to be the smartest guy or girl in the room. Plus, that one time you nail the week's biggest upset covers all of those wrong predictions you made before.

With Sunday's games hours from kicking off, here's some quick advice before you pick your winners.

Time (ET)	Matchup	Line	Pick
1 p.m.	Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers	CAR, -2.5	CHI
1 p.m.	Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans	TEN, -2.5	CLE
1 p.m.	St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles	PHI, -7	PHI
1 p.m.	Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants	NYG, -3.5	NYG
1 p.m.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints	NO, -12	NO
1 p.m.	Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys	DAL, -4	HOU
1 p.m.	Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions	DET -6.5
1 p.m.	Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts	IND, -3	IND
1 p.m.	Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars	PIT, -5.5	PIT
4:05 p.m.	Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos	DEN, -7
4:25 p.m.	Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers	SF, -7.5	SF
4:25 p.m.	New York Jets at San Diego Chargers	SD, -7	SD
8:30 p.m.	Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots	NE, -2.5	CIN
Mon., 8:30 p.m.	Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Redskins	SEA, -7

Note: Betting lines are courtesy of Odds Shark.

Lock of the Week: Seattle Seahawks

While the Washington Redskins aren't a good football team, be wary of underselling them too much after their 45-14 Thursday night debacle against the New York Giants. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were throttled by the Atlanta Falcons and followed with a win in Week 4.

With that said, Washington isn't going to beat the Seattle Seahawks.

Expectations about the reigning Super Bowl champions were a bit tempered after their Week 2 loss to the San Diego Chargers. However, many are still arguing that the Seahawks are one of the best teams in the league.

The defense has regressed slightly, but that's to be expected considering how great it was last year. And it's not like that regression has been significant. We're talking about a defense that went from No. 1 in total yards last year to sixth so far in 2014.

If you're still on the fence about this game, then ask yourself one question: Do you trust Kirk Cousins to win this game?

The answer to that would seem to be a resounding no after his horrific performance against the Giants.

Seattle knows what it needs to do to shut down Washington, and that's limit the running game.

"I think with any team, if you’re controlling the run game and keep them from being balanced, that gives you have a higher percentage chance of getting the win," said Seahawks defensive tackle Kevin Williams, per Stephen Cohen of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. "You know you’re just rushing the passer. You can get after the quarterback."

Seattle's defeat to the Chargers did raise the inevitable "Are the Seahawks any good away from CenturyLink Field?" discussion, but this game could be played on the moon and the Seahawks would still win.

Prediction: Seattle 31, Washington 17

Don't Sleep On: Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are currently in a three-way tie for the AFC East lead. Given the Miami Dolphins are the Dolphins and the New England Patriots have their fair share of problems, it's entirely plausible that the Bills could win the division for the first time since 1995.

Many will likely question the idea that a team quarterbacked by Kyle Orton could be a playoff contender, but Grantland's Robert Mays argued that the Bills' overall strength across the board means the need for a Pro Bowl-caliber QB isn't there:

"

Orton is not and never has been a great quarterback, but the Bills aren’t looking for great. They’re looking for passable. Not counting his disaster of a rookie season, when Orton was shoved into duty for an injured Rex Grossman, he’s completed 60 percent of his passes while throwing for 6.9 yards per attempt. Those numbers line up almost exactly with league averages over the past decade. Kyle Orton is the face of unspectacular quarterbacking, and that — even more than the mustache — is what makes him the perfect face of these Bills.

"

With the Detroit Lions on tap, Buffalo has a nice opportunity to prove its postseason bona fides, at least as much as the team can this early in the season.

The Lions defense has been one of the best in the league so far, defying everybody's expectations coming into the season. With the Bills' problems throwing the football, this game could be over rather early.

The equalizer could be Buffalo's run defense, with ranks second in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Detroit hasn't had a ton of success on the ground this year, averaging 87.3 yards a game (26th) and 3.1 yards per carry (30th).

If Buffalo eliminates the running game as a threat, then it can focus more on stopping the Lions' air attack.

At the very least, the Bills should keep this close.

Prediction: Detroit 27, Buffalo 24

Upset of the Week: Arizona Cardinals

It's easy to see why the Denver Broncos are favored over the unbeaten Arizona Cardinals. Denver has a massive chip on its shoulder and is coming off a bye week following its loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

However, the Arizona Cardinals are themselves coming off a bye week, so the coaching staff has had an extra seven days to devise a game plan to stop Peyton Manning and cover up for the absence of Carson Palmer.

What could be Arizona's salvation is the fact that the Broncos haven't looked dominant in any of their three games so far in 2014. They jumped out to comfortable first-half leads over the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs before struggling in the second half. Against the Seahawks, they came on strong in the final two frames, but a loss is still a loss.

After setting the league ablaze in 2013, Manning and Co. haven't recreated that same magic. The Broncos offense as a whole has gotten dragged down for a lack of a consistent running threat, but the passing game hasn't quite clicked, either. You can see Denver's offensive statistics to the left.

The most important objective for Drew Stanton will be avoiding turnovers. The Cardinals can't afford to give the ball back to the Broncos offense on an interception.

If he can protect the ball, Arizona's running game and great defense will be enough to pull off the surprise win.

Prediction: Cardinals 20, Broncos 17