Week 5 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

The idea of the NFL being a matchup league is nothing new. Yet, as the season hits the quarter mark, it's ringing truer than ever. Parity is prevalent, and the results from one week haven't necessarily had a major impact on the next.

It comes down to which team can get the other out of its comfort zone. That was on full display Thursday night, as the Green Bay Packers came out aggressive, going up 14-0 inside the first 10 minutes. That's exactly what the Minnesota Vikings didn't want with Christian Ponder at the helm.

The Packers turned the game into a blowout that went over the line. If Minnesota takes control early and establishes the run, it likely stays under instead. So figuring out which teams will win those crucial battles goes a long way in making over/under selections.

With that in mind, let's check out a complete list of predictions for the rest of the Week 5 slate along with some tips for the trickiest games on the board.

Week 5 Over/Under Picks

Date	Road	Home	Line	Pick
Oct. 5	Bears	Panthers	46	Under
Oct. 5	Browns	Titans	44	Over
Oct. 5	Rams	Eagles	47.5	Over
Oct. 5	Falcons	Giants	50.5	Under
Oct. 5	Buccaneers	Saints	48.5	Under
Oct. 5	Texans	Cowboys	47	Under
Oct. 5	Bills	Lions	44	Over
Oct. 5	Ravens	Colts	49	Over
Oct. 5	Steelers	Jaguars	47	Over
Oct. 5	Cardinals	Broncos	48	Under
Oct. 5	Chiefs	49ers	44.5	Under
Oct. 5	Jets	Chargers	43.5	Over
Oct. 5	Bengals	Patriots	46	Under
Oct. 6	Seahawks	Redskins	45.5	Under

Analyzing Toughest Calls

Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos, who averaged 40 more yards per game than any other team last season (457), currently rank 22nd in total yards. Those numbers won't come as a surprise to those who have watched their games. They simply haven't shown the same level of chemistry so far.

Now they have to face a Cardinals defense with the personnel to give them more problems. Arizona has three cornerbacks—Patrick Peterson, Antonio Cromartie and Jerraud Powers—capable of defending one-on-one on the outside or in the slot.

The Seattle Seahawks have now illustrated twice in a row that that's the key to slowing down Peyton Manning and Co. Play physical man coverage on the outside, limit the damage on screens and leave as many defenders as possible to attack the pocket from different looks.

In any game involving the Broncos, their offensive production is by far the most important factor in determining whether it will go over or stay under. And while it's always difficult to pick against a group with so many weapons, Arizona should slow Denver down enough to keep it under.

Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans

Picking the over in a game that features two teams without reliable passing games is always a risk. The quick-strike ability to make up points in short order doesn't exist as a safety net. That said, it also explains why this game features one of the lowest lines of the week.

The good news for both the Browns and the Titans is that their rushing attacks should be in line for terrific production. Cleveland ranks 29th against the run and Tennessee ranks 22nd, combining to give up 280 yards per game on the ground.

For the Titans, don't be surprised if this serves as the breakout for Bishop Sankey. He's averaging more than five yards per carry and presents more upside than Shonn Greene. John Glennon of The Tennessean passed along remarks from coach Ken Whisenhunt on his radio show about the situation.

"You will see (more reps for Sankey). That's coming," he said. "And I think you'll see more of that earlier in the game this week."

Add that to a Browns backfield that's expecting to add Ben Tate back into the rotation after overcoming a knee injury, and all signs point to both offenses being able to move the ball. It will likely go down to the wire, but it should go over.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots

Between the way the Patriots played last week and the fact that the Bengals have not allowed more than 16 points in three games, under is the gut reaction here. Alas, there's an intangible feeling that just when everybody starts to count out New England, it will put together a vintage performance.

Suddenly, after a blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Patriots have gone from contenders to pretenders in the minds of many. But Lance McAlister of ESPN 1530 provides a stat that really showcases the consistent greatness of New England over the past decade or so:

The knowledge of that past success throws this game, both in terms of the over/under and picking a winner, into the mystery category. The question is whether this is truly the beginning of the end for the Pats or just a sluggish start that will be followed by a major rebound.

Ultimately, taking the under is the safer choice due to New England's offensive woes as well as its ability to slow down Cincinnati's passing game. That said, it wouldn't be a total shock if the Patriots pick up a statement win and push it over.