Week 5 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

We are through four weeks of the NFL season, which is a large enough sample size to determine one thing—betting on these games is incredibly difficult.

One week, the Green Bay Packers offense looks lost; the next, it looks Super Bowl-ready. One week, the Kansas City Chiefs are getting manhandled at the line of scrimmage by the Tennessee Titans; a few weeks later, they are dominating the New England Patriots.

Even the Dallas Cowboys, who were the butt of so many jokes after Week 1, look like a legitimate playoff threat.

Perhaps we can offer a little help. Here is the latest set of predictions using the point spreads for the Week 5 slate of NFL games. Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark as of Wednesday evening.

Matchup	Point Spread	Prediction Against Spread
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers	GB -7.5	Packers
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers	CAR -2.5	Bears
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans	TEN -1	Browns
St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -7.5	Eagles
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants	NYG -4	Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints	NO -11	Saints
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys	DAL -7	Texans
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions	DET -9	Lions
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts	IND -3	Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars	PIT -7	Steelers
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos	DEN -8	Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers	SF -7	49ers
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers	SD -7	Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots	EVEN	Bengals
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins	SEA -8.5	Seahawks

Close Calls

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

This pick was much closer than some would imagine, especially with the points the Minnesota Vikings are getting.

After all, the Green Bay Packers rank dead last in the league against the run, and Minnesota’s rushing attack looks suddenly resurgent behind the two-headed monster of Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon.

McKinnon ran for 135 yards against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4, while Asiata added 78 yards on the ground and three touchdowns. Both should have their way against the vulnerable Packers front.

Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com discussed Green Bay’s issues against the run following the Packers’ win over the Chicago Bears:

"

After giving up 235 yards rushing -- the third-highest total since Dom Capers took over as defensive coordinator in 2009 -- the Packers found themselves dead last in the league, allowing an inexcusable 176.0 yards per game, through Sunday's Week 4 games. 

Lest you thought the Bears were a rushing juggernaut, you should know this: Before Sunday, they ranked 32nd in the league in rushing yards per game.

"

We are still leaning toward the Packers here, though, largely because Teddy Bridgewater is working on a short week after suffering an ankle injury against Atlanta. He looked ready to take the offense and run with it, but the rookie would be more effective with additional recovery time.

Plus, the Packers are at home, and the offense appeared to finally click in Week 4 against the Bears. The combination of Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb is as good as any you'll find in the NFL, and the Packers finished every drive in Week 4 with at least a field-goal attempt.

Each receiver also added two touchdowns.

The Vikings will be able to move the ball on the ground, but it won’t be enough to keep up with the high-octane Green Bay offense. Chicago ran effectively against the Packers and didn’t have a chance in the second half. 

We could see more of the same Thursday.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

Anyone who watched the Patriots get dismantled on the road against the Chiefs probably thinks this could be a blowout as well, but that was a special atmosphere. New England and veteran Tom Brady will look to bounce back this week at home after the embarrassing loss, and that could be a problem for the Cincinnati Bengals.

However, the numbers just don’t back it up, even if this game is in New England.

Brady is a measly 29th in the league with a 79.1 passer rating, and he threw two interceptions and lost a fumble in his team’s loss to Kansas City. New England as a whole is 29th in the league in total offense (298.5 yards a game), while the Bengals are giving up a league-best 11 points a game.

The Bengals beat the Patriots last year and held New England to a measly six points.

Bill Belichick discussed Cincinnati during his weekly press conference: “They have a lot of good players. They're well-coached. They're tough, they're physical, they're explosive. It's been a while since I've seen a team that's as complete as they are.”

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

That’s the thing about Cincinnati. It is largely overlooked in discussions of the best teams in the NFL, but the Bengals are loaded on offense to go along with that shut-down defense. There is a reason this is the last undefeated team in the AFC.

Andy Dalton has 722 passing yards, A.J. Green is one of the best players in league and got the bye week to rest an injured foot, and Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill form a solid one-two punch in the backfield.

Still, it will be the defense that rules the day Sunday. Cincinnati’s stout defense had to like what it saw Monday from New England and will make life miserable for the struggling Brady in Week 5. 

This will be close for three quarters based on the game’s location alone, but the Bengals are the better team.

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