Wisconsin Football: Game-by-Game Predictions for the Month of October
Marred by slow starts, bad finishes and flashes of stellar play nestled in between, the Wisconsin football team finds itself off to a 3-1 start. With cooler temperatures and Big Ten play blowing in off the shores of Lake Mendota, the Badgers find themselves with just three games in the month of October.
With two home games and one road game dotting their October schedule along with a second bye coming in the middle, the Badgers maintain an incredibly advantageous slate throughout the first two months.
Starting with their first trip to Ryan Field since 2009, where they haven't beaten the Northwestern Wildcats since 1999 in Evanston, the Badgers then come back home to face the high-scoring Illinois Fighting Illini. After a bye week, the Badgers take on the Maryland Terrapins during homecoming weekend to close out the month.
Let's take a look at how the Badgers will fare during their first three Big Ten games of the season.
Oct. 4 at Northwestern
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Two games into the 2014 season, it looked like more of the same for the Northwestern Wildcats. After starting the 2013 season 4-0, the Wildcats lost a heartbreaker to Ohio State with College GameDay on campus and proceeded to lose their next six.
With a 5-7 record in the rearview mirror, the Wildcats stumbled to a 0-2 start, with home losses to Cal and Northern Illinois. With a bleak outlook on the rest of the season, the Wildcats claimed their first victory in a home win against Western Illinois in rather unconvincing fashion.
But something strange happened last week in Happy Valley. Northwestern looked like a complete team, moving the chains and stuffing the run en route to a 29-6 victory over Penn State to match their conference win total from last season after just one game (It was that bad last year for the once-ranked Wildcats).
Returning home, Northwestern is riding a wave of optimism. Holding the Nittany Lions to just 50 yards on the ground, Northwestern's run defense will need to be just as good if not better to contain the two-headed monster of Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement as well as quarterback Tanner McEvoy.
After a less-than-stellar game against South Florida, particularly in the first half, the Badgers will look to claim their first Big Ten victory on their march back to Indianapolis with the West division crown.
Look for another slow start out of the Badgers as McEvoy is starting his first true road game. Quick passes to his favorite targets, wide receiver Alex Erickson and tight end Sam Arneson, will help to settle him down as the ground attack wears down the Wildcats' front seven.
After scratching out just a field goal in the first quarter and with the Wildcats driving, a poorly thrown ball by Northwestern quarterback Trevor Siemian gives the Badgers a jolt of energy as they strike twice in the second quarter to take a 17-3 lead into the break.
In the second half, McEvoy is asked to do very little with his arm as Gordon, Clement and McEvoy all use their legs to keep the chains moving and keep Northwestern's offense off the field. Both running backs will eclipse 100 yards rushing, and McEvoy will have his second straight turnover-free day.
Northwestern's offense will look more competent in the second half as it is forced to air it out more, but it will only be able to scratch across a touchdown and a field goal. With a slightly altered prediction from my game preview, Northwestern will still lose by double-digits.
Wisconsin 30, Northwestern 13
Oct. 11 vs. Illinois
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Illinois has looked really good on offense at home this season, leading to a 3-0 record in the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium in Champaign. The bad news is that on the road, the Illini are 0-2, getting outscored 89-33 in those two contests.
Illinois has looked far from a world-beater in its three wins against Youngstown State, Western Kentucky and Texas State. The Illini won the last two by just a possession. In their wins, the team is averaging 37.3 points per game, while in losses, the team is averaging just 16.5 points per game.
Under quarterback Wes Lunt, the team is 3-1, with Lunt posting near-video game numbers: 1,237 yards while completing 65.8 percent of his passes to go along with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. In his one loss, Lunt struggled against a good Washington defense, going 16-of-25 for 230 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
Last week against Nebraska, Lunt sat out with a sprained knee and the Fighting Illini suffered the consequences, though even with Lunt in, they wouldn't have been able to stop the Cornhuskers' rushing attack.
That's a perfect segue for talking about this game. As good as Illinois' passing offense has been, averaging 309.4 yards per game, good for 24th in the country, its run defense has been just as bad, conceding 236.2 yards per game, 112th in the country.
Melvin Gordon, Corey Clement and Tanner McEvoy will all have big days on the ground for the Badgers, with Gordon eclipsing 100 yards in the first half while Clement rips off his first pair of big runs this season.
Illinois' passing attack will attempt to fling the ball all over the field to try to stretch out the Badgers secondary, which up to this point hasn't quite lived up to expectations. But Sojourn Shelton, who has yet to record an interception this season after picking up four last season, will snag his first of the year.
Linebackers Derek Landisch, Joe Schobert and Vince Biegel will hound Lunt all day with the team picking up four sacks on the day, including one from Chikwe Obasih.
This game will feature a lot of points. It will also feature the return of Joel Stave, who has suffered through a bout of the "yips" but claims he is back and ready to go, as reported by Adam Rittenberg of ESPN. With this game in hand by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, look for Stave to see a couple of series.
Wisconsin 51, Illinois 24
Oct. 25 vs. Maryland
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In their first season in the Big Ten, while everyone thought they would be a better addition in basketball than football, the Maryland Terrapins have established themselves as a legitimate contender in the East division through their first five games.
While inconsistencies have plagued them at times, Maryland was one play away from being 5-0 after losing 40-37 on a last-second 47-yard field goal by West Virginia. In their Big Ten opener, the Terrapins throttled Indiana in Bloomington, who were coming off a massive win over a ranked Missouri team.
But the true test for the Terrapins comes in their next five games, a veritable murderer's row of teams lined up one after another. They get Ohio State and Iowa at home before traveling to Madison, and then they take a trip to Happy Valley to take on Penn State before closing the stretch out with a home game against Michigan State.
If the Terrapins can squeeze two wins out of that stretch, they have a good chance to go 5-3 in the Big Ten in their first season as they close out with games at Michigan and then a season-ending tilt at home against Rutgers.
But in their first tough road test in the Big Ten, Maryland will show that it's not quite ready to compete on a week-in, week-out basis.
Sixth-year senior C.J. Brown has been exactly what the Terrapins needed, picking up 996 yards through the air while completing 58.0 percent of his passes to go along with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. He is also the team's leading rusher, running the ball 56 times for 266 yards and five touchdowns.
Brown has a pair of NFL-caliber wide receivers to throw to on the outside in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long, both of whom broke their legs last season in a series of unfortunate events. Diggs has 29 catches for 398 yards and two scores while Long has 21 receptions for 250 yards and a score this season.
In their first trip to Madison, Maryland's poor run defense will be exposed as Gordon, Clement and McEvoy will force the Terrapins to commit one too many defenders in the box. That, while frustrating at times, will give McEvoy plenty of space to throw.
This game won't be a blowout as Shelton and fellow cornerbacks Darius Hillary, Devin Gaulden and Derrick Tindal have not shown an ability to cover receivers as good as Diggs and Long (look at the LSU game for confirmation of that).
At the end of the day, the front seven will wreak havoc on Brown and make drive-killing plays in the backfield. Furthermore, Maryland native and All-Big Ten offensive tackle Rob Havenstein will play like a man on a mission as hole after hole opens up along the line to spring Gordon and Clement for big plays.
Wisconsin 31, Maryland 20
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