Tomorrow's All-Stars: Predicting the 10 Best Starting Pitchers in 5 Years

From Julio Urias to Jon Gray, the minor leagues are flooded with impact arms. 

The mound is where this five-part series known as "Tomorrow's All-Stars" begins. Over the next month, the series will sift through the minors to find the players who will be the best starters, relievers and outfielders in five years' time. 

For now, the focus is on the arms. Young and talented starting pitchers are one of the most valuable assets in baseball. As a result, the starters who top this list aren't just the best players at their position but also some of the highest-rated prospects in all of the minor leagues. 

A Quick Look Back

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Back in the spring, Part I of this series combed through the minor leagues to unearth the best catchers and infielders of the future. 

So, before Part II kicks off, here's a rundown of what was dug up:

• Catchers
• First basemen
• Second basemen
• Third basemen
• Shortstops 

A Word on the Criteria

LM Otero/Associated Press

The purpose of this series is to focus on the prospects. 

That means you won't find Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez on the top 10 that follows. You won't find any players who have already made their big league debuts, as they've been excluded from consideration. 

Of course, starters like Kershaw and Hernandez will still be dealing in five years' time. So, here's a quick look at some of baseball's top arms who would have cracked the list had they met the criteria. 

• Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
• Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics 
• Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
• Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
• Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins
• Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
• Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals 
• Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
• David Price, Detroit Tigers

Honorable Mentions

Before we get started with the top 10, here are a few of the starting pitching prospects who just missed the grade:

• Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles*
• Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
• Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays*
• Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals 
• Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins
• Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins

*Note: Dylan Bundy and Daniel Norris have been included as honorable mentions because both pitchers lost their eligibility for this list after briefly appearing in the big leagues. 

10. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Age: 22

Highest Minor League Level: Triple-A

2014 Stats: N/A

The Track Record

Jameson Taillon missed out on all of the 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. 

Still, the future is extremely bright for the 22-year-old, whom the Pittsburgh Pirates drafted with the No. 2 pick in 2010. Back in spring training, Gerrit Cole told Adam Berry of MLB.com that while both starters can throw gas, Taillon already possess the superior curveball. Considering how much success Cole has enjoyed in his first two big league seasons, that's some high praise. 

As you'll see, Taillon isn't the only Pirates prospect who cracks this list and could soon be joining Cole at PNC Park. 

When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues

Taillon has been throwing on flat ground since the beginning of September but is unlikely to be in the mix for a rotation spot next spring, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. General manager Neal Huntington told Biertempfel that Taillon needs to "build some innings." After a stop in Triple-A to begin the season, Taillon could join Pittsburgh's rotation by the middle of 2015.

9. Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox

Age: 22

Highest Minor League Level: Triple-A

2014 Stats: 17-5, 2.94 ERA, 26 GS, 3 CG, 159 IP, 121 H, 52 ER, 10 HR, 59 BB, 170 K

The Track Record

Since the Boston Red Sox landed Henry Owens in the compensation round of the 2011 draft, the left-hander has steadily climbed the ranks.

Owens began the 2014 season by dismantling Double-A, as he posted a 14-4 mark with a 2.60 ERA in 20 outings. Thanks to that showing, the 22-year-old earned a trip to Triple-A, where he made six starts to close out the season.  

Owens' most effective pitch is his changeup, but his curveball isn't far behind, according to Ian Browne of MLB.com. The starter told Browne that he also has plenty of confidence in his fastball. "I feel like all three of my pitches are ready to play at the next level. It's just a matter of executing and competing at the same time."

Owens will soon have the chance to prove that point. 

When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues

With just 38 Triple-A innings on his resume, it looks like Owens will return to the Pawtucket Red Sox to begin the 2015 season. While a strong first half could earn him the call to Fenway Park by the All-Star break, the prudent move would be to keep Owens in the minors throughout the year and to bring him up in September. 

8. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

Age: 21

Highest Minor League Level: Double-A

2014 Stats: 7-10, 4.74 ERA, 27 G, 26 GS, 136.2 IP, 114 H, 72 ER, 18 HR, 74 BB, 140 K

The Track Record

The 2014 season didn't go as planned for Robert Stephenson.

The 2011 first-round pick posted a 7-10 record and an ERA just south of five in 27 starts for the Cincinnati Reds Double-A affiliate. Stephenson also piled up 74 walks in 136.2 innings. While those numbers were unsightly, there's a lot to like about the 21-year-old.

Stephenson demonstrated a consistent ability to miss bats, as he posted a ratio of 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. The right-hander can also hit triple digits on the radar gun, according to MLB.com. 

When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues

Stephenson's struggles in Double-A mean where he'll begin 2015 is up in the air. The starter should aim to spend most of the year in Triple-A, and a successful season with the Reds' top minor league club will set him up to open up the 2016 season in Cincinnati's rotation. 

7. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox

Age: 21

Highest Minor League Level: Triple-A

2014 Stats: 0-0, 2.92 ERA, 9 G, 6 GS, 24.2 IP, 20 H, 8 ER, 13 BB, 38 K

The Track Record

Carlos Rodon is ascending rapidly through the Chicago White Sox's minor league system. 

After the White Sox selected the left-hander with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 MLB draft in June, the starter made a couple of quick stops in Rookie Ball and High-A before ending the season with Chicago's Triple-A club. 

Wherever he's pitched, the 21-year-old has racked up punchouts. Rodon's go-to weapon is his slider, as the White Sox director of amateur scouting Doug Laumann explained via Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago: “It’s certainly a dominant pitch—and that’s not to take anything away from his fastball and his changeup, both of which are plus pitches—but the slider is certainly a dominant pitch for him.”

In three Triple-A starts, Rodon, who throws a fastball in the mid-90s, totaled 18 strikeouts in 12 frames. 

When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues

It's only a matter of time before Rodon arrives at U.S. Cellular Field. 

Back in August, White Sox general manager Rick Hahn told Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago that Rodon was under consideration for a September call-up, but ultimately that never happened.

An impressive showing next spring could earn Rodon a spot on the 2015 Opening Day roster. A more realistic target would be for Rodon to make the jump around the All-Star break. 

6. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Age: 21

Highest Minor League Level: High-A

2014 Stats: 12-5, 1.74 ERA, 23 GS, 124.1 IP, 74 H, 24 ER, 3 HR, 54 BB, 157 K

The Track Record

Tyler Glasnow carved up the Florida State League in 2014.

The 21-year-old reeled off a 12-5 record with a 1.74 ERA while limiting the opposition to a .174 average. Those numbers won Glasnow the Pirates' minor league pitcher of the year award for the second consecutive season. The right-hander also earned a trip to the prestigious Arizona Fall League, where he'll be tested against some of the best hitting prospects in baseball. 

In two seasons in the minors, Glasnow has posted a 1.94 ERA in 59 outings. Over that time, the starter has recorded 365 strikeouts in 264 innings of work. 

When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues

After dominating in High-A, the next step for Glasnow will be making the leap to Double-A to start the 2015 season. The goal for Glasnow should be to earn a late-season promotion to the Indianapolis Indians, the Pirates' top minor league affiliate. If he can accomplish that, he'll be on track to join the Pirates by the summer of 2016. 

5. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Age: 22

Highest Minor League Level: Triple-A

2014 Stats: 3-7, 4.45 ERA, 18 GS, CG, 83 IP, 76 H, 41 ER, 2 HR, 49 BB, 75 K

The Track Record

Archie Bradley's 2014 season was interrupted by an elbow injury, which left him on the sidelines for two months. 

Once he did return to the mound, his numbers were less than impressive. In his final 10 starts, the 22-year-old posted a 2-3 record with a 4.88 ERA. The most glaring issue for the starter was a general lack of command. In 83 innings, Bradley dished out 49 free passes.

It's also worth noting that Bradley closed out the season with the Arizona Diamondbacks' Triple-A club in Reno, which is one of the most unforgiving pitching environments in the minor leagues. Even with his struggles, Bradley checked in at the No. 12 spot on Baseball America's midseason top 50 prospects list. 

Beginning in October, Bradley is slated to pitch in the Arizona Fall League, which will provide him with an opportunity to regain his form.

When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues

After missing so much time in 2014, Bradley is a virtual lock to begin 2015 in Triple-A. If he dominates in the early part of the season, Bradley will be the first pitcher that the D-backs call on next year when the big league rotation has an opening.  

4. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets

Age: 22

Highest Minor League Level: Triple-A

2014 Stats: 9-7, 4.60 ERA, 

The Track Record

Noah Syndergaard spent the entire 2014 season in Triple-A. His 4.60 ERA doesn't inspire much confidence, but it's important to put that number into context. Syndergaard was just 21 years old for nearly all of the season and also missed time with an elbow injury. Plus, Las Vegas, the home of the New York Mets Triple-A club, is an extremely hitter-friendly environment. 

Digging into the numbers, the top prospect did an excellent job of producing swings-and-misses. Syndergaard posted a 9.8 K/9 ratio, which is right in line with his 10.0 K/9 ratio in parts of five minor league seasons. 

When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues

With tons of young pitching at the big league level, the Mets can afford to be patient with Syndergaard. The best course of action would be for the right-hander to excel in Triple-A during the first half of the 2015 season before breaking into New York's rotation after the All-Star break. 

3. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals

Age: 20

Highest Minor League Level: Low-A

2014 Stats: 10-2, 2.20 ERA, 20 GS, 98 IP, 70 H, 

The Track Record

As you can see in the video above, Lucas Giolito has a ridiculously deceptive delivery. 

The hitters of the South Atlantic League didn't have much success against Giolito in 2014, as he went 10-2 with a 2.20 ERA in 20 starts. That performance resulted in the 20-year-old winning the Washington Nationals' pitcher of the year award. That feat is especially noteworthy considering that the right-hander missed much of the 2013 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. 

The Nats landed Giolito with the No. 16 pick in the 2012 draft, but he would have gone even higher if not for suffering an elbow injury during his senior season of high school.

When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues

Just 20 years old, Giolito is on pace to split the 2015 season between High-A and Double-A. Following such a time line, it's not unreasonable to think that the starter could arrive in the Washington D.C. toward the end of the 2016 season. 

2. Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies

Age: 22

Highest Minor League Level: Double-A

2014 Stats: 10-4, 3.91 ERA, 24 starts, 124.1 IP, 107 H, 54 ER, 10 HR, 41 BB, 113 K

The Track Record

Jon Gray spent the 2014 season, his first full campaign as a professional, pitching for the Colorado Rockies Double-A affiliate. In 24 outings, the right-hander put up a 10-5 record with a 3.91 ERA. 

There are no questions about the 22-year-old's physical abilities. Gray's fastball, which darts into the zone, routinely clocks in at 100 mph, per MLB.com. However, his mental approach to going after hitters can still use some refinement, as his Double-A manager Kevin Riggs remarked, via Nick Groke of The Denver Post: "He’s got to set the tone from Pitch 1—when he embraces that and understands that, the sky’s the limit for him. Because he does have good stuff.”

When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues

As Riggs explained to Groke, Gray is likely to open up the 2015 season back in Double-A with the Tulsa Drillers. The goal for the pitcher and the organization should be for Gray to earn an early promotion to Triple-A and a September call-up to the major league club. 

1. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Age: 18

Highest Minor League Level: High-A

2014 Stats: 2-2, 2.36 ERA, 25 G, 20 GS, 87.2 IP, 60 H, 23 ER, 4 HR, 37 BB, 109 K

The Track Record

The most impressive part of Julio Urias' 2014 season wasn't that he posted a 2.36 ERA or that he limited the opposition to a .194 batting average. What was most impressive is that he did that despite the fact that he didn't turn 18 until the middle of August. The left-hander pitcher was 6.2 years younger than the average player in the Cal League, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

Those incredible numbers have resulted in comparisons to Fernando Valenzuela, who won a Cy Young Award for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Urias told Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times that he's "proud" of that praise while acknowledging he still has all sorts of work to do. 

"I still have to pitch. I still have to build my career."

When He'll Arrive in the Big Leagues

According to Jim Callis of MLB.com, Urias is already capable of pitching in the major leagues. Considering the lefty's remarkable upside, the Dodgers will want to make sure that they don't rush Urias to Dodger Stadium. Still, half a season in Double-A is likely all that stands between Urias and the major leagues. 

Note: All stats courtesy of MLB.com. All videos courtesy of YouTube.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.