NFL Predictions Week 5: Updated Spread Picks and Underrated Matchups to Watch

Not all NFL games are created equal.

In the mind of the public, that is. The hype machine grabs a hold of one or two key matchups each week and barrels on down the tracks to unpredictable results, for better or worse.

Some of it has to do with nationally televised games. New York-Washington was supposed to be fun last week, right? Thursday Night Football was decided by 31 points. Fast forward to the Kansas City-New England contest on Monday Night Football. The margin there was 27.

The point is, just because a game is getting hype does not mean it will deliver. Fans should approach viewing habits as they do betting habits—with caution and only after plenty of homework.

The most underrated matchups of Week 5 reside below after a look at the full schedule.

NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Chicago at Carolina	CAR (-3)	Carolina	Chicago's defense is downright not talented enough to capitalize on a hobbled Carolina backfield.
Cleveland at Tennessee	TEN (-2.5)	Cleveland	Tennessee is arguably the worst team in the league, while Cleveland had a bye week to prepare.
St. Louis at Philadelphia	PHI (-7.5)	Philadelphia	Chip Kelly's offense will not find it difficult to rediscover balance and productivity against the leaky St. Louis defense.
Atlanta at NY Giants	NYG (-4)	NY Giants	Eli Manning and Co. have finally wrapped their brains around the new, efficient offense. Atlanta's defensive line and offensive line are a mess.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	NO (-11)	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay looks better with Mike Glennon under center, but few escape New Orleans with a win.
Houston at Dallas	DAL (-6)	Dallas	See analysis below.
Buffalo at Detroit	DET (-7.5)	Detroit	Detroit is arguably the best team in the league thanks to a strong run defense and a potent offense.
Baltimore at Indianapolis	IND (-3.5)	Baltimore	Indianapolis has yet to beat a credible opponent, while Baltimore has won three straight and looks great offensively.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville	PIT (-7)	Pittsburgh	Blake Bortles in his first home NFL start will cause issues, but the Pittsburgh attack is too talented to lose.
Arizona at Denver	DEN (-7.5)	Denver	Unless Carson Palmer comes back and is in great form, Peyton Manning will eventually overtake a strong defense.
Kansas City at San Francisco	SF (-6.5)	San Francisco	San Francisco will be able to take advantage of a coaching staff that struggles to implement its best players.
NY Jets at San Diego	SD (-7)	San Diego	See analysis below.
Cincinnati at New England	CIN (-2)	Cincinnati	Cincinnati is the hottest team in the league at the moment and gets a reeling New England club on a short week.
Seattle at Washington (Mon., Oct. 6)	SEA (-7.5)	Seattle	Kirk Cousins was exposed last week, the beginning of a trend that only gets worse upon a visit from Seattle.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 6 p.m. ET, Oct. 2.

Underrated Matchups

Houston at Dallas (-6)

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

What is better than an in-state rivalry? 

Just kidding, but really, this one figures to be a good time as a potent offense ripe for an occasional implosion goes up against a strong defense led by a player who is perhaps downright the best in the league.

For those who have paid Houston no mind, the Texans are 3-1, by the way. Yes, one year removed from losing 14 in a row. Thank Ryan Fitzpatrick for that. (Kidding.)

Dallas has rattled off three straight wins not because it fixed its defense—that seemingly will never happen at this point—but because the staff has committed itself to the run to take the pressure off Tony Romo.

Lead back DeMarco Murray is one of the best in the NFL at the moment, totaling 534 yards and five touchdowns on a 5.4 yard-per-carry average. He will need to play to that level or better Sunday to keep J.J. Watt honest and away from Romo.

To date, Watt already has two sacks, three tackles for loss and even took an interception back for a touchdown last week. Romo stressed the importance of shutting down Watt to Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle recently:

"

I see a dynamic player that might be the best player that we go against all season. He’s very disruptive. He makes the game-changing plays every game I see. It’s going to be a great test for us to somehow find a way. You’re not going to stop him; you just have to hope that you minimize his chances to change the game.

"

Fortunately for the Cowboys, the Texans are not prone to scoring a bunch of points without running back Arian Foster, who is noncommittal on his status for the contest. Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick has been as advertised—a game manager who has 902 yards and five touchdowns and interceptions.

Still, this one is worth a watch thanks to the battle of wills that is the Cowboys offense against a Houston defense with a rare player who sells a show on his own. Watt may not win it on his own Sunday, but he will make a show of it again.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Texans 20

New York Jets at San Diego (-7)

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

What's that? San Diego is one of the NFL's best, while the New York Jets are predictably mediocre? 

Right, but who in the world does not love a quarterback controversy?

Rex Ryan, for one. Geno Smith, Ryan's last-ditch effort to save his job, has stumbled out of the gate once again with a bit of the turnover bug en route to 922 yards and four touchdowns to five interceptions.

The man known as Michael Vick continues to breathe down his neck, although Ryan does not anticipate a change under center during the team's trip to the West Coast, per Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News:

Optimism goes a long way, but these Chargers are no joke. The team averages 25.5 points per game while allowing 15.8. This is a Chargers team with a single loss by a single point, and the way Philip Rivers and Co. spent time getting over a single loss was by beating up on the defending champion Seattle Seahawks.

Rivers is still in Comeback Player of the Year mode, as one can glean from his ridiculous 70.1 completion percentage that has birthed 1,155 yards and nine touchdowns to one interception.

New York happens to rank in the top 10 against the pass and touts the league's best run defense, but San Diego ranks just outside of the top 10 against the pass and inside of it against the rush.

In short, all quarterbacks involved have a tall task ahead in what should be one of the standout games from the late slate. It should go without saying, though, that in this sort of matchup, one should feel safer with Rivers than Smith.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Jets 14

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).