Predicting the Final 2014 MLB Playoff Race Weekend
Agree or disagree with Bud Selig's decision to implement a second wild-card team in each league, what can't be denied is how it has created at least slithers of drama going into the final weekend of the regular season.
Going into the final three days, there are still two division titles to be had, two wild-card berths to be decided and home-field advantages to be determined pretty much all over the place. If you take stock in how October is going to shape up, then the next few days are critical.
Even if your team has clinched a playoff spot or division championship, there are still plenty of bows to put on those banners.
Whether you have enjoyed Selig's tenure as commissioner or despised it, at least he is leaving us with a little bit of a show as his final regular season fades into history in his last year at baseball's helm.
The Tigers Will Win the American League Central
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The Tigers stalk into their final three games with a two-game lead over the Kansas City Royals, and all that stands between them and a fourth consecutive division title are the lousy Minnesota Twins, who won't be starting their best arm, Phil Hughes, in this series. Meanwhile, the Tigers are scheduled to send two of their best pitchers to the mound.
It's not like the Royals are playing world-beaters in the Chicago White Sox, and the White Sox won't be throwing ace Chris Sale against them. Still, even if the Royals find a way to sweep a four-game series, it won't be enough because the Tigers are not going to take a nap against Minnesota.
That is one of the beauties of the second wild card. It forces teams to play until the end, because now it means more than just who or where you play. The finality of a one-game playoff versus a five-game series is such an incentive to win the division that it wouldn't be a surprise for the Tigers to pitch David Price into the eighth or ninth inning in Sunday's season finale.
Justin Verlander spoke to just that Thursday night, courtesy of Jackson Alexander of MLB.com. "Everybody wants to make it to the playoffs, obviously, but you never want to settle for a Wild Card or just squeaking in," Verlander said. "You want to win your division. That's the goal here."
The Cardinals Will Win the National League Central
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Much like its counterpart division in the other league, the NL Central is simply a matter of one team being ahead and playing a cellar dweller. The St. Louis Cardinals go into the weekend a game ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates for the NL Central lead, and they will have the good fortune of facing the last-place Arizona Diamondbacks to end the season. On top of that, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright are scheduled to pitch in the series.
That doesn't bode well for the Pirates overtaking the Cardinals with three games to play in Cincinnati.
The Pirates are also playing well, winners of 16 of their last 20, but because the Cardinals have Wacha and Wainwright in line to start this weekend, they will have enough to take the division and avoid the dreaded one-game playoff.
AL Wild-Card Leaders Won't Change, but the Venue Is Midwest-Bound
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Two months ago this would have been an absurd prediction, downright silly. But with the Oakland A's continuing their unreal tanking, the Royals will host Oakland in the AL Wild Card Game.
The Royals have won four of their previous five games, while the A's enter Friday having lost seven of their previous 10, and they actually have a losing record against the Texas Rangers, who are hosting their final four-game series.
The A's have a chance, though. They pitch Scott Kazmir, Jeff Samardzija and Sonny Gray in the final three games, and those arms could produce three wins in spite of the team's very recent history no matter who pitches.
But the odds continue to stack against the A's since the Royals hold the tiebreaker if these teams end up with the same record, meaning the game would still be played at Kauffman Stadium next week.
The Seattle Mariners are the wild card of the wild-card race, sitting two games behind Oakland for the second spot and with Felix Hernandez waiting on his Sunday turn. The problem is the Mariners face the Los Angeles Angels with Jered Weaver set to throw the opener Friday night. Sweeping that series seems a bit too far-fetched to figure Seattle for the postseason.
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The NL Wild-Card Positions Will Hold
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Frankly, it's hard to trust the San Francisco Giants right now. They started their final series having lost eight of their previous 11, and it comes against the San Diego Padres, a team that just swept the Giants last weekend.
Plus, if the Giants don't win both games pitched by Jake Peavy (Saturday) and Madison Bumgarner—he could pitch Sunday if this race still has life—then they likely don't have a shot to jump the Pittsburgh Pirates for the top wild-card spot.
The Pirates demolished the Atlanta Braves on Thursday and hold a one-game lead over San Francisco for the first wild-card position. The Pirates play the Reds over the weekend, and they will certainly use whatever bullets they need considering this season tells us they need home-field advantage more than the Giants. The Pirates are 51-30 at home and 36-42 on the road. The Giants are 43-35 at home and 43-38 on the road.
The Angels Will Earn Home-Field Advantage in AL
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This isn't a limb-busting assumption, but the Los Angeles Angels will hang on to the best record in the Junior Circuit and take the home-field advantage for as long as they are alive in October.
The Angels visit the plummeting Seattle Mariners for their final three games, and with a three-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles for the league's top record, the bet here is that even if the Orioles win their final set in Toronto, the Angels won't get swept in Seattle.
The Angels are also going to be gunning for this privilege. They are a solid club on the road (46-32), but they are clearly a better team when they play in Orange County (52-29). The pitching, which is already something of a question, also fares better at home in terms of ERA, WHIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The Nationals Will Creep Away with Home-Field Advantage in NL
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This has so much potential to be really interesting, but it won't be.
On Friday, the Nationals play a second consecutive doubleheader, meaning four games in two days. But as unappealing as that might sound for Washington, the team with the best record in the NL, it has the luxury of two of the league's top pitchers, Doug Fister and Stephen Strasburg, throwing two of the first three weekend games at home against the Miami Marlins.
And if that isn't enough, the Nationals have handled the Marlins nicely this season, winning 10 of the 15 meetings.
Those two starts and that track record should be enough for the Nats to hold back the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are 2.5 games behind, and maintain home-field advantage throughout the NL side of the postseason.
AL Weekend Star: Torii Hunter, Tigers
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Torii Hunter has been a vital piece to Detroit's lineup all season, but since Sept. 7 he'd hit .382/.403/.544 with a .947 OPS and .400 BABIP before going 1-for-4 on Thursday.
Hunter has also feasted on the Twins. In 14 games (61 plate appearances) this season prior to Thursday, the 39-year-old hit .404/.426/.596 with a 1.023 OPS, six doubles, a triple, a home run and 10 RBI.
Taking those two stretches into consideration, there's no reason to think Hunter will slow down in the final series of the regular season when the Tigers will need to win to clinch the division.
NL Weekend Star: Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
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Adam Wainwright is scheduled to pitch Sunday on a day that could decide the NL Central. As he tries to bulk up his case for the league's second-best starting pitcher—Clayton Kershaw is going to win this Cy Young Award going away—and tune up for October, we might see him in shutdown mode against the Diamondbacks.
Wainwright has allowed two total runs in his last four starts (33 innings), striking out 26 and walking four. That is a 0.55 ERA, and opponents hit .197/.223/.231 against him in that stretch.
Also, Wainwright faced the Diamondbacks on May 20 in St. Louis, and all he did that day was throw a complete-game, one-hit shutout with nine strikeouts and no walks.
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