Week 5 NFL Picks: Breaking Down Surest Survival Pool Selections

In a season that has been rife with major upsets already, most weekly survival pools are likely getting thin. For those who are still alive though, the finish line is likely in sight.

Picking a winner without the point spread in any given week seems simple enough, but pretty much anything can happen in the NFL. Add in the fact that most people have probably already used a lot of the league's top teams and avoiding a loss becomes even more difficult.

Perhaps there is no such thing as a true lock in the NFL, but along with a full listing of picks for Week 5, here are three games that are as close as possible to lock status.

Date	Away	Home	Spread	Pick Straight Up	Pick ATS
Oct. 5	Chicago Bears	Carolina Panthers	CAR (-3)	CHI	CHI
Oct. 5	Cleveland Browns	Tennessee Titans	Even	CLE	CLE
Oct. 5	St. Louis Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-7)	PHI	PHI
Oct. 5	Atlanta Falcons	New York Giants	NYG (-4)	NYG	NYG
Oct. 5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	New Orleans Saints	NO (-11)	NO	NO
Oct. 5	Houston Texans	Dallas Cowboys	DAL (-6)	DAL	HOU
Oct. 5	Buffalo Bills	Detroit Lions	DET (-7)	DET	DET
Oct. 5	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	IND (-3.5)	IND	IND
Oct. 5	Pittsburgh Steelers	Jacksonville Jaguars	PIT (-7)	PIT	JAC
Oct. 5	Arizona Cardinals	Denver Broncos	DEN (-7.5)	DEN	DEN
Oct. 5	Kansas City Chiefs	San Francisco 49ers	SF (-6)	SF	KC
Oct. 5	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers	SD (-7)	SD	SD
Oct. 5	Cincinnati Bengals	New England Patriots	CIN (-2)	CIN	CIN
Oct. 6	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins	SEA (-7.5)	SEA	SEA

*Point spreads courtesy of OddsShark.com. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

With matching 1-3 records, the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a huge game on their hands in Week 5. Both teams have struggled, but they are just a game out in the NFC South and still have plenty of time to turn things around.

Although the Bucs have looked worse than expected at times, the fact that they are 1-3 isn't exactly shocking. The same can't be said for the Saints, though. They were the overwhelming favorites to win the division in 2014, but they are coming off a thumping at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4.

Divisional games can be tricky; however, New Orleans is probably happy to see Tampa coming to town. According to Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times, the Saints are currently riding an impressive winning streak against the Bucs:

In addition to that, New Orleans will be at home in the Superdome, which is a massive advantage. The Saints are 1-0 at home this season, and went undefeated at the Superdome in 2013. Also, despite New Orleans' struggles, the offensive output has been fine.

As seen in this graphic courtesy of StatMilk, the Saints have a massive advantage over the Buccaneers from an offensive perspective:

Even so, Saints quarterback Drew Brees knows that his team needs to get much better in order to truly contend in the division and the conference, per ESPN.com's Mike Triplett.

"The major difference is we were 4-0 last year, 1-3 this year," Brees said. "It's obvious it's not good enough."

New Orleans' biggest weakness has been its defense, but the defense always seems to buckle down more at home. The Bucs are coming off a strong showing against the Pittsburgh Steelers due largely to the play of quarterback Mike Glennon, but he'll have a much tougher task on his hands in the dome.

As long as Brees utilizes weapons like Jimmy Graham, Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston, the Saints should be able to get back on track.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

The Arizona Cardinals are no fluke at 3-0 with wins over quality teams such as the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers. With that said, beating the Denver Broncos on the road is a tall task that few have been able to accomplish during quarterback Peyton Manning's tenure with the team.

Denver is 2-1 after losing to the Seattle Seahawks in overtime in Week 3, but they were able to regroup during a Week 4 bye. The Cards were on the bye as well last week, but RJ Bell of ESPN Radio accurately points out that Manning is dominant with an extra week of preparation:

Manning definitely has a challenge ahead of him against a tough Cards defense. Arizona is especially good against the run, which means No. 18 may not be able to rely on much from running back Montee Ball. Manning always manages to get his shots in, though, which means Arizona will have to find a way to answer back.

Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer has been dealing with a nerve issue in his shoulder that has kept him out for two straight games. He has yet to be ruled out for Week 5 officially, but a lack of progress suggests that he will have to sit once again.

That means Drew Stanton is in line to get another start. While Stanton has filled in admirably, he isn't the type of signal-caller who can go shot for shot with Manning. The Manning vs. Stanton matchup could easily decide this game, and Stephen A. Smith of ESPN's First Take is one of many who can't see Stanton keeping up:

The Cardinals are good, but they were due for a bit of a reality check eventually. The Broncos are the class of the AFC, and they will prove why once again by handing Arizona its first loss of the season.

New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

In a game that featured two teams moving in opposite directions, the San Diego Chargers will host the New York Jets in Week 5. The Bolts are on a roll that includes a win over the Seahawks, while the Jets just can't seem to get anything going offensively.

Gang Green is sticking with embattled quarterback Geno Smith under center, and this could prove to be his last stand with Michael Vick looming. Smith needs all the help he can get against an underrated San Diego defense, but he may be shorthanded as No. 1 wide receiver Eric Decker's status is uncertain, according to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News:

The Jets defense has been solid, especially against the run. New York is allowing a league-best 63 yards per game on the ground, but that shouldn't concern the Chargers too much. They haven't had any success running the ball with Donald Brown, so everything will be on quarterback Philip Rivers' shoulders anyway.

Rivers is enjoying another spectacular campaign, and he could have a field day against a suspect secondary. The Jets have allowed nine passing touchdowns and have yet to record an interception through four games. If Rivers was able to pick apart Seattle's defensive backs at home, doing the same to New York shouldn't be an issue.

The Bolts look like a team that is capable of contending in the AFC, while the Jets appear to be nothing more than cellar dwellers.

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