LSU Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers: Betting Odds, Analysis and Prediction

The Auburn Tigers will play their first SEC game since their season opener when they host the LSU Tigers in a huge conference showdown Saturday. Auburn lost 35-21 at LSU last year as a 17-point underdog before running the table and starting a string of 13 wins against the spread (ATS) in 15 games.

Point spread: Tigers opened as nine-point favorites at Jordan-Hare Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report). 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 40.0-23.3 Tigers

Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers have won the last three meetings with Auburn along with six of the past seven, so they know what it takes to get a victory in this series. LSU has been favored in each of the last three games between the teams, outscoring Auburn by a combined score of 93-41, including a 12-10 victory at Jordan-Hare Stadium in 2012.

The Tigers bounced back from a 34-29 home loss to Mississippi State two weeks ago by pummeling New Mexico State 63-7 as a 43-point favorite behind a career-high 122 yards and two touchdowns from freshman running back Leonard Fournette. LSU backup quarterback Brandon Harris also came off the bench to throw three touchdown passes and run for another couple of scores in the rout, and he appears to be in line to start this week.

Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread

Auburn is playing as well as any team in the country right now despite failing to cover the spread in the last two games. The Tigers are coming off a 45-17 victory against Louisiana Tech last week, falling just short of covering as 32-point favorites.

Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall threw for 166 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 105 more in the win over the Bulldogs, and he will be looking to atone for last year’s performance against LSU when he had two interceptions and no touchdowns.

The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games, including 4-0 against the line when pitted opposite SEC opponents during that stretch.

Smart Pick

Auburn had been on an amazing 13-0 run ATS before dropping its last two. While that is not a huge cause for concern, it still means the team is not playing at the same high level as last year. LSU’s quarterback change to Harris could be just the spark the team needs to start playing better offensively.

Harris nearly completed a crazy comeback against Mississippi State two weeks ago, and it will be difficult for Auburn to prepare for him in this spot. Auburn covered the spread in the last two meetings as an underdog, and LSU can do the same thing. Look for the visiting Tigers to keep this one within a touchdown.

Trends

• LSU is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games when playing Auburn.
• Auburn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games at home.

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates and get the free odds tracker app.