2009 AL MVP: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Mark Teixiera Or... Ben Zobrist?

The 2009 AL MVP should have some of the best competition it has seen in years.  The Minnesota duo of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau will again get consideration.  New York's prized $161 million first baseman Mark Teixiera has been as good as advertised.  Even Detroit's Miguel Cabrera and Boston's Jason Bay have had their moments. 

But this year's MVP has the chance to be someone who wasn't even a starter to begin the season.

That would be Tampa Bay's Ben Zobrist.

Who is that?

At some point or another this season, fans, managers and players alike have been forced to ask themselves this question.  A son of a baptist preacher and favorite of Rays manager Joe Maddon is having a career year after coming off the bench and claiming a starting role.  Everyone expected him to slow down, and still everyone is waiting.

He's got a .304 average with 18 homers and 58 RBI.  Zobrist is on pace for a 33 home runs and 96 RBI this season.  Add in above average defense at second base and he's also on pace for 20 stolen bases, and that's five-tool talent. 

That sounds good until you realize his production is based on less than 500 at bats.  That means if he would have been starting from Day One, he'd be looking at a 40 HR, 115 RBI season in 600 AB. 

That's not just good. That's MVP-like.

A super utility player turned starter, Zobrist is showing that last year's 12 home runs in only 198 AB was not an aberration, but a sign of things to come.  But no one, including himself, could have expected this.

It isn't just the numbers, but how he's been getting them that should be raising eyebrows.  He has produced seven game-tying or go-ahead hits.  That's more than Teixiera, Mauer, and Morneau.  He has driven in 31 RBIs in the sixth inning or later, including nine in the ninth inning. 

That's over half of his RBIs in clutch situations.

The Rays have struggled this year with injuries.  B.J. Upton is still recovering from shoulder surgery.  Evan Longoria's hamstring problems have cut his productivity considerably.  Pat Burrell's neck woes had him miss near a month.  Ben Zobrist has been the one constant who has come through when the Rays needed him the most. 

The Rays are only four and a half games out of first in the AL East.  Six of Zobrist's seven game-tying or go-ahead hits resulted in wins.  Without Zobrist, the Rays would be 10 and a half games out of first, and essentially out of the playoffs.  Sounds like a "valuable" player to me, and when comparing him to other elite hitters, Zobrist appears most valuable.

Here he is by the numbers:

• First in AL in slug. pct.
• Second in OPS
• Third in OBP
• 46% of hits are extra base hits
• 14.6 AB/HR

Game-tying or go-ahead hits:

• April 17:  Go-ahead Grand Slam vs. White Sox (sixth inning)
• April 28:  Game-tying solo HR vs. MN (ninth inning)
• May  7:   Go-ahead solo HR vs. NYY (sixth inning)
• May 15:  Game-tying solo HR vs. CLE (eighth inning-pinch hit)
• May 21:  Game-tying two-run HR vs. OAK (ninth inning-pinch hit)
• June 13:  Go-ahead three-run HR vs. WAS (sixth inning)
• July   8:   Walk-off hit vs. TOR (ninth inning)