NFL Predictions Week 5: Can't-Miss Picks and Matchup Guide

Week 5 of the NFL season is shaping up to be a good one with plenty of intriguing matchups on paper, which could shift the league's balance of power in a major way.

Many of the games on the Week 5 slate feature middling point spreads, and that can be frustrating for bettors at times. With that said, it is starting to get a bit easier to evaluate teams since they have a body of work.

Things can change significantly from one week to the next in the NFL, but there are certainly a few games that stand out above the rest from a betting perspective.

Here is a full listing of straight-up and against-the-spread picks for Week 5, as well as a more in-depth breakdown of the top games worth betting on.

*Point spreads courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Date	Away	Home	Spread	Pick Straight Up	Pick ATS
Oct. 2	Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers	GB (-10)	GB	GB
Oct. 5	Chicago Bears	Carolina Panthers	CAR (-3)	CHI	CHI
Oct. 5	Cleveland Browns	Tennessee Titans	TEN (-2.5)	CLE	CLE
Oct. 5	St. Louis Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-7.5)	PHI	PHI
Oct. 5	Atlanta Falcons	New York Giants	NYG (-4)	NYG	NYG
Oct. 5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	New Orleans Saints	NO (-11)	NO	NO
Oct. 5	Houston Texans	Dallas Cowboys	DAL (-6)	DAL	HOU
Oct. 5	Buffalo Bills	Detroit Lions	DET (-7.5)	DET	DET
Oct. 5	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	IND (-3.5)	IND	IND
Oct. 5	Pittsburgh Steelers	Jacksonville Jaguars	PIT (-7)	PIT	JAC
Oct. 5	Arizona Cardinals	Denver Broncos	DEN (-8)	DEN	DEN
Oct. 5	Kansas City Chiefs	San Francisco 49ers	SF (-6.5)	SF	KC
Oct. 5	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers	SD (-7)	SD	SD
Oct. 5	Cincinnati Bengals	New England Patriots	CIN (-1.5)	CIN	CIN
Oct. 6	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins	SEA (-7.5)	SEA	SEA

New York Giants (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons

The New York Giants looked like one of the NFL's worst teams through two weeks, but that has changed in a hurry. The G-Men are 2-0 since then, and they will look to keep the positive momentum moving in the right direction when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

Atlanta is a classic case of a team that can be dominant at home but tends to struggle on the road. Quarterback Matt Ryan and the offense rack up plenty of points within the confines of the Georgia Dome, however, executing doesn't come as easily away from home for whatever reason.

The Falcons are 0-2 on the road so far this season, and that is one of the biggest reasons why their prospects in Week 5 aren't great. Perhaps even more important than that, though, is the depleted state of Atlanta's offensive line. Center Joe Hawley and tackle Lamar Holmes both suffered season-ending injuries in last week's loss to the Minnesota Vikings, according to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com:

That means Ryan will be less comfortable in the pocket, and he'll have less time to throw as well. One person who hasn't had that problem over the past couple weeks is Giants quarterback Eli Manning. He seems to be hitting his stride in New York's new offense largely because of his ability to get rid of the ball quickly.

Per Jordan Raanan of NJ.com, Manning made decisive passes in his 300-yard, four-touchdown performance against the Washington Redskins in Week 4:

The scary part is that Manning believes the offense has yet to truly hit its peak, according to CBS New York.

"I think we've gotten better every week," Manning said. "That's what we've got to continue to do. We can't be satisfied with where we are. There is still definitely room for improvement, room to get better. We're going to do that, we're going to stay hungry."

With the Falcons struggling on the road and ailing along the offensive line, the Giants have a massive advantage. Add in Manning's current hot streak, and this is shaping up to be a game in which New York wins by far more than the four-point spread seems to suggest.

Chicago Bears (+3) at Carolina Panthers

Al Bello/Getty Images

The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South last season due to their stout defense and just enough offense with quarterback Cam Newton at the helm. Carolina has faltered over the past two weeks, though, and it is staring a 2-3 start in the face if it can't turn things around against the Chicago Bears.

Chicago is an interesting team in its own right. It managed to beat the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets on the road but has suffered home losses to the Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers. That may be a coincidence more than anything, but it's important to note that the Bears' Week 5 game will be at Carolina.

The Panthers have allowed 37 and 38 points, respectively, over the past two weeks, which is a far cry from what fans saw last year. According to ESPN's Trey Wingo, Carolina has been especially poor at holding teams out of the end zone:

Also, the Panthers defense was second against the run in 2013, but it is currently near the bottom of the league in that regard, per ESPN.com's David Newton:

That is a major problem since Carolina doesn't have a high-volume offense. The Panthers generally like to run the ball, move the chains and let Newton make plays when necessary. Although the Bears are allowing nearly five yards per carry this season, it won't be easy for the Panthers to run on them.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Carolina will have to start undrafted rookie Darrin Reaves at running back due to injuries to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart:

The Panthers can't expect an unheralded rookie to truly shoulder the rushing load, which means there will be even more pressure on Newton to perform. Unfortunately for Newton, his receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired aside from rookie Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen.

To add to Carolina's myriad of concerns, its defense let Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco throw for 327 yards and three scores last week. Bears signal-caller Jay Cutler has guys like Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett to throw to, which is probably giving Panthers head coach Ron Rivera nightmares.

The Bears are the underdogs, but they have thrived in that role this season and have too many advantages over Carolina to lose on Sunday.

Detroit Lions (-7.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

Joe Sargent/Getty Images

Few teams have possessed more talent than the Detroit Lions over the past few years, and that talent is finally translating to winning football. The Lions are off to an impressive 3-1 start, and they are doing it with exceptional play on both sides of the ball.

Detroit's offensive excellence is obvious with Matthew Stafford under center and weapons such as Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Reggie Bush surrounding him. The Lions are truly excelling defensively, though, as they rank No. 1 in the NFL in total defense, according to the team's official Twitter account:

The Lions are allowing just 81 rushing yards per game, which will be significant in Week 5. Detroit will host a Bills team that figures to lean on running backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. After an atrocious performance by quarterback EJ Manuel in a Week 4 loss to the Houston Texans, head coach Doug Marrone has made the decision to start Kyle Orton in Week 5, per SportsCenter:

While Orton is a solid veteran who has proven capable of managing offenses effectively, he has never played a down in Buffalo's offensive system, and it is difficult to imagine Marrone asking him to go out and win games on his own.

Unfortunately for the Bills, Orton may be forced to throw more than the desired amount if Detroit's defense stands tall against the run. In that scenario, the Lions could then dial up the pressure against a quarterback who doesn't move particularly well in the pocket.

The Bills defense is the one thing that could keep them competitive in this game, but they had trouble slowing down Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers offense a couple weeks ago, so Stafford and Co. should have some success.

Making the move to Orton does give Buffalo some hope in the weak AFC East moving forward, but that won't manifest itself in an extremely tough road game against Detroit in Week 5.

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