Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the Kansas City Royals
When the Kansas City traded a package of talent, including top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi, to the Tampa Bay Rays for James Shields before the 2013 season, the Royals were giving themselves a two-year window to end nearly three decades of futility.
They did just that, though it'd be a lie to say that one-and-done in the playoffs was how the Royals envisioned things playing out after a 29-year absence from the postseason stage. That said, general manager Dayton Moore told MLB.com's Dick Kaegel that he wouldn't change a thing about that deal:
"It's everything that we hoped it would be. When you make deals, you hope and expect them to work for both organizations. I think it's turned out that way. It strengthened our pitching to a point where we were able to play competitive baseball from the first day to the last.
"
While you'd have to be dead inside to not be disappointed in the end result, Royals fans should be proud of the team's performance and optimistic about its chances to continue having success in the future.
Yet changes are coming to Kansas City. Let's take a look at what's in store for the Royals as the long offseason begins.
Payroll Breakdown
1 of 4
Not counting potential buyouts for players with options on their contracts for 2015—but including the $1 million due to Bruce Chen, who the team released in early September—Kansas City has $44.75 million committed to six players for 2015.
That's roughly $6 million more than the team's Opening Day payroll in 2011 and just under half of the franchise-record $92 million payroll that Kansas City opened 2014 with.
But before you start dreaming of the Royals going after the biggest names on the free-agent market, consider that 12 players—nearly half of the roster—are due raises through arbitration.
The good news is that while the club didn't crack the two-million mark in attendance this season, it came awfully close. Per ESPN, just over 1.95 million fans spun Kauffman Stadium's turnstiles, an increase of more than 200,000 fans from 2013.
That bump in attendance could find owner David Glass providing general manager Dayton Moore with a bump in his operating budget—though people expecting the club to crack $100 million are setting themselves up for disappointment.
Arbitration-Eligible Players
2 of 4
Both of Kansas City's corner infielders, its starting center fielder and more than half of the bullpen—including the closer—are due substantial raises in arbitration. That's going to eat into that perceived payroll flexibility that we just talked about.
On the table below, projected salaries are loosely based on what the player listed for comparison received, either as a one-year deal or through the arbitration process, at similar points in their careers. You can find the exact figures for those players by clicking on the links included.
| Lorenzo Cain | OF | $546,000 | $2,500,000 | Gerardo Parra |
| Louis Coleman | RP | $537,000 | Non-tender candidate | N/A |
| Tim Collins | RP | $1,362,000 | $2,400,000 | Brian Matusz |
| Aaron Crow | RP | $1,475,000 | $2,500,000 | Wilton Lopez |
| Danny Duffy | SP | $526,000 | $2,000,000 | Francisco Liriano |
| Jarrod Dyson | OF | $530,000 | $2,000,000 | Gregor Blanco |
| Kelvin Herrera | RP | $522,500 | $1,750,000 | Luke Gregerson |
| Greg Holland | RP | $4,675,000 | $7,500,000 | Chris Perez |
| Eric Hosmer | 1B | $3,600,000 | $6,500,000 | James Loney |
| Erik Kratz | C | $510,200 | $850,000 | Drew Butera |
| Mike Moustakas | 3B | $549,000 | $2,350,000 | Trevor Plouffe |
| Jayson Nix | UTIL | $950,000 | Will become FA | N/A |
| Totals | $15,782,200 | $30,350,000 |
If my projections are anywhere near accurate, that's a significant increase, one that puts the team's 2015 payroll in the neighborhood of $74 million with 17 of 25 roster spots filled.
Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer are both candidates for long-term extensions, and it would behoove the Royals to get the pair locked up now, as they're both just hitting the primes of their respective careers.
Greg Holland has been superb in the ninth inning for the Royals, and both sides expressed interest in a long-term extension last winter. But after a second consecutive All-Star season, Holland may become too expensive for the team's taste.
As ESPN's Jim Bowden notes in a recent insider-only post where he ranks the playoff bullpens (spoiler alert: The Royals are No. 1), Holland converted 46-of-48 save opportunities during the regular season and has both the most saves and highest conversion percentage in baseball since May 10, 2013.
Stats like that are certainly going to come up in negotiations, and with Wade Davis dominant as a setup man, the Royals could look to move him into the closer's role.
Then, of course, is the curious case of what to do with Mike Moustakas.
Kansas City isn't going to cut ties with him, as his defense and occasional power make him a valuable commodity. But despite that pop, he still doesn't hit for average or get on base with any consistency, further evidenced by his postseason numbers (.222 BA, .255 OBP).
While he'd no longer be a blip on the team's payroll radar at $2.35 million, Moustakas would still be a relative bargain, even if he produces at the same level he did in 2014.
Players with Options and Kansas City's Free Agents
3 of 4
One of the worst-kept secrets in baseball was that 2014 would be the last time James Shields wore a Kansas City uniform.
While the Royals have indicated that they'll try to bring him back, according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, the team's ace is a lock to receive far more lucrative offers on the open market than the Royals can contend with.
It should take the Royals all of about 15 seconds to exercise their $7 million team option on Wade Davis, which seems like a bargain considering the absolutely dominant season he just had.
As for the rest of the players set to hit free agency, things aren't quite as clear.
| Nori Aoki | OF | $1,918,750 | |
| Billy Butler | DH/1B | $8,500,000 | $12.5M team option, $1M buyout |
| Wade Davis | RP | $4,800,000 | $7M team option, $2.5M buyout |
| Scott Downs | RP | $3,750,000 | |
| Jason Frasor | RP | $1,750,000 | |
| Luke Hochevar | RP | $5,210,000 | March 2013 Tommy John surgery |
| Raul Ibanez | DH/1B/OF | $2,750,000 | |
| James Shields | SP | $13,500,000 | |
| Josh Willingham | OF/DH | $7,000,000 |
While he spent much of the season scuffling at the plate, Nori Aoki put the Royals on his back down the stretch, hitting .379 with a .926 OPS in 24 September games, and seems like a likely candidate to re-sign with the club.
Both Billy Butler and Josh Willingham have track records of hitting for power. But neither one produced at a particularly high level for Kansas City, and Willingham is expected to retire, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
(Willingham has since disputed that report, but Berardino stands by his story.)
If the Royals can work out an extension with Butler, one that comes with a lower 2015 salary than their team option would cost ($12.5 million), "Country Breakfast" will return. Otherwise, the Royals will look elsewhere for a new designated hitter.
As for the bullpen arms, Downs and Frasor figure to test free agency, while Hochevar could be a candidate for a minor league or incentive-laden one-year pact as he works his way back from season-ending surgery.
Potential Free Agent and Trade Targets
4 of 4
Kansas City could potentially use an upgrade at third base (we've seen Moustakas get hot before only to disappoint during the regular season), but the best free-agent options available, Chase Headley and Pablo Sandoval, are both going to be too expensive for the Royals to get seriously involved with.
The same can be said about the team's need for a front-line starter to take Shields' place atop the rotation. While it's fun to dream, neither Jon Lester nor Max Scherzer will be coming to Kansas City as anything other than a visiting player in 2015.
While it was noted during the TBS telecast of the Wild Card Game that Moore indicated the Royals won't be major players in free agency, don't take that to mean that they won't be adding anyone. There are a number of intriguing options available, and the Royals could always look for improvements via trade as well.
- Brandon McCarthy, SP: McCarthy completely turned his season around after being traded from Arizona to New York, going 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in 90.1 innings over 14 starts for the Yankees.
- Mark Reynolds 1B/3B/DH: He doesn't hit for average, but coming off his seventh consecutive season with at least 20 home runs, he'd help solve the team's power issues. That he plays above average defense at both corner infield positions is a bonus, providing insurance against injury or ineffectiveness by Hosmer or Moustakas.
- Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF/DH, Arizona Diamondbacks: Trumbo was a major disappointment in his first season in Arizona, missing significant time with a broken foot and proving to be a liability in the outfield. With a new regime running things, the D-Backs could look to move Trumbo's power back to the American League, where he could serve as a full-time designated hitter.
- Edinson Volquez, SP: Questions about his command and control will keep his earning power down (he led the National League with 15 wild pitches this season), but Volquez has the ability to miss bats and posted the lowest walk rate (3.3 BB/9) of his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2014.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs; all payroll and salary information is courtesy of Cot's Contracts. All player comparisons link to Baseball Prospectus.
Want to talk Royals offseason plans or anything baseball related? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR
.jpg?w=600 "Pickens' Trade Ultimatum")
.png?w=600 "2027 NFL Mock Draft 🔮")
.jpg?w=600 "Jags Tried Trading 2027 1st 😳")
.jpg?w=600 "Breaking News")