At Quarter Mark of Season, Everything We Thought We Knew About the AFC Is Wrong

The AFC was supposed to be a two-team conference, with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos facing little resistance en route to an AFC Championship Game rematch.

Instead, the Broncos don't look nearly as dominant as they did in 2013, and the Patriots lie in ruin.

The Houston Texans have gotten almost nothing from Jadeveon Clowney and lead the AFC South, the Cincinnati Bengals defense is way better without Mike Zimmer and Michael Johnson, and Philip Rivers is the best quarterback in the NFL. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders...

...yeah, they're terrible.

But everything else we thought we knew about the AFC is wrong.

The Pats Own the East

The Patriots have earned at least a share of the AFC East crown in 12 of the 13 seasons since Tom Brady took over as starting quarterback. With Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski healthy again and blockbuster free-agent signee Darrelle Revis shoring up the defense, the Patriots seemed set to cruise to yet another division championship.

The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets were supposed to be mediocre teams with developing quarterbacks, coaches on the hot seat and uncertain futures. That's still largely true—but the Patriots' collapse throws a monkey-wrench into everything.

The Dolphins' season-opening triumph over the Patriots and Week 4 decimation of the Raiders proved they're better and hotter than Brady's outfit. We'll have a lot better idea of their true strength after their upcoming bye week; they'll face the San Diego Chargers and the top three NFC North teams in the subsequent five weeks.

The Bills surprised everyone with a huge win over the Chicago Bears in Soldier Field and a more-important win over the Dolphins in Week 2. With the seventh-best scoring defense in the NFL, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, newly promoted starting quarterback Kyle Orton just needs to guide the offense to a few more big plays and fewer mistakes than the now-benched EJ Manuel.

Geno Smith surprised many by taking a big step forward in his second season, but even that hasn't been enough for a Jets ownership and fanbase demanding playoff-caliber football.

That they gave the Green Bay Packers, Bears and Detroit Lions all they could handle shows the Jets have the talent to finish the season strong. Even if the franchise collapses around Smith, though, the Jets always find a way to steal a win from a division opponent or two. 

Instead of being a foregone conclusion, the AFC East is a four-way coin flip.

The Bengals Will Bungle the AFC North

At the end of the 2013 season, it looked like the Bengals' championship window might have closed. Quarterback Andy Dalton faltered again (yet the team signed him to a long-term extension), heralded defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer left to skipper the Minnesota Vikings and key players along both lines left in free agency.

Instead, the Bengals defense is the best in football. In fact, its NFL-best 11.0 points-per-game-allowed scoring average would be one of the best season marks in league history. Dalton leads the NFL in average yards per attempt, and the Bengals are one of just two undefeated teams after Week 4. With their depth and talent on both sides of the ball, they're not just the team to beat in the AFC North; they're title contenders.

Hot on their heels are the Baltimore Ravens, who boast the NFL's second-best scoring defense. Their average rate of 15 points allowed per game is on par with many of the great Ravens units of the 2000s—but they're almost as strong on offense.

Justin Forsett is leading a reshuffled running back corps and the NFL with a whopping 5.8 yards-per-carry average.

Receiver Steve Smith, cut by the Carolina Panthers franchise with whom he's synonymous, is playing the best football of his life (and that's saying something). He's on pace for a stunning 100 receptions, 1,716 yards and 12 touchdowns, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Quarterback Joe Flacco is on pace to match (or exceed) his career highs in completion percentage and NFL passer efficiency rating, while posting career lows in interception and sack rates.

The Ravens' only loss? That's right: a 23-16 nail-biter to the Bengals.

Mark Duncan/Associated Press

The Cleveland Browns' messy quarterback situation and depleted receiver corps led us to believe they'd struggle in 2014. Instead, they've taken the Ravens, New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers down to last-second field goals in each of their three games.

Journeyman quarterback Brian Hoyer not only held off first-round pick Johnny Manziel, but he's led the NFL's 12th-best scoring offense. The defense is ranked 23rd in average points-per-game allowed, but it has the talent to play better than that.

The Steelers were an enigma coming into the season, and at 2-2, we don't know much more about them. They were dismantled by the Ravens in Week 2, 26-6, then looked tremendous in a 37-14 takedown of the Panthers in Week 3, before falling apart late against the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4. 

Finally, though, the Steelers have reloaded with young talent. Tailback Le'Veon Bell has undergone an incredible transformation, shedding weight and gaining what seems like a step or two to the hole and even more in the open field; he's No. 2 in the NFL in rushing yards. Receiver Antonio Brown has come into his own, too, ranking fourth or better in the NFL in receptions, yards and touchdowns.

The Colts Will Triumph by Default

The Colts are a good team, and that might be underselling them. They're the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and quarterback Andrew Luck is playing lights-out. He's in the top five of the NFL in passer efficiency rating, ESPN Total QBR and adjusted net yards per attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Their defense is lagging in the middle of the pack, allowing an average of 23.8 points per game—but when you're scoring an average of 34 points per game, allowing 23.8 is A-OK. With all that said, they're looking up at the 3-1 Houston Texans.

The Texans were supposed to rely heavily on the addition of rookie pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney, but Clowney's torn lateral meniscus has forced him to miss nearly all of the season to date.

In the meantime, partner-in-crime J.J. Watt has been in his usual monstrous form, already garnering MVP mentions. The Texans' sixth-ranked scoring defense will keep them in a lot of games, even without Clowney.

New quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been, well, Ryan Fitzpatrick, throwing touchdowns and interceptions at an equal rate (4.5 percent). Second-year receiver DeAndre Hopkins has been a revelation. Racking up 291 yards and three touchdowns on just 18 catches, he's been the perfect deep-threat complement to Texans icon Andre Johnson.

The Texans will have a tough October, facing the Dallas Cowboys, Colts, Steelers and Tennessee Titans. They should get Clowney back somewhere in that stretch, though.

Things only get easier from there. After their Week 10 bye, they face the Browns, Titans and Jaguars twice. They'll almost certainly make the Colts work for the division crown all the way through December.

The Jaguars, who looked like a team on the rise at the end of 2013, have been a full-scale disaster. They're second-to-last in scoring offense and dead-last in scoring defense. Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles and the young receivers give Jaguars fans reasons to hope for the future, but there's no hope for 2014.

The 1-3 Titans? Well, I guess we knew three things about the AFC.

The Broncos Are Going to Win It All

Per Odds Shark, the Broncos are the clear favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for the second straight season.

Why wouldn't they be? Peyton Manning is coming off the best year any quarterback ever had, and the Broncos aggressively upgraded the defense in the draft and free agency. After an incredibly tough three-game slate against the Colts, Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks, the Broncos are 2-1.

There's cause for concern, though: The Broncos don't look anywhere near as potent on offense and aren't tremendously improved on defense. After racking up a historic 37.9 points per game in 2013, they've averaged an 11th-best 25.0 so far this season. The defense, which let up 24.9 points per game last season, is allowing a similar average of 22.3 this year.

The Oakland Raiders, after a wild offseason reloading their offensive line and defensive front seven with veterans, have already fired their head coach, per CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are absolutely on fire. A season-opening brain fart against the Titans and a close road loss to the Broncos in Week 2 mean they're only 2-2, but their Monday Night Football decimation of the Patriots was a blazing declaration that they're not going away.

Neither of these teams, though, put up a better first quarter of the season than the San Diego Chargers, who sit atop the West with a 3-1 record.

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Quarterback Philip Rivers is putting up better numbers than anybody, leading the NFL in passer efficiency rating and adjusted net yards per attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. He's No. 2 in ESPN Total QBR and in the top five in completion, touchdown and interception rate, too. As a result, the Chargers are ranked ninth in scoring offense, despite missing starting tailback Ryan Mathews.

Defensively, the Chargers are even better, allowing an fifth-best average of 15.8 points per game. Their sixth-most productive pass rush already has 10 sacks on the season, and they've allow a ninth-lowest average of 97.3 rushing yards per game.

If Rivers keeps up this career year, they'll be in the driver's seat all season. Their Week 15 home rematch against the Broncos and regular-season finale in Arrowhead will have massive implications for the AFC Wild Card race, the AFC West championship, home-field advantage and the entire conference.

What Does It All Mean?

Potentially very little.

As we move on to the next three quarters of the season, some of the surprises will level off, some of the hot starts will cool down and some of the disappointing players and teams will warm up. While a wide swath of AFC teams fight over six playoff spots, the competition won't be anything like what it is on the other side of the bracket.

Perennial contenders like the San Francisco 49ers, Bears and Packers are very much alive in the NFC playoff race; upstarts like the Arizona Cardinals and Lions are actually a game ahead of their divisional rivals.

The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys are on serious tears, and the always-tight NFC South has four teams all within a game of each other. Even surprisingly soft-looking teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints have more talent on both sides of the ball than many of the AFC contenders.

Above all, though, the reigning NFL champion Seattle Seahawks look even better now than in 2013—and it's hard to see how any AFC team will top them.