Bleacher Report's Year-End MLB Award Predictions
Sometime in the last six months, we all blinked, and the 2014 Major League Baseball season flew by. So here we are, certainly in a state of bewilderment, to talk about awards season.
It's still about a month away, of course. There's also a whole postseason to be played in the meantime, one that got off to a stupendous start Tuesday night in Kansas City. Fortunately, we don't need any more time to pass to get on with predictions for who's going to win the major awards, specifically the big four in the American and National League: Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player.
But first, here's an important distinction to make: Making predictions is not the same as making picks. We're here to pick who's likely to win, which isn't necessarily the same as who should win.
Right then. Let's get on with it.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter, Baltimore Orioles
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Just like 1994 and 2004, this is a year ending in the number four. So of course Buck Showalter is going to win the Manager of the Year Award.
Mind you, Showalter does have more going for his Manager of the Year chances than just a silly coincidence. Above all, he had a darn good year for himself managing the Baltimore Orioles.
It's always good when a manager gets his team to surpass expectations. In leading the Orioles to a 96-66 record and an AL East title that basically nobody saw coming, Showalter did just that.
And it wasn't easy. The O's fought through a tough schedule and did it without Matt Wieters and Manny Machado for much of the year and with big-money free-agent signing Ubaldo Jimenez going "pluh." Also, their season was bookended by closer troubles in the beginning and Chris Davis' suspension at the end.
As Newsday's David Lennon put it: "Showalter always does a great job of doing more with less, finding the players that fit for him. He's a big reason why the Orioles won the division, which should earn him a third MOY award."
Pretty much. Better clear a space for No. 3, Buck. And I guess we'll see you again in 2024.
NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants
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Where Showalter is an easy choice for AL Manager of the Year, there's no easy choice in the National League. The guy with the best shot, however, is likely San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy.
Sure, you can take issue with how the Giants faltered after a 43-21 start. But given the kind of hardship they had to endure, it's borderline shocking that they won 88 games anyway.
Matt Cain finally broke. Brandon Belt and Angel Pagan missed most of the year with injuries. Sergio Romo stopped being a shutdown closer. Tim Lincecum struggled his way into the bullpen. Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Hudson both ran out of gas in the second half.
Bochy kept the Giants afloat despite all this. Along the way, he helped turn unheralded youngsters Joe Panik and Andrew Susac into not only regulars but productive regulars.
Another thing helping Bochy's case is that his top competition for the NL Manager of the Year is probably Pittsburgh Pirates skipper Clint Hurdle. As Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald noted, him winning it last year basically takes him out of the equation.
"Close call this year," he wrote, "but considering the other contender, Pittsburgh’s Clint Hurdle, won last year, Bochy gets the nod this year for another overachieving season."
This isn't exactly fair, but them's the breaks all the same.
AL Rookie of the Year: Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
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No contest, right?
Yeah, no contest.
It feels weird to refer to a 27-year-old veteran of eight Cuban National Series seasons as a "rookie." But the rules say Chicago White Sox slugger Jose Abreu is a rookie all the same. His numbers, meanwhile, say he just had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever.
Generally speaking, guys with zero MLB experience just don't hit .317 with a .964 OPS and 36 homers. In fact, Abreu is one of only three rookies in history to hit better than .315 with an OPS over .950 and at least 35 homers. The others: Albert Pujols in 2001 and Hal Trosky in 1934.
For that matter, even non-rookie 27-year-olds don't have years like that very often. The list consists of Abreu and then just 19 others.
It's doubtful that Abreu is going to be a unanimous choice for the Rookie of the Year, as surely some voters will take issue with the technical vs. realistic definitions of the word "rookie." But Abreu not winning the award is impossible to fathom. He was too good.
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NL Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds
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Full disclosure: This is one prediction even I can look at and say, "Eh...I don't know, man."
The NL Rookie of the Year race looks like a two-horse race between Cincinnati Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton and New York Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom, and the winds actually appear to be blowing in deGrom's direction.
With a 2.69 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 140.1 innings, deGrom finished with sexy numbers. Just as important, he has recency bias working for him after an excellent finish to the season.
However, it's possible the majority of voters could be on the same page as Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal in thinking that Hamilton's advantages lie in his strong body of work over a much larger sample size.
Whereas deGrom only made 22 starts, Hamilton played in 152 games. And though he hit only .250 with a .292 OBP, there's plenty of value in his 56 stolen bases and his superb defense in center field.
In other words: Maybe WAR's word should be taken for it. FanGraphs has Hamilton's WAR at 3.5 compared to 3.0 for deGrom.
That's not the final word on this argument, mind you. But maybe it'll be what sways the vote.
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
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The AL Cy Young race is a choice between a Klubot and a King. And my, what a tough choice it is.
Regardless of which direction you come from, Cleveland Indians right-hander Corey Kluber and Seattle Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez had almost equally excellent seasons. Both pitched a ton of innings, missed a ton of bats, limited walks and, naturally, kept a lot of runs off the board.
Kluber does have some legit advantages, though. Though he (235.2) and Hernandez (236) pitched roughly the same number of innings, Kluber tallied 21 more strikeouts and more WAR whether you ask Baseball-Reference.com or FanGraphs. To boot, he was impossibly hot down the stretch.
King Felix, however, has advantages that will likely tip the scales in his favor.
His 2.14 ERA is the big one. It not only led the AL but is also 30 points better than Kluber's 2.44. It also helps that Hernandez had more outings of at least seven innings and no more than two earned runs. And though Fielding Independent Pitching favors Kluber, fellow ERA estimators xFIP and SIERA favor Hernandez.
There's no wrong call in this race. Seriously. But I'd expect Hernandez to get the nod.
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
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So...is there any way I can just write "Yeah, next" and just move on?
No?
Oh, very well.
Here's the deal: Clayton Kershaw's going to win the National League Cy Young in a landslide. This is no overstatement, as the Los Angeles Dodgers ace southpaw led Major League Baseball in, well, everything.
With help from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, namely: ERA at 1.77, wins with 21, WHIP at 0.86, K/9 at 10.85, complete games with six, ERA+ at 197, FIP at 1.81, xFIP at 2.08 and SIERA at 2.09.
Yup. He did that. All of that.
Honestly, domination of this magnitude puts me on board with ESPN's Jayson Stark: "Let's have a Clayton Kershaw Award just for Kershaw, and give the rest of the league an actual chance to win the Cy Young."
Maybe next year, other National League pitchers. Maybe next year.
AL Most Valuable Player: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
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In 2014, Mike Trout wasn't as good as he was in 2012 and 2013. That should open the door for him to come up short in the AL MVP voting yet again.
But nah. It won't.
Reason No. 1: Even a lesser version of Trout is still amazing. Despite a bad strikeout habit, only 16 stolen bases and, according to the defensive metrics, subpar defense in center field, Trout still slashed .287/.377/.561 with 36 home runs while leading the league in runs and RBI.
Reason No. 2: Trout was clutch, too. He finished third behind Chris Davis and Buster Posey in OPS in high-leverage situations and co-led baseball in homers in high-leverage situations. One of those was arguably the home run of the 2014 season: his game-tying grand slam off Chris Sale in June.
Reason No. 3: His efforts didn't go for naught for a change. Trout led the Angels not only to an AL West title but MLB's best record.
Reason No. 4: After what happened in 2012 and 2013, you have to figure some voters might feel like Trout is owed an MVP and that this is an ideal chance to make sure he gets it.
It might still be debatable that Trout is hands down the best player in the game. That he's going to win the 2014 AL MVP, however, is practically a foregone conclusion.
NL Most Valuable Player: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
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The conventional wisdom regarding pitchers and the MVP is that a pitcher has to have a damn amazing season to even be in the discussion and damn important to his team to win it.
Well, we know all about the kind of season Clayton Kershaw had. It wasn't just amazing. It was historic. And if you believe WAR, both Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs say it made him the NL's top player.
And the Dodgers needed it. They were 23-4 in 27 games started by Kershaw and 71-64 in all other games. That's an 85-win pace, which would have left them short of the NL West title.
Hence at least two of the reasons there's plenty of support for Kershaw. Jayson Stark, Grantland's Jonah Keri, The Washington Post's Cindy Boren and The New York Times' Tyler Kepner are among those trumpeting his MVP cause, and he's even made a believer out of a rival manager.
"The guy's the best in the game," Giants skipper Bruce Bochy told MLB.com, adding, "I don't know if there's a more deserving MVP. Forget [the] Cy Young. I mean, those are 'stupid' numbers that he's putting up."
Look for Kershaw to add an MVP to his list of accomplishments, which will also feature three Cy Youngs, a Gold Glove, four ERA titles, two strikeout titles and four All-Star nods.
And the guy's still only 26.
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