NFL Picks & Predictions Week 5: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Nick KostosOct 4, 2014

Happy Week 5, my fellow degenerates!

Last week, I continued my winning ways, fashioning together a mark of 8-4-1 against the spread to push my record to five games above .500 for the season. My best bets (listed in the final slide and played by yours truly in the Hilton SuperContest) only went 2-3, though, so your boy has some work to do.

Thus far, this week has been the toughest to handicap. Eight of the remaining 12 Week 5 games feature lines of at least six points, making it impossible to feel truly confident about picks.

But as always, I've been poring over the numbers. I've been studying line movement with the same concentration level of the creepy old man at the strip club on his Tuesday lunch break. I'm ready to rock and roll.

Here is my ultimate bettor's guide to NFL Week 5.

Total Season ATS: 33-27-2 (including Green Bay this past Thursday night)

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 11-9

Thursday Night Football: Minnesota at Green Bay

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Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Final Score: Green Bay 42, Minnesota 10 (Green Bay covers -7.5)

This was the lock of the century.

I mean, how can the line for this past Thursday night's game be explained? Once it was announced that Christian Ponder was starting for the Vikings in place of an injured Teddy Bridgewater, the line should have been readjusted to Green Bay -29.5.

And the Packers still would have covered the number!

If you consider yourself a member of #TeamDegenerate and either didn't bet on the Packers or (gasp) played the Vikings, you aren't doing it right.

The Packers were a stone-cold lock and were also the survivor pick this week.

I hope you reaped the benefits.

I know I did.

Chicago at Carolina

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Gail Burton/Associated Press

Line: Chicago at Carolina (-2.5)

I know, I know: The Chicago Bears seem to play better on the road than they do at home. Both of their wins (San Francisco, NY Jets) have come away from the friendly confines of Solder Field, while both of their losses (Buffalo, Green Bay) have occurred in the Windy City.

So it stands to reason that the Bears would get back in the win column this week since they're playing at Carolina on Sunday, right?

Wrong.

Right now, the Bears defense is dreadful, allowing 25 points per game and 4.7 yards per opposing rushing attempt. So even though the Panthers offense won't be confused by anyone with the '84 Dolphins, expect Cam Newton and Co. to have some success matriculating the ball down the field.

A player to watch for is Panthers undrafted rookie running back Darrin Reaves, who has an opportunity to carve up the aforementioned Bears run defense.

Since the line is under a field goal, I feel good about grabbing the home team, especially because I don't think Chicago will win the game.

The Pick: Carolina -2.5

Houston at Dallas

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Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Line: Houston at Dallas (-6.5)

Last Sunday night, it officially happened.

I looked outside my apartment window in lovely New York City and was stunned to see a pig go flying by at warp speed. Then, I got a weather update on my iPhone (which, by the way, causes it to rumble with the same force as a Californian tectonic plate) that hell had indeed frozen over.

Perhaps it's a coincidence that these events coincided with the Dallas Cowboys—the thought-to-be-horrendous Dallas Cowboys—smacking around the New Orleans Saints last Sunday night to cover the line of +3. Perhaps not.

But one thing is definitely certain: The Dallas Cowboys are a lot better than most (including yours truly) thought they were.

Hell, just take a look at the above picture. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is adjusting that tie with confidence, damn it. He knows his team has been good. He knows it can run the ball. He surely has dreams of Super Bowls and sugar plum fairies dancing through his warped head.

But let's be real: The Cowboys should not be favored by 6.5 points over anyone just yet. This line is way too big.

The fact of the matter is that the Cowboys are a public team, meaning that because of their popularity nationwide, the moronic denizens are more apt to wager their hard-earned money on the Cowboys than other teams (such as the Texans). That is why the line has risen to Cowboys -6.5.

The Cowboys are better than the Texans, but the number is too big. Take the points with confidence.

The Pick: Houston +6.5

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Buffalo at Detroit

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David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Line: Buffalo at Detroit (-7)

On the surface, the Bills at the Lions might not seem like a fun game to gamble on, but if you dive a little deeper, it's rife with juicy storylines that should make it a #TeamDegenerate favorite this Sunday.

Let's begin with the Buffalo quarterback situation, as Bills coach Doug Marrone has benched starter EJ Manuel in favor of backup Kyle Orton. First things first: This is a ballsy decision by Marrone, who is clearly in full-on job-saving mode. Hell, he'd sign you off the street and start you against the Lions if he felt you were better than Manuel.

So now the hopes and dreams of a franchise rest on the right arm of Orton and his neckbeard. The problem is, we've seen that movie before (with features in Chicago and Denver, among other places) and we know how it ends: in gruesome fashion for the team that employs him.

And let's not forget the revenge angle, as Bills defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is set to make his (not-so triumphant?) return to Motown, where he served as head coach from 2009-13. While Schwartz was atrocious in Detroit, often channeling a combination of both his inner Norv Turner and Buddy Ryan, there's no question that the man can coach defense, and his unit will be ready to play.

Last week, I wrote that it's only a matter of time before Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford blows a game in hideous fashion. I thought it would happen on the road against the Jets—silly me, I should have realized he would surely save his first meltdown of the season for the adoring fans at Ford Field!

There's too much karma on the side of the Bills. Thanks to the quarterback switch, they're undervalued. The Lions are overvalued thanks to their 3-1 start.

Forget the points! Give me the dynamic duo of Orton and Schwartz (which sounds more like a law firm than a quarterback/defensive coordinator combination) to beat the Lions outright.

The Pick: Buffalo +7

Baltimore at Indianapolis

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Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Line: Baltimore at Indianapolis (-3.5)

Whenever a line is 3.5 on either side, I always ask myself the question: Could I see the underdog winning the game outright?

If the answer is "yes," then you have to take the points.

So, I ask myself: Could I see the Baltimore Ravens going into Indianapolis and beating the Colts outright?

Yes. Yes, I could.

The Pick: Baltimore +3.5

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

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Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Line: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (+6)

Earlier this week, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger said that his Sunday counterpart, Jacksonville's Blake Bortles, reminds him of a younger version of himself.

It makes sense. Bortles moves and throws like a young Roethlisberger. The difference is that Bortles' Jaguars have been horrendous, while Roethlisberger's old Steelers teams were absolutely loaded.

Thankfully for Bortles, he won't be going up against the Steelers defenses that supported Roethlisberger so admirably in his first few years. He'll be shredding an overrated and overmatched unit that could eventually lead to coach Mike Tomlin's ouster.

This will be Bortles' coming-out party. He's going to slice and dice Pittsburgh.

I like the Steelers to win the game, but give me Bortles and the Jaguars to cover the number.

The Pick: Jacksonville +6

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

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Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Line: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-10)

Per gambling guru RJ Bell, since 2010, the New Orleans Saints are 18-0-1 against the spread at home (with Sean Payton coaching).

With that information in tow, I'd like for you to take a deep breath, relax your muscles, slowly close your eyes and repeat after me:

The New Orleans Saints are playing at home in the Superdome.

Ya dig?

The Pick: New Orleans -10

Atlanta at NY Giants

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Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Line: Atlanta at NY Giants (-4)

This spread is a classic case of an undervalued team (the Atlanta Falcons) going up against an overvalued team (the NY Giants).

Last week, the Falcons laid an egg so large it'd have made Humpty Dumpty jealous, getting blown out by the Vikings in rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater's first NFL start.

Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off a thrashing of the Redskins last Thursday night on national television. The win improved Big Blue's record to 2-2 and has fans once again dreaming of an unlikely trip to the Super Bowl.

All of these factors have led to oddsmakers setting the spread at Giants -4. On the surface, the number looks too small. Hell, the Falcons couldn't beat the Vikings, and they're going to go on the road and cover against Eli Manning and the Giants? And man, the Giants, winners of two straight, should easily take down the Falcons, right? Right?

Wrong.

If that's how this whole thing worked, Vegas would be a strip of bodegas and every moron in the general public would be rich.

Instead, the public usually gets buried and Vegas dances a jig on their grave.

Take the points with the undervalued club and thank me on Monday morning.

The Pick: Atlanta +4

St. Louis at Philadelphia

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Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Line: St. Louis at Philadelphia (-7)

In yet another spread from the department of "Whoa, can it really be this easy?" the Philadelphia Eagles are only giving a touchdown at home against the putrid St. Louis Rams.

The first inclination is to obviously hop on the Eagles bandwagon and hope to ride it to a double-digit victory bereft of worry and sweat.

But once you start to peel back the layers of this game, you realize why the line is what it is.

Philadelphia's offensive line has been ravaged by injuries, and even though right tackle Lane Johnson returns this week from a four-game suspension, the unit is still in tatters. This shapes up as a tremendous matchup for the Rams' vaunted defensive line to get off the schneid and make a number of big plays.

Plus, the Rams are rolling with "Stone Cold" Austin Davis at quarterback, and the kid has shown a ton of moxie thus far this season.

The bottom line (because Austin Davis said so) is that the Rams are better than you think they are, while the Eagles have yet to truly round into form. Plus, the Rams have had two weeks to prepare.

Give me the Eagles to win, but the Rams to keep it close and cover the spread.

The Pick: St. Louis +7

Cleveland at Tennessee

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Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Line: Cleveland at Tennessee (-2.5)

Fact: Everyone and his or her mother love the Browns to cover the 2.5-point spread in Tennessee.

Fact: People are stupid.

Fact: Despite rumors to the contrary, Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer is not the second coming of Otto Graham.

Fact: The Tennessee Titans are getting back their starting quarterback, Jake Locker, and are playing at home.

Fact: Everyone and his or her mother love the Browns to cover the 2.5-point spread.

Fact: People are stupid.

The Pick: Tennessee -2.5

Arizona at Denver

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Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Line: Arizona at Denver (-7.5)

Ladies and gentlemen, I have a confession to make.

My name is Nick Kostos, I'm 31 years old, and I have a man crush on Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians.

In his time on the Cardinals sideline, Arians has compiled a record of 13-6, and that's not including his 2012 Coach of the Year stint in Indianapolis while filling in for an ill Chuck Pagano. He has proven to be a dynamic leader and force to be reckoned with.

And, most importantly, he inspires confidence in bettors thanks to his aggressive offensive philosophy.

Now compare Arians to his Sunday counterpart: John Fox of the Denver Broncos. Fox is the kind of dude who eats his sandwiches dry despite having a fleet of condiments to choose from. Even though Fox employs the great Peyton Manning at quarterback, he's beyond content to sit on the ball with a huge lead and try and run out the clock. In a related story, the Broncos are 0-3 against the spread this season.

Arians doesn't just want to jazz up his sandwich—he needs to jazz up his sandwich. He goes for broke, slathering that bad boy with everything under the sun. Why? Because Bruce Arians is the kind of guy that wants it all, damn it. And that's the kind of coach I want to gamble my hard-earned money on.

I have a sinking suspicion that the Cardinals won't only cover the spread, but win the game outright.

And it's going to be because of the aggressive personality of their head coach.

#swoon.

The Pick: Arizona +7.5

NY Jets at San Diego

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Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Line: NY Jets at San Diego (-6.5)

In life, is there anything better than the beginning of a new relationship?

The so-called honeymoon period is fantastic. Everything is new and exciting. You can barely keep your hands off each other. Before you get to know all the person's horrible faults and flaws and they expose themselves to be truly awful people, things are smooth sailing, as every foible seems "cute" and makes you smile.

Right now, the San Diego Chargers and I are in the honeymoon phase of our relationship. And I'm having the time of my life.

You see, I've taken the Chargers in each of the first four weeks of the season, both here in my Bettor's Guide and in the Hilton SuperContest (where I'm sponsored by Odds Shark). And my boys from San Diego have covered the spread each and every week.

I've been around the block long enough to know that the good times don't last forever. At some point, the Chargers will let me down. Logic and reason dictate that they aren't going 16-0 against the spread.

But at this point, I'm infatuated with the Chargers. They can do no wrong in my eyes. I want to post pictures on Instagram with hokey hashtags (#bolts, #superchargers, #stayvictorioussandiego) expressing my love for them. I want to be the obnoxious, tone-deaf boyfriend who can't stop gushing over his new squeeze.

So when the warning signs begin to show themselves—like the Chargers being favored by less than a touchdown at home over the dysfunctional Jets—I ignore them. I'm blinded by emotion.

I love you, San Diego. Please don't break my heart.

The Pick: San Diego -6.5

Kansas City at San Francisco

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Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Line: Kansas City at San Francisco (-5.5)

If Sunday's game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers were a movie, the Chiefs would absolutely win at the end in heartwarming fashion.

You see, this is the game where Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith makes his triumphant return to the Bay Area to play against his former team and coach, and the revenge factor is high. Even though Smith took the 49ers to the 2011 NFC Championship Game, coach Jim Harbaugh was literally looking for any excuse possible to bench him and insert his young signal-caller, Colin Kaepernick, into the lineup.

Oh, Alex, you stubbed your toe? Get Kaepernick ready to play! No, I don't think you can play. No, I don't care that it doesn't hurt. Look, enough, I have to go buy a new pair of khakis and I can't listen to this anymore.

In the offseason preceding the 2012 campaign, Harbaugh met with then-free agent quarterback Peyton Manning, a stunning insult to Smith, who had nearly led the 49ers to a championship only a few months before.

And after suffering a concussion during that season, Kaepernick got his chance and never looked back. That offseason, Smith was dealt to the Chiefs.

This is Smith's change at revenge. To beat the coach who traded him and didn't want him. To beat the quarterback that replaced him. To stick it to a fanbase that often treated him like he carried Ebola.

Hollywood would write one hell of an ending to this game.

But this ain't Hollywood. It's real life.

And in real life, the better team wins.

The Pick: San Francisco -5.5

Sunday Night Football: Cincinnati at New England

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Stephan Savoia/Associated Press

Line: Cincinnati at New England (+1)

Over the past 10-plus years, it's sobering to think about just how much of my own hard-earned money I've wagered on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

Even though they haven't won a Super Bowl since they haven't been allowed to record opposing teams practicing (sorry Patriots fans, I'm from New York), New England has been dominant, winning and covering much more often than not.

But my dear readers, we now stand at the precipice of an event we thought we'd never see: the end of the Patriots run as a truly exceptional team.

Last Monday night, New England was decimated on the road in Kansas City, losing 41-14. It was stunning to watch Belichick and Brady get manhandled like that in front of a national audience, and led many to throw dirt on the team's collective grave this week. The Patriots are now 2-2, but haven't played especially well.

Meanwhile, their opponent on Sunday night, the 3-0 Cincinnati Bengals, have the look and feel of a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Bengals should win on Sunday night. Theoretically, their defense should manhandle New England's overmatched offensive line. Theoretically, the Bengals should be able to run it down New England's throat.

But I know this: I want my money on Belichick and Brady when their backs are against the wall. I'll take Belichick and Brady over Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton any day of the week, twice on Sunday and three times on Sunday night.

If this is truly the last stand of the Patriots dynasty, count me in. Who knows how many more opportunities we'll get to wager on arguably the greatest coach/quarterback combination in the history of the NFL.

Let's do it one more time, boys. For old times sake.

The Pick: New England +1

Monday Night Football: Seattle at Washington

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Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Line: Seattle at Washington (+7)

This line is a classic Vegas Jedi mind trick.

Just imagine the homeboy Darth Vegas, chillin' in some hyperbaric chamber in the bowls of the Wynn, speaking in a voice that may or may not sound exactly like James Earl Jones:

The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks have had two weeks of rest...The Washington Redskins were just destroyed at home in front of a national audience...Let's make the Seahawks a touchdown favorite and make the rebels bet on Seattle...Bwahahahaha!

OK, maybe Darth Vegas doesn't laugh in over-the-top villainous fashion, but you get the idea.

This line is ridiculous. Ask any average football fan what the score will be in this game, and before he breathes in with his mouth, he'll tell you the Seahawks will win by double digits.

And when that happens, remember this all-important mantra: People are stupid.

Take the points, and on Monday, when everyone and their mother tells you how much they love the Seahawks to win in blowout fashion, smile and repeat to yourself: The casinos didn't build themselves.

The Pick: Washington +7